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Question: What are the chances that one (or more) individuals in a large event will be #COVID19 positive?

Answer: high enough that organizers of large-scale events should be prepared to cancel, in near-term...

1/3
The reason is that even if the vast majority of individuals are disease-free, the collective risk goes up rapidly with event size. Risks are real and consequences for transmission in large and even moderate-sized gatherings can be substantial (see #Biogen)

2/3
Canceling, postponing, and/or rescheduling large-scale events should be considered - now.

Code/analysis for figure:
github.com/jsweitz/covid-…

3/3
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Joshua Weitz
@joshuasweitz
1/I am writing to encourage any who are unfamiliar with @joshtpm to read this piece from October 2016 on Trump's role in facilitating the rise of anti-Semitism:

talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/storm-a…
2/This article is insightful and unfortunately prescient. It's also a must-read in light of Trump's planned visit to Pittsburgh this week.
3/The sections that I have been reflecting on center on the apparent contradiction between Trump's white nationalist rhetoric (both explicit and implicit) and the fact that he has a Jewish son-in-law and daughter.
Read 10 tweets

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Jake aka Korean Jew Trading
@koreanjewcrypto
I know this sounds crazy but here it goes. One of the most insane chess moves ever by China. They release #COVIDー19 into their population during trade war and Hong Kong protests. They have never been scared to sacrifice for their greater goals, this explains their prompt actions
2. China has experienced many pandemic like scares in past and never reacted this strong and decisively. They basically but a billion people in house arrest by the time the disease had killed about 200 people. Means they knew exactly how serious it was and how to stop it
3. At the time it starts we are in trade war with China and on verge of hot war with Iran. Guess which two countries get hurt worst right away? China and Iran... seems pretty convenient for us no? I’m sure a lot of countries are seeing it that way at the moment
Read 9 tweets
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Robᵉʳᵗ Graham😷
@ErrataRob
Nobody in this video is buying an excessive amount of toilet paper. Everybody is buying only a single unit of the smallest size that Costco sells.
If you are a Costco shopping, then you tend to buy in bulk. You might buy toilet paper only once every few months, even for a large family. Unless you restocked in the last couple weeks, you'll likely get another package now.
So that's what you see among Costco shoppers: people buying that next unit of toilet paper.
Read 6 tweets
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ChristosArgyropoulos
@ChristosArgyrop
How can #Nephrology prepare for the unavoidable spread of #COVID? How can continue caring for our patients, with as little disruption of business continuity in a matter that does not increase risk for our patients, staff & ourselves?
This is ours (@UNMHSC) plan (long read)
First some background about our group: we direct 13 outpatient dialysis clinics *all over a very large state* (~700 pts, 15% on home dialysis), cover two hospitals (including the only Level 1 trauma center in NM), numerous CKD clinics, run a small transplant program, while also
teaching and doing research (both inside the division & in the 2 division sponsored research institutes). We number in the 30s, a figure that includes faculty/staff/fellows. Therefore a #COVID19 management plan has to cover the diverse roles & the diverse missions of our group
Read 43 tweets
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Robᵉʳᵗ Graham
@ErrataRob
I keep seeing this article go around. It's the height of silliness, spending more effort on political attacks against "preppers" than discussion what you should do to prepare.
blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/p…
There's a good chance we'll end up like Wuhan with most of the population stuck at home for weeks, even a couple of months. So do the obvious thing and stock up on some canned food and medical supplies you can't do without, and read: ready.gov/kit
That's the practical persons guide to preparing. The SciAm op-ed was the "Young Comrades Guide to Socially Responsible Preparedness", the same suggestions, but colored by politics.
Read 12 tweets
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Moosa Shifaz
@MoosaShifaz
Cannot agree more here. Basically this is contingency planning for Covid-19. Authorities needs to start working thoroughly by creating scenarios and responsive actions based on the situation. As per WHO risk assessment this outbreak is globally on category “HIGH”.(1/11)
PREPARE FOR A PANDEMIC! #COVIDー19 meets 2 of the 3 factors needed to be classified as a Pandemic; 1- illness resulting death 2- Sustained person-to-person spread 3- Worldwide spread. In no time we have to hear this as it has spiked on foreign lands in the past few days (2/11).
Although some of the efforts of preparedness have been done which needs to be escalated and boosted by the Maldivian authorities. I Would like to highlight few of the steps for better preparation. (3/11)
Read 11 tweets
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Ryan Chase
@GunReformRyan
We desperately need #GunReform laws in the U.S. #MassacreMitch has an A+ rating by the NRA, & has taken $ MILLIONS, ensuring no gun laws pass.

R’s are handmaidens to the gun lobby, ensuring thousands die yearly, so long as they get #NRABloodMoney. courier-journal.com/story/news/pol…
Now #MassacreMitch has stated he will only allow a Senate vote on #GunReform laws IF #VeryStableGenius is guaranteed to sign it. He wants to be absolved of any responsibility.

What.

A.

Leader.
These deaths are on his hands though. He requests to be known as the Grim Reaper on passing legislation. He certainly lives up to the name.

The NRA is in Republicans’ pocketbooks as well as ears, telling them how to spread fear & lies about guns to the public.

We know better.
Read 384 tweets

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