There's something big missing in the conversation re: how fast we could potentially develop and deploy a vaccine at large scale. This article does a great job stating realistic timeframes (12-18mo) while also discussing how novel approaches may alter that: newyorker.com/news/news-desk…
Noteworthy quote from that piece above: "A covid-19 vaccine developed, licensed, and manufactured at a global scale in twelve months would be an unprecedented, remarkable, even revolutionary achievement. No other vaccine has come close to being developed that quickly."
However, what's not being mentioned is that these timeframe estimates are based on historical development timelines, when the workforce has not been significantly impacted. Vaccines don't just develop themselves. They're developed and manufactured by humans.
We've already seen multiple workplaces - *including* biomedical research institutes - implement work-from-home policies for anyone other than "essential personnel" (which is often limited to key staff who maintain, for example, cell culture or vivarium facilities).
If widespread workplace shutdowns or restrictions even marginally impact the level of productivity of the remaining staff, this throws off our estimates for typical vaccine development timeframes.
Keep in mind also that individual researchers may have ill family members to care for, disrupted childcare routines due to partners' workplace shutdowns, & other disruptions in their lives that make 12-hour days in the lab unfeasible, even if that is their typical modus operandi.
