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What are the long-term effects of COVID19?

Some have a binary mental model: either you die, or you live & all is well. But with SARS & MERS, many patients had long-term respiratory issues. This paper urges follow-up imaging to see if COVID19 is similar.
ajronline.org/doi/10.2214/AJ…
Why bring this up? Some people say things like "it's only a 2% death rate".

But hospitalization rates are much higher. People don't always bounce back fully from an illness serious enough to hospitalize them. SARS & MERS caused permanent damage for some.
ajronline.org/doi/10.2214/AJ…
By the way, the authors here are serious people: radiologists from UCLA & USC.

They aren't sure that long-term damage will occur, but they think it's *plausible* given SARS/MERS data and the severity of many COVID19 cases. They're calling for monitoring.
ajronline.org/doi/10.2214/AJ…
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded.

The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land. Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.
The US is protected by the Atlantic and the Pacific. It has ~800 military bases worldwide. Global surveillance. Aircraft carriers, Predator drones, nuclear missiles. Gameplans for terrorism and even the invasion of Canada.

But the virus is asymmetric. It bypasses all of that.
The issue is also the speed. This is a rare true exponential. The virus has no work/life balance, it really does operate 24/7. We can't take the weekend off. It doesn't move at a human pace.
Read 5 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
In China, the lockdown order came from above. It was executed by a state run by technocrats, and the population generally bought in.

In the US, lockdown is a bottom-up push from social media. The state isn't run by technocrats, the population isn't fully bought in.
Put another way, American lockdown is a clone of what Italy did, which is a clone of what China.

But in the language of a product manager, if you just clone a feature in isolation you might miss a bunch of details that make it work in one context but not as well in another.
So, we should know *exactly* what the Chinese did, and determine which of those features are compatible with our ethics and which are not, and then execute.

The Donald McNeil clip on Maddow the other day gives a good overview of what the Chinese did.
msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/…
Read 8 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
If you are overweight or over 40, you don’t want to get COVID19 in Seattle.
How suddenly we went from “the virus is contained, you paranoid lunatics” to “we need to make military triage decisions and you’re not going to make it.”

And this is just the beginning, in one city, just the first few weeks. American Wuhan.
Remember, back on Jan 23 when lockdown of Wuhan was announced China only had 25 confirmed deaths.

They may well have underreported it, but those were the numbers they used to justify lockdown. Seattle is already above that with 40+ deaths.
cnn.com/asia/live-news…
Read 3 tweets

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巴丢草 Badiucao
@badiucao
landed in Melbourne
sore throat，sneezing and coughing on place
not sure fever
passengers from Italy sits right beside me…
the whole plan has coughing sound through the flight
I am doing the right thing to report myself to a airport medic now
I will do a test of #COVIDー19
2/ taken to a room for temperature test no fever
went through a question list 4 symptom history，if i met anyone from high risk country China italy
i told them i was in Prague 4 film festival & met many people around world.
but seems they are about letting me go.
3/ airport medicals are calling authority to ask about my measurement，go home or stay for test maybe…
seems phones got difficulty to go through…
personally i wish to stay and have test asap.
but i need to respect their decision.
#COVID2019
Read 9 tweets
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Mr. Douglas McGarrett
@ltc_hicks
Heute hat die WHO das Coronavirus #COVIDー19 zur „Pandemie“ erklärt - auch wenn es nicht die geringste Spur einer Pandemie gibt. Eine Pandemie kann der Zustand sein, wenn die Todesrate bis zur Infektionsrate mehr als 12% erreicht.
In Europa liegt die Sterblichkeitsrate bei etwa 0,4% oder weniger. Mit Ausnahme von Italien, einem Sonderfall, bei dem die höchste Sterblichkeitsrate 6% betrug.
China, wo die Sterblichkeitsrate vor wenigen Wochen mit etwa 3% ihren Höhepunkt erreichte, liegt wieder bei 0,7% - und geht rapide zurück, während China die volle Kontrolle über die Krankheit übernimmt - und das mit Hilfe eines nicht näher genannten Medikaments
Read 81 tweets
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Kwik Kwong
@KwikKwong
THREAD - #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #SARS_COV_2 #FLU Do your home work on #VitaminD3 and #VitaminC. Not enough money in it? Why isn’t anyone promoting it? What’s the 25OHD serum levels of those infected or that have died? ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/Vit…
As an A1AD carrier and 15+yearly sufferer of chronic #bronchitis needing multiple antibiotics every year prior to ‘09 #swineflu scare - I thought if I got It I wouldn’t survive.
I read up on# respiratory issues and the benefits of #VitaminD3. So I started a 5000iu/day regime in ‘09 raising my 25OHD serum levels to 60 ng/ml. I have not had #bronchitis an antibiotic or the #flu since, no longer needed an inhaler for my asthma. Just wanted to put this out
Read 19 tweets
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Natalie Exner Dean
@nataliexdean
As dozens of clinical trials are underway for #COVIDー19, a natural question is... why don’t we already have licensed treatments for other severe types of #coronavirus like #MERS and #SARS?

A thread.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
1/8 Types of therapies being considered for #COVIDー19 include antibodies and antivirals, like lopinavir (licensed for HIV) and remdesivir (developed for Ebola but shown to be ineffective in the recent PALM trial in DRC).
2/8 The challenge is that there is rarely a “homerun” with these products. They tend to have a weak/moderate effect, even when used early after symptom onset. Thus, we need randomized clinical trials to tell if they actually work.
Read 9 tweets
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The Menachery Lab
@TheMenacheryLab
Been doing my best to avoid twittering over the break, but a rumored return of #SARS in 2020 caused me to dive into twitter and google translate for more information. Here are some random facts, thoughts, and speculation on what may or may not be happening with in Wuhan.
First, #SARS does not necessarily mean SARS-CoV, the virus that caused the 2002-03 worldwide outbreak. Instead, it could refer to many illnesses like bird flu bacterial pneumonias as in the past before id. However, the description of atypical viral pneumonia echoes of SARS-CoV.
In reading google translate, a seafood market in Wuhan has been associated with all cases. The good news is that no healthcare workers seem to have been infected. This was a major factor in the spread of SARS and MERS CoV spread.
Read 16 tweets

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#CDC #Koalas #conservative #H1N1 #MERS #Nose #coronavirus #seattlecovid19 #data #Apart #Boston #LIVE #Buddha #ACE2 #CoronaOutbreak #RedCross #Bangkok #TGIF #Agenda21 #Venezuela #HandsOffVenezuela #expired #TiharJail #coronavirusus #Censorship

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