US facing 1M+ deaths
Demand for ICU beds est. to be 8 - 10x of supply
State, individual, corporate action critical but not enough
Congress must enact "no regrets" actions & policies
Starts with a radical mental shift
There was a natural experiment and South Korea won. There are 30x more people dead in Italy than SK, even though SK population is 85% the size of Italy’s.
East Asian nations like South Korea were more aggressive on testing, transparency, monitoring, and self-isolation than US & Europe.
Deaths have peaked and declined.
Even if infection rates rise, their growth will be more gradual and pose less risk of overwhelming South Korea’s health care system.
President @realDonaldTrump acknowledged the need for this and asked for the states’ help.
Now, Congress should call on automakers, jet plane makers, and other American manufacturers to convert their factories
We need ventilators, masks, gloves, beds, and other critical items.
Every patriotic manufacturing CEO in America will say yes.
What all Americans, including business and investors, need now is greater certainty about the future. This is a cheap way to secure such certainty.
State governments and the testing industry are offering conflicting numbers but it appears millions of tests should be possible by early April.
Our goal should be mass testing as soon as possible.
South Korea shows that massive use of testing is a critical element to retaining freedom while protecting public health
Aggressiveness saves lives, fatalism is deadly
America is the most innovative nation in the world. Innovative entrepreneurs are one of the main sources of our greatness. This asset must be unleashed.
- Radical transparency so such experiments are monitored is crucial.
There are real possibilities of abuse. There have been ugly periods in our past.
Congress can find the right balance
We are at the beginning of the crisis
A huge influx of very sick will go to hospitals
Many health care workers will get sick
We must train workers & build & scale-up temp hospitals now
It will be deadly if people hesitate to get testing or treatment b/c of lack of health insurance
Congress should cover all medical treatment of COVID-19 for the uninsured immediately
What we have learned from C19 crisis is that fatalism & inaction are deadly, while aggressiveness and innovation save lives. We must build on the strengths that make America great.
Around the world, political leaders were slow to respond, often for understandable reasons
That's the past
We need to re-set our mentalities, face forward, and work together and #KillTheVirus
That's if we stay on our business-as-usual trajectory
This scientific paper was the basis for the reversal of UK's failed "herd immunity" policy
Here’s future US deaths — with constant 1% death rate — and different rates of infection
% of pop infected : # deaths
10 : 334k
20 : 629k
30 : 961k
40 : 1.3M
50 : 1.6M
60 : 1.9M
70 : 2M+
“1% CFR estimate is close to what Dr. Jeremy Faust has been suggesting based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case”
“Governments should throw caution to the wind & spend massively... as big as the drop in GDP.... Speed is of the essence when the goal is to reassure people they will not be poorer. Universal transfers to all Americans...“
- “25% of cases have been hospitalized & 44% have required ventilation”
- “At some point I may look a daughter in the eye and tell her that I don’t have a ventilator for her father.”
- Deaths increased 25x in 13 days
- 2,300 health care workers — 1,900 MDs & RNs — infected
- Desperate for 20M undelivered masks
- Mass ventilator shortage
- Makeshift conditions
- 12 - 18 hour shifts
- if 20% of public is infected over next 6 months
- if 40% of public is infected over 12 mo.
- if 60% of public is infected over 18 months
Over-capacity = mass, unnecessary death
- Oregon & New York have not received viable masks
- Health care workers at severe risk of infection
- 74 newly infected discovered in Korean home
- first death of 22 infected in Illinois home
- second death in NOLA home
All in last 24 hrs
We are in v. early days of pandemic
Call your elderly parents and grandparents to express your love
- German PM Merkel calls C19 "biggest challenge since World War II
- Global death toll = 8,248
- 200,000 confirmed cases
- true # could be 2M - 4M
- Italy deaths jump 475 — largest daily # anywhere to date
- Italy death toll nears 3,000