Thread by @YossiGestetner

1/ THREAD of what know and/or what we are told:

- Coronavirus is VERY contagious so anyone who was in the same room of an infected person (even hours later) needs to quarantine for 14 days because they may have it.

- 14 days because symptoms pop at day 5-6 but some cases pop on

2/ day 10 so be safe there is a 14 day window.

- In Italy, many deaths happened at day 9 of getting the virus which means hospitalization starts a few days before that.

- Hospitalization Rate of Coronavirus, we are told, is 10-15 %. The Death Rate is 1-3 percent.

3/ Basically we are told that:

Day 0 - Exposure.

Day 5-14 Coronavirus hits

Day 10-19 hospitalization

Days 14-23 mass deaths is happening.

Of 1 million cases, the above math means 100,000 to 150,000 in the hospital (10% to 15%) and 10,000 to 30,000 deaths (1 to 3 percent)

4/

- The first case in the US was January 19th; which means we are now in the 56th day.

- There were no mass measures in the US against Corona such as closing down schools/big events/travel until the 7th week and even that is just marginally. Most of the US is still fully open.

5/

- Considering that Coronavirus is so contagious and so little has been done until today, day 56, it is fair to guess that the US has already 1 million cases. This would be third of a percent of the population; much less than a mild flu year so it's a low estimate.

6/

If so, why does the US not have now, day 56, 100K-150K hospitalizations and also 10K to 30K deaths? Answer: Either we are not yet at a low-balling 1 million cases, or we R there (and we don't know due to lack of testing) but the hospital/death rates is way lower than feared.

7/

"We don't know how many cases we have due to lack of testing." True, but we can estimate the case load by going off the 10-15 hospitalization rate and 1-3 percent death rate. (Hospitalizations/Deaths from Corona is known so this data won't change with mass testing).

8/

BESIDES, since we don't know the real case count due to lack of mass testing, you are admitting that the current Hospitalization/Deaths Rates are way lower than what it appears because it appears high due to lack of known cases. Basically, based of what we know/are told

9/ The US does either not have mass Coronavirus which means it is not as contagious as feared (3 times flu) but it IS very deadly (10-20 times flu), or it is VERY contagious and not that deadly as feared but it's just not known because we have not counted millions of cases.

10/

It will take less panic and more time for people to realize the above conclusion, but instead of admitting that so many of us - from laymen to gov leaders - were being driven by panic, we will tell ourselves "it could have been worse but for the lockdown measures."

11/

Because that will be the talking point, I am pointing out that the US is now in day 56 but with very little measures in place. Most schools/shops are open; plane/trains/buses are operating; only a few thousand tests were done, yet we don't have now tens of thousands of

12/

deaths which should have been the case at this point if Coronavirus was as contagious and also as deadly as feared now. The available data from the US and around the globe shows that it is either or, but everyone is behaving as if it is both!

13/ When I present the above math, the most common response is "well, if it is true then why did government X do y"? Sorry but panicked actions by officials do not change what we see from the numbers that those officials give us.

14/ "What about Italy." As of yesterday, Lombardy had 9,820 known cases and 890 deaths. That's a staggering 9.9% death rate! But they have 10 million people and locked down only a week ago. If it's so contagious, why don't they have 100K cases by now (a mere 1% of population)?

15/ "Well, Yossi, maybe Lombardy does have 100K cases by now but we don't know because low testing." Fair enough. In this case the 890 deaths are 0.89 of a percent; not almost 10 percent of cases! Besides, if it is so contagious as feared; they sure has a few 100K cases weeks ago

16/ so the death rate is likely even much lower. Moreover, if Lombardy has now 100,000 - 300,000 cases (which would be only 1 to 3 percent of their population), the cases are rising now because people are at home and their householders are getting it. I mean, we are asking

17/ everyone who breathed the same air as an infected person to isolate for 14 days and this gets transmitted as early as 5 days. Lombardy's 100K cases are transmitting it. Ok, so maybe 10% of Lombardy has it. One million. Ok. 849 deaths of 1m is a lower death rate than the flu!

18/ While on the topic of Italy, see their chart from today. Of 1,007 deaths, none are under the age of 29, and only 6 are ages 30 to 49. 87.8% of their deaths are of those ages 70 or above. Point is the focus should be on securing seniors; not shutting down everyone else.

The CDC estimates that during the last flu season, (2018-2019) the US had 490K hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths. 25,555 of those cases (74.7%) were in seniors. 8.5% of deaths were in ages those 0-49. We don't shut down life (for everyone) due to it. We protect/care for seniors!

20/20 In one tweet: We are told Coronavirus is 3 times more contagious than the flu and also 10 X more deadlier; hence the freakout. But data shows

A. It is either or; not both.

B. Likely on the deadly - not contagion - side.

(C. Possibly not even as deadly as feared. We'll C)