A short thread on where things appear to stand in the United States and why rapid #COVID19 testing is so important ... /1
According to this dashboard by @JHUSystems, there have been 114 U.S. deaths. If we take the case-fatality rate of 0.9 from South Korea's screening efforts, then this would seem to suggest that there are 12K to 13K U.S. cases. (114 divided by 0.9) But... gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… /2
...as the dashboard shows, *confirmed* cases in the U.S. are hovering only around 6,500. This gap shows why we need rapid testing to find the *other* 6,500 cases as soon as possible. /3
#Coronavirus is highly contagious. Each of these 6,500 people who have it but aren't being counted as confirmed cases may eventually infect two to three other people (R0:2.5). This could mean another 13K to 19K additional cases. And so on. /4
This is a rough but quick estimate. I am part of a RAND team working on a comprehensive disease transmission model that will soon provide more precise estimates. /end
