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If Corona is spreading worse than the flu, NY should have now at least tens of thousands of cases. "Maybe we do but we don't test enough." Ok so work off of the (flawed) 12% hospitalization rate: If NY had 20K cases, there should be 2,400 in the hospital of but only 50 are.
Reporters with their flawed math as above are pushing @NYGovCuomo to do crazy things. For now, he is holding the line as much as he can. The reporting pushes a double bad: VERY high contagion AND also VERY high severity rate. For now, data suggests it's either or. Not both.
My thread about OH explains the deadly flaw in the math:
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More from @YossiGestetner see all

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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
THREAD: Everyone is talking how S Korea handled Coronavirus well.

-Their first known case was a day BEFORE the US.

- Despite not doing what SK did, US severity cases (critically ill + dead) as of March 15 is smaller relatively speaking. (US population is 6.5 X the size of SK).
2/

For all the talk of South Korea TESTING TESTING TESTING, they have tested only 251,940 people as of Sat March 15 (not counting 17K tests with no results in). In a country of 51 million people that's not even half of a percent!

It's not so much testing as headlines suggest.
3/

Of the completed tests in South Korea, 96.7% test negative. They have no Coronavirus.

- 75 people died. That's 0.91% of cases. But they tested only a small portion of their population so how many cases are missing (and the death rate is thus maybe lower)?

Pls keep reading.
Read 16 tweets
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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
@StephenLevin33 @NYCMayor @NYGovCuomo Actually sir. Spain closed the schools so the children spent the days at the park and beach with their grandparents which is bad news because 78% Corona deaths in Italy are in deep seniors. Read this thread please. 20 tweets.

https://t.co/TELQkHAb0O
@StephenLevin33 @NYCMayor @NYGovCuomo EVERYONE is melting about Italy melting but NOT ONE of their deaths to date is in anyone under the age of 29. Only 4 deaths are ages 30-49! The lesson from Italy is that the hospitals can't take stress; they melted there with only 1,000 severe cases! SO STEP UP ACCESS TO CARE!
@StephenLevin33 @NYCMayor @NYGovCuomo Councilman, you should be tweeting more about hospitals and and senior homes than schools! Our system can't take even a few thousand severe cases and that's potentally happening no matter the schools. So FOCUS ON UPPING ACCESS TO CARE!

cc @NYCSpeakerCoJo @CoreyinNYC
Read 7 tweets
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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
1/ THREAD of what know and/or what we are told:

- Coronavirus is VERY contagious so anyone who was in the same room of an infected person (even hours later) needs to quarantine for 14 days because they may have it.

- 14 days because symptoms pop at day 5-6 but some cases pop on
2/ day 10 so be safe there is a 14 day window.

- In Italy, many deaths happened at day 9 of getting the virus which means hospitalization starts a few days before that.

- Hospitalization Rate of Coronavirus, we are told, is 10-15 %. The Death Rate is 1-3 percent.
3/ Basically we are told that:

Day 0 - Exposure.

Day 5-14 Coronavirus hits

Day 10-19 hospitalization

Days 14-23 mass deaths is happening.

Of 1 million cases, the above math means 100,000 to 150,000 in the hospital (10% to 15%) and 10,000 to 30,000 deaths (1 to 3 percent)
Read 20 tweets

Related threads

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Odysseus
@OdysseusIthake
THREAD : it's just a flu

"Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama."

Daniele Macchini, medical doctor in Humanitas Gavazzeni hospital, Bergamo (Northern Italy)
"It's not a simple flu and you die from Coronavirus."

Pr. Roberto Burioni, professor of Microbiology and Virology at the Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milano
"It's the facility of diffusion the problem, the same numbers that we see in 6 years of traditional flu, we see it in 4 weeks with the Coronavirus."

Pr. Pier Luigi Lopalco epidemiologist, professor of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine at Pisa University
Read 13 tweets
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Moni~Q
@VirgoStarlight
1/
 Contagion (2011) film tells the story of a flu pandemic originating in China that quickly overtakes the world. First transmitted from a bat. #Corona #China #Wuhan #WuhanChina #coronaviruschina
2/ #Corona #China #Wuhan #WuhanChina #coronaviruschina
3/ #Corona #China #Wuhan #WuhanChina #coronaviruschina
Read 20 tweets
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Ryan Chase
@GunReformRyan
We desperately need #GunReform laws in the U.S. #MassacreMitch has an A+ rating by the NRA, & has taken $ MILLIONS, ensuring no gun laws pass.

R’s are handmaidens to the gun lobby, ensuring thousands die yearly, so long as they get #NRABloodMoney. courier-journal.com/story/news/pol…
Now #MassacreMitch has stated he will only allow a Senate vote on #GunReform laws IF #VeryStableGenius is guaranteed to sign it. He wants to be absolved of any responsibility.

What.

A.

Leader.
These deaths are on his hands though. He requests to be known as the Grim Reaper on passing legislation. He certainly lives up to the name.

The NRA is in Republicans’ pocketbooks as well as ears, telling them how to spread fear & lies about guns to the public.

We know better.
Read 384 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
Exactly that

Always glad to provide the entertainment! 👊

Tex. Civ. Prac. & Rem. Code § 73.054(b)

Read 1683 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
This was already addressed mid-thread. You do realize filing lawsuits costs money to the court, yes?

Not getting paid != going into the hole paying the court costs

The goat's still waiting...

There are a few options. Provide evidence he wasn't there or X wasn't there, or depose X and challenge X's credibility (history of lying, etc), or provide evidence X is lying (emails, texts, etc), or get on the stand to say "that's false" and pray

They're too dim to realize ppl find out about the GFMs *because* they were shared on Twitter

Read 1743 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
Earlier today I learned about this #StandWithVic hashtag and the total gibberish sent by his lawyers as part of a LOLsuit

Reminder to check out the defamation basics #Law140 on why this is going to end poorly for him
You seem to have missed the thread explaining the law

Not entirely surprised literacy is not your strong suit though

Witty!

Read 1651 tweets

Trending hashtags

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