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The most important document that hasn't received wide exposure in the West is the Chinese National Health Commission's guide to how they are diagnosing & treating the novel coronavirus, now on v7.

Original: nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/2…

*Possible* translation: chinalawtranslate.com/en/coronavirus…
How do we know the original is legit?

The guide is at a Chinese government URL, and Elsevier's coronavirus information center links to it. It's also referred to elsewhere as the "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (version 7)".
elsevier.com/connect/corona…
How do we know the translation is legit?

The China Law Translate site doesn't look very professional, but the content seems to match.

However, I'd like a separate translation of this PDF (including the medical terms). If you can do this, please DM me.
nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/2…
If there are Chinese speakers at @WSJ @nytimes @washingtonpost who can translate medical terms, it could be a significant public service to post a nicely formatted "official" translation of this guide. And at @NEJM and @TheLancet.

May save the West from reinventing the wheel.
Looks like the China Law Translate site is by Yale's Jeremy Daum, which increases my confidence in the quality of the translation.

Jeremy, sorry for my comment above, was purely about graphic design :)

Here's the translation by @ChinaLawTransl8:
chinalawtranslate.com/en/coronavirus…
OK, bingo! Here's an official translation in English by the Chinese Consulate in Pusan of the v7 guide:

busan.china-consulate.org/chn/zt/4/P0202…
And here is a Medium post with a brief foreword so this is picked up by Google, Bing, and the English-speaking world.
medium.com/@balajis/the-o…
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Good scenario: the West rallies late through the decentralized response. MDs, nurses, engineers, scientists stop spread.

Bad scenario: lockdown crashes economy, but isn’t paired with enough tech to arrest virus. The crash further immunocompromises society. Worst of both worlds.
Need to game out bad scenarios to avoid them.

Suppose the West clones Asian lockdown imperfectly, and decentralized response ships good tech, but central coordination isn’t there.

Then economy crashes *and* virus spreads. And crash further reduces resources to fight the spread.
If lockdown is simultaneously extensive yet porous, if it’s not combined with testing and the 100 other things Asian countries did, and if duration is not minimized — the resultant economic damage may leave society actually less able to fight off the virus.
Read 4 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
The best metaphor for what is happening is not recession or depression, but invasion by the virus.

With better technology, we could see the virus (testing), kill it (drugs), and shield against it (vaccines).

Without it we can only run from the virus (lockdown) or get attacked.
You know the risk premium? Well, the US is currently paying the risk-averse premium.

50 years of regulations & lawsuits drove risk from the physical world to the virtual. Now we need to innovate rapidly, but don’t have the societal muscles to do that.
The new left/right axis is whether virus or lockdown is the greater threat.

But with better tech this wouldn’t be a tradeoff, as you could stop the virus with a shorter (or nonexistent) lockdown.

We don’t have it yet, but there is a technological rather than political solution.
Read 3 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
To reiterate, lockdown without scaled testing will not achieve desired ends.

1) Virus is invisible
2) Testing makes it visible
3) Use gradation of tests: thermometer, CT, PCR
4) Identify red & green zones, with high & low virus %
5) Let people in green zones out of lockdown
Also:

- We don't know if lockdown is working to bend curve without scaled testing
- We don't know when to let people out of lockdown without testing either
- Extended lockdown causes mass unemployment/bankruptcy

Need to quickly ID red & green zones.
If tests are scarce, we might use survey sampling techniques to randomly test N people in a zone and estimate the local percentage infected.

This is tricky because lower the percentage infected, the wider the error bars. Still, it's a good stopgap till testing scales.
Read 3 tweets

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Thomas Wood 🌊
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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
🦠🚨🦠 Weekend #coronavirus thread. 🦠🚨🦠
"Official" numbers & global news. "Official" numbers to be updated this afternoon.

34,957 confirmed globally
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CHI
6,101 serious
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⤵️⤵️🦠
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QuickTake by Bloomberg
@QuickTake
Health officials dressed in hazmat suits check passengers in Milan who arrived on a flight from Hong Kong for the deadly #coronavirus, which originated in #Wuhan.

The death toll in China has climbed to at least 106. More @business: trib.al/GY2JNmE #ChinaVirus #新型肺炎
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More @business: bloom.bg/38JzLpd
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The Epoch Times - China Insider
@EpochTimesChina
As a new form of viral #Pneumonia has begun spreading across #China, different gov't authorities are reporting different numbers of confirmed cases—raising citizens’ suspicions that they are not being truthful. (Thread👇) theepochtimes.com/chinese-author…
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But state broadcaster @CCTV reported that 444 cases were confirmed in Hubei Province alone during an 8 p.m. news segment on Jan. 22.
Chinese media @Caixin reported that Qichun county mayor Zhan Caihong said there were 109 confirmed cases in #Huanggang city.

But @CCTV reported only 12 diagnosed cases from Huanggang.
Read 8 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Now Japan too 👀 https://t.co/9yeEsUGHDx
It’s probably a good time to remember that the 2002 SARS outbreak killed 774 people across 37 countries and it had a 10% mortality rate. This one looks less deadly, but also looks ripe to — and actively is — going global. on.ft.com/2u6G7zV
Umm, any of y'all have room in your bunker? The Chinese government was withholding the severity of this outbreak & transmission capability, and the number of coronavirus cases has exploded😷
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