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After ready this scary paper from Imperial College last night, I could not sleep: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… 1/
I hope some of the assumptions in the paper are incorrect. BUT HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY ! We need to be much more aggressive in containing #COVID19 than what we are doing now. Trump's recommendations are woefully inadequate. 2/
We need a federal, mandatory sheltering order today. At a minimum, the entire country should do what 6 counties in the San Francisco Bay Area did yesterday: mcusercontent.com/b7704d67c212a9…
Every day that we delay taking these actions, more American will die. It's just that simple.
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
I think of myself as a rational person. I'm a professor. I live & work in a place where everyone values data, science, evidence. So Im struggling to understand the federal government's slow response to #COVID19. Seems so irrational. Theories please? Genuinely want to understand.
One theory is incompetence at the top. Maybe that's part of it. But shouldn't Trump by now be absolutely scared to death, and therefore ready to listen to those with expertise and competence in his government? (Is that too rational?)
A second theory focuses on trade offs -- taking faster , more aggressive actions in defense of our health now (i.e. #ShelterInPlace, using Defense Production Act ) would produce even greater negative economic consequences. Data in support of this explanation, however, are thin.
Read 5 tweets
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
The federal government today should mandate that all Americans must shelter at their place of residence.
We should be doing at the national level today what Santa Clara County did yesterday. sccgov.org/sites/phd/Dise…
Tell me why Im wrong? (Read this paper for supporting data & analysis: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…)
Read 4 tweets
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
THREAD on the stubborn persistence (tragic, good, or otherwise) of #Interdependence. 1/
Trump and his team came into power in 2017 telling us we needed to put America first, we had returned to an era of "great power" rivalry, the laws of the Hobbesian jungle were all that mattered, and international law, norms & institutions were for sissies. 2/
In this new (or return to the old) dog-eat-dog world, the United States was going to "win" because we had more power -- military, economic, and soft power -- than all other countries. (If the jungle had returned, then we were the lion (or, if a jungle, then the tiger) 3/
Read 14 tweets

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Andy Slavitt @ 🏡
@ASlavitt
March 18 COVID Update 1: Today I may do two threads because so much is happening. This one contains a lot of positive things happening.

But in order to get there we need to be grounded in what he scientists & mathematicians are saying. And it’s disturbing.
A lot of the talk today is about the Imperial College paper that came out March 16 with some very dire analysis. This deserves some explanation. But know I’m a layman & so this comes from scientists I’ve talked to. 2/

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
First take a deep breath and understand that this is a “novel” disease. We have very very little data on it. So view this as a look at how we think the game is likely to end at nine innings from the point of view of the first inning. 2/
Read 21 tweets
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Jens Suedekum
@jsuedekum
Key question for anyone thinking about the economic consequences of #COVID19 :

For how long will the current (almost complete) shutdown of the economy have to last?

Just 1-2 months? 6 months? A year? Even longer?
Nobody knows for sure, but recent studies give some hope. /Thread
Obviously, the longer the shutdown will go on, the deeper the recession, and the harder the design of policies to insure workers and firms.

Also the acceptance in the general public will evaporate over time, because not all agree with it and are willing & able to bear the costs.
Take Germany as an example: schools are closed and are scheduled to re-open on April 19. This closure was controversial, because it keeps many adults away from work.

For now, most people seem to accept it. But this will change if the "exit day" is pushed into the gray future. /3
Read 15 tweets
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Stephen Kelly
@Big_Kells
Media reporting Imperial College have redone the maths. Assumptions not correct. UK plan to tackle #covidー19 is in disarray. Suppression now required for 12-18 months in the hope of a vaccine. 250k deaths the best case scenario. Human and economic impact profound. Jesus wept.
“Situation is much more serious than anticipated. Demand on ICU twice as much as thought”.
Concluded that epidemic suppression through prolonged isolation would halve the death rate
Read 6 tweets
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Guy Opperman
@GuyOpperman
V positive step forward as @10DowningStreet have decided #UK is to be the first country to go further on #TCFD = Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosure ...

Govt will consult on proposals following amendments to #PensionSchemesBill we laid last night ⏩ #Progress 1/
This amendment imposes requirements on trustees + managers of certain occupational pension schemes as regards taking into account the effects of climate change / publishing information relating to those effects - takes #TCFD to next level 2/
Massive step forward in battle against #climatechange.
Transparency and disclosure are key to both
- a #NetZero by 2050 approach
- and an understanding by investors of the #investmentchain.
Progress on #TCFD assists with #COP26 and more 3/
Read 5 tweets
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dog
@IntelDoge
UK flagged oil/chemical tanker STENA IMPERO doing something interesting at the moment. It's port is the opposite way of where it's heading, and it's heading directly for the #Iran|ian island of Qeshm.. 🤔
The track of this ship is incredibly concerning, if it continues on it's track towards Iran, which it's only 9.5 nautical miles from..
Here's an image by Relic in Crustacean Nation - this track is the rather concerning part.
Read 41 tweets
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Joy Brooks
@joybrooks
Last night I couldn’t sleep. I kept thinking what was going to happen to those 50 million saplings that are going to go to waste if we don’t take this into our own hands.
So I need to know @lornecoe
1. Did the government sign a contract to purchase the saplings?
2. Are the saplings identified with what area they can be planted in?
3. Are the taxpayers still responsible for paying for those saplings even though @fordnation cancelled the program?
4. How much did each sapling cost the government?
5. Can the taxpayers find out where the growers are that got a piece of that contract so we can pick up our free saplings if they have already been paid for?
6. If the government hasn’t already paid for the saplings, can you please let us know if we can purchase them for the same
Read 9 tweets

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