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Hospitalisation and mortality rates by age

*Imperial College Covid-19 research team
Impact of different types of measures on critical care beds

*Imperial College Covid-19 research team
The conclusion

- epidemic suppression is the only viable option at the current time
- conclusion reached in last few days
- suppression may not work long term and will be very hard

*Imperial College Covid-19 research team
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Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
* NHS England chief Simon Stevens now appearing before the health select committee

He says there are 98,000 general and acute beds in the NHS
Current occupancy is 90% and falling
There are 3,700 critical care beds
* Don't let COVID-19 "let rip" on the NHS?

Stevens: "Unmitigated, there are no healthcare in the world that could cope if this virus was allowed to let rip."
* Ventilators

Stevens: As of today there are 6,699 adult mechanical ventilators operational, 750 pediatric ventilators, 691 in the private sector and 35 in the MoD

We can see 3,799 coming on line in next few weeks taking to 12,000
Read 5 tweets
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Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
What will the UK government do next on Coronavirus?

Stand by for the government to increase the COVID-19 response "level" in coming days - if the World Health Organisation upgrades its threat level after latest Italian and S Korean outbreaks

What does this mean?
Coronovirus /2

The UK will likely act in unison with the G7 / EU as well as WHO. This expected in next week

Exact measures to be taken by government are confidential until a formal decision made. Matt Hancock and DH holding near daily cross-gvt meetings and insist ready.
Coronovirus /3

In 2011, the government published the "UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy".

This reveals the template being used by government to cope with a pandemic. Some precise details may have changed, but broad thrust similar

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 8 tweets
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Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
Extensive and credible @LordAshcroft report into where Labour went wrong at the last election. Similar to his 2005 “Smell the Coffee” exercise on the Tories

What’s striking is the difference in diagnosis of Labour *members* - who choose the next leader - and former Labour voters
I suspect some Labour members will see these questions by @LordAshcroft as unfair. They aren’t: they are part of having a grown up and honest conversation about the worst election defeat since WW2.

Tories in 2005 thought voters got it wrong too by electing Blair for a 3rd time
Slide after slide by @LordAshcroft suggests that Labour *members* - as opposed to current and former voters - think that if Brexit just goes away they’d be on the path to power again
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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El internista.
@MediCasos
HILO.

Revisión de artículos e información CIENTIFICA que hay hoy en día sobre el manejo, prevención diagnóstico y tratamiento de #COVIDー19

Atentos.
1. Kings Critical Care.

Fisiopatología:, Xu et al 2/17

SIRA: Caracterizado por daño alveolar difiuso (membranas hialinas).
Se observa daño viral citopatico en los neumocitos, lo que implica daño viral directo, mas que "solo" inflamación.
- Tormenta de citoquinas:
Parecido a sepsis bacteriana o linfohistiocitosis hemofagocitica.

Clínicamente esto se ve con aumento de la PCR y ferritina que aparentemente sirve de seguimiento de severidad y mortyalidad.

Kings Critical Care.
Read 72 tweets
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GRB (Giri)
@epigiri
The number of #COVID19 infections in countries that're not testing extensively might be much higher. There are 2 main strategies

Option.1: Test all suspected & quarantine ( #SKorea)
Option.2: Strict quarantine & Contact tracing. (#Singapore & #HK) 1ofn
The #UK is following neither of these options. #India has a combination of two but partial implementation. As a result, both these countries will have more infections, only without confirmation. While #UK has stated that they aim to have herd immunity. #India hasn't said so. 2ofn
Managing #CovidUK is major #natural experiment that a country, that too a developed one is trying. I would argue that it is #unethical to continue this strategy. Aim of #Publichealth is to prevent deaths and minimise morbidity. The current strategy in #UK defies this goal. 3ofn
Read 12 tweets
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Helmy Haja Mydin
@dochelmy
My fellow Malaysians 🇲🇾

Pls RT if you can.

I want this message re #COVIDー19 to go out.

Many of the people in power are too afraid of making the difficult but right decisions. They are thinking as politicians, not as leaders.

#SocialDistancingNow
COVID19 cases will increase. A lot. Although the virus itself hasn’t changed, people will start dying if there are insufficient critical care beds.

There are less than 1000 ICU beds in all of Malaysia. If the numbers spike, our healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
We will start to convert wards to ICUs, doctors and nurses will drop from exhaustion, choices will have to be made re who gets life support and who doesn’t.

That’s why social distancing is essential - it will slow growth & buy us time. In some cases, enough time to save lives
Read 5 tweets
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The Walrus
@walrusmagazine
Hi, this is @kevinpatterson. I’m a critical care doctor; I work in an ICU on Vancouver Island, and in the Arctic on the west coast of Hudson Bay. I’ve been thinking a lot about the history of pandemics lately, for all the obvious reasons—and also, about February 15. 1/11
Only six weeks ago, in the last days of January, Wuhan, China was seeing thousands of new cases a day. The hospitals were overwhelmed, and 14% of nurses became infected. It got pretty Dantean. 2/11
On January 23, China imposed draconian public health measures to try and halt the spread. At that point, there had been 517 #COVIDー19 cases in Wuhan, and 17 deaths—on both counts, fewer than America has right now. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
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Moritz Kuhn
@kuhnmo
@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0.
Of course the rates will likely converge somewhat over time as the virus spreads and there are many effects in this. Division bias may play a role, as does the time since the outbreak.
However, we thought maybe there is something to learn in this in order to help to organize our lives in a way to minimize the risks for us and we pose to others. We picked up a striking data difference that @AndreasShrugged pointed out.
Read 23 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
#COVIDー19
This makes several useful points about cohort. Are we comparing apples with apples? Are the cohort selection criteria the same from state to state and country to country.

The answer is clearly NO regarding country to country.

Something is going badly wrong in USA
In the U.K. the Dept of Health are correctly imposing a nationally coherent strategy with common surveillance software.

As is evident from the embedded thread, in the USA they cannot say with any certainty how many people have been tested in each state and county.
So who knows what meaning to attach to positive tests?

Firstly. Why would the CDC or states or counties seek to conceal the number of tests being carried out?

I can’t think of a good scientific reason.

Political ones maybe..but not good for citizens.
Read 5 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Coronovirusupdate #COVIDー19 #Rohingya #natural #OC #academia #Muslims #Akayesu #CovidUK #demography #Laos #NE #coronavirusitalla #Rahkine #military #alternative #NJ #Tatmadaw #rape #IL #HCoV19 #law #dial #COVID19seattle #cures

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