THREAD: Here's what infectious disease modelers at @imperialcollege predict will happen depending on what we do. We can try to mitigate/slow the US epidemic (R0 >1) or suppress it (R0 <1). #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #coronavirus
Do nothing (unlikely)? Estimate ~80% of US population would be infected with 2.2M deaths & massive negative impacts on the healthcare system. 
Do nothing (unlikely)? ICU bed demand would be 30x maximum supply.
SLOWING the US epidemic (home isolation of suspected cases, home quarantine of others in same household, social distancing of the elderly & those w/chronic medical conditions) x 3 m >> reduce peak health system demand by 2/3 & deaths by 1/2. BUT still 100s thousands of deaths.
SLOWING the US epidemic: would still have 8x peak demand on ICU beds than maximum capacity.
SUPPRESSING the US epidemic would likely require case isolation + social distancing of entire population + household quarantine + school/university closure x 5 months. This would reduce demand for ICU beds from peak ~3 weeks after interventions implemented.
We may need to SUPPRESS, then lift measures briefly until surveillance indicates the need to reinstitute suppression. We'd need to do this until we had effective vaccines or ?drugs. Here's the paper so you can see methods/assumptions/etc: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
