I read the "imperial" model report. I recommend taking our obligations to hunker down and socially isolate seriously. I also draw attention to the limitations of the model. 1. They seem not to take seasonality seriously, but most CoVs are quite seasonal. 2. They assume
no functional treatments, not even passive immunity from survivor plasma tx. 3. They don't allow for creativity (e.g., seroprevalence surveys and placing immune patients in super-spreader positions. 4. They are based on exceedingly preliminary data--we haven't even seen
what happens when China and Korea ease restrictions. 5. Models are always finicky and at some level circular. Which is my long way of saying that YES we should respond aggressively now, but we don't have to assume that doing so can only result in either failure
or a return to pre-modern economic conditions. I continue committed to aggressive measures now plus cautious optimism that they will work. We do desperately need serological testing AND functional PCR tests.
