Thread by @chamath

COVID-19 impacts:

1. Unnecessary death of good, earnest people

Reason: inundated hospitals leads to war-time triage decision making. History will point the finger directly at POTUS and inept government response weeks ago.

2. Massive unemployment.

Reason: consumer confidence zero, tourism crippled and social gatherings of all forms disappear for time being. These things support, directly and indirectly, a whole host of industries and businesses.

3. Wealth destruction for anyone holding equities.

Reason: supply shock leading to demand shock has diminished confidence in long term prospects for all companies all over the world.

4. More nationalism and tribalism

Reason: advocates for closed borders and nationalized economies will have valid arguments for restrictive policies

5. Small businesses of many forms will need bailouts.

Reason: bad working capital dynamics and can’t weather an 18month downturn

6. Major industries will need bailouts

Reason: poor balance sheet and inability to absorb demand hiccups

7. Credit bubble pops

Reason: too many companies become zombie companies and can’t pay back debt