Trump: "no nation's more prepared, more resilient than the United States"
My #prediction: Trump's wrong. #coronavirus COVID-19 will kill more per capita in the US than in China. Today:
- US: 36 deaths (0.1 per million inhabitants)
- China: 3169 deaths (2.3 per M)
Here's why:
1/N
My #prediction: Trump's wrong. #coronavirus COVID-19 will kill more per capita in the US than in China. Today:
- US: 36 deaths (0.1 per million inhabitants)
- China: 3169 deaths (2.3 per M)
Here's why:
1/N
1) The US has fewer hospital beds per capita than many countries including China, Italy, South Korea, Japan, etc:
In Wuhan, Lombardy, and Iran, COVID-19 overwhelms hospitals with surges of new patients.
Doctors have to choose who to care for...
2/N
In Wuhan, Lombardy, and Iran, COVID-19 overwhelms hospitals with surges of new patients.
Doctors have to choose who to care for...
2/N
...due to lack of supplies (ventilators, beds.) They have to choose who to save and who to let die. In Lombardy they can't even alleviate the burden by transporting patients to less burdened hospitals because new patients arrive at a faster rate than they can be airlifted out
3/N
3/N
This is why we observe a higher Case Fatality Ratio in Italy (6.6%) than in China (3.9%,) and why the CFR in the US will likely be worse than in China.
China not only has 50% more beds per capita than the US (4.3 vs 2.8 beds per 1000 inhabitants,)...
4/N
China not only has 50% more beds per capita than the US (4.3 vs 2.8 beds per 1000 inhabitants,)...
4/N
...but China also alleviated the problem by constructing temporary hospitals with thousands of beds in less than 2 weeks. I do not think the US will be as fast as them when it comes to speed-construction.
5/N
5/N
2) Americans are older than Chinese, eg.:
22.6% of Chinese are over 55
29.0% of Americans are over 55
And COVID-19 is significantly more fatal in older people: a 60-year-old is 10x more likely to die than a 30-year-old
So I expect more deaths/capita in the US than in China
6/N
22.6% of Chinese are over 55
29.0% of Americans are over 55
And COVID-19 is significantly more fatal in older people: a 60-year-old is 10x more likely to die than a 30-year-old
So I expect more deaths/capita in the US than in China
6/N
By the way table #1 above is from the China CDC report, a very instructive report to read:
7/N
7/N
3) The US will do worse than China in containing the pandemic.
China is an autocratic government and thus could apply extreme response measures including: the complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities, prohibition of attendance at work(!) and school, ...
8/N
China is an autocratic government and thus could apply extreme response measures including: the complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities, prohibition of attendance at work(!) and school, ...
8/N
...prohibiting people from exiting their home more than once a week (can you imagine that in the US? I can't), etc.
Extreme measures have been extremely successful: the number of new cases per day in China has dropped from 4000 to <30 per day:
9/N
Extreme measures have been extremely successful: the number of new cases per day in China has dropped from 4000 to <30 per day:
9/N
However large-scale quarantines impede on freedom, and Americans are protective of that. US authorities are less likely to apply similar measures, Americans are less likely to tolerate them, etc. So the US is unlikely to contain the pandemic as well as China
10/N
10/N
In summary:
• less containment = more infections
• out of infected patients, the fatality ratio will be higher because patients are older than Chinese, and hospital surge capacity is worse than China
Therefore, there'll be more deaths per capita in the US than in China.
11/11
• less containment = more infections
• out of infected patients, the fatality ratio will be higher because patients are older than Chinese, and hospital surge capacity is worse than China
Therefore, there'll be more deaths per capita in the US than in China.
11/11
