Have written for @thesundaytimes today about the politics of COVID (thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…), but a few quick and hopefully useful points based on conversations I had while researching it
First, this whole thing is enveloped in fog of war. Every decision, by everyone, is a best guess. There are experts/NHS staff convinced govt strategy is misguided - and govt is updating/re-evaluating on a day to day basis.
For example, as @ShippersUnbound writes today, the spread is more rapid than models predicted - so some measures planned for later are being brought forward.
Broadly, as I write, divide is between Containers and Delayers. But this isn't a divide within govt. There's been no point at which they've taken a fork in a road. Advice throughout - driven by CMO, CSA, SAGE and their teams - has been clear, and endorsed by politicians
(And no, it's not the Behavioural Insights Team who are running things.)
The overriding priority is to keep the NHS on its feet, by managing the flow of patients. That may prove impossible, but it's the best way to save lives - death rates spike when health services overwhelmed.
The herd immunity stuff, they insist, is tangential - a welcome side-effect if the strategy works, but there is no deliberate plan to let the virus rampage slash no 'acceptable' number of fatalities
Others have written elsewhere about the view of quarantine - pushing down now may mean it pops up later when we're less able to cope. (Plus significant economic damage.)
On closing schools, the calculus may change - but at the moment it's v clearly in favour of staying open. Closing would need to be till summer, risking grandparents/pulling NHS staff off frontline.
Again, all of this stuff is best guesses. And people/companies/organisations are obviously acting in advance of the govt's recommendations - eg pretty much everyone I know working from home if they can.
One other point - the pressures on NHS will be intense, and we should brace (according to some medics) for ugly scenes. But the centralised nature of the NHS is a real advantage in circs like this - easier to get a full picture nationwide, redirect resources etc
As I say in piece, I'm recovering from pneumonia, and am therefore one of the vulnerable groups - and pretty scared as a result. What reassures me is that Britain really is good at epidemiology - we have some of the world's very best experts/organisations.
In conclusion, we definitely shouldn't trust the govt mindlessly. It's v possible they've got it wrong. But they're doing, in good faith, what the experts are telling them is best to save most lives in the long run. Fingers v firmly crossed they're right.
