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An important new forecast finds that if we slip into recession in the 2nd quarter and Trump's approval stays upside down, his reelection is likely doomed.

And there's no reason to think he'll get to Dems' left. Basic facts suggest otherwise.

New piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Right now, the Trump campaign is attacking Biden's public option plan as "socialism," and Trump is backing a lawsuit that would wipe out the ACA entirely.

It's going to be hard for Trump to magically transform himself into the second coming of FDR:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
On Morning Joe, @SenSchumer called for serious conditions on corporate bailouts, including restrictions against layoffs and stock buybacks.

At least 18 Senate Ds now support direct cash payments of up to $4500.

Things are moving in the right direction:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
I took a close look at Richard Burr's "defense" in the insider-trading scandal.

His defense *indicts Trump.*

Burr cites a Trump/admin briefing supposedly showing officials warning the public. It actually shows them *downplaying* the threat!

New piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Here's the key point.

This scandal goes far beyond just the stock sales.

It opens up a vast new line of inquiry:

What were lawmakers privately told by Trump officials about just how bad this was going to get?

And when were they told it?

More here:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
And one more really important angle here:

This scandal dramatically illustrates the need for new reforms.

Progressives have long pushed for a ban on members of congress owning stock.

This Richard Burr scandal shows why:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 3 tweets
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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
Trump's daily depravity has become so routine that he basically agreed with the claim that US news organizations are conspiring with foreign state propaganda, and it isn't news.

The sociopathy of today's display is in a league of its own. New piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
It's sometimes said that Trump is trying to "bait" Democrats and the news media into criticizing the "Chinese virus" frame.

This may be. But if it is, the assumptions underlying this idea are themselves despicable and worthy of taking apart:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Trump is attacking the media *precisely because* it is holding him accountable for his own ongoing disastrous response, at a time when the American people are relying on the media to inform them in a manner that *Trump himself* refused to do for weeks:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 3 tweets
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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
Trump's magical lies are failing.

New NPR poll finds only 37% trust what Trump says about coronavirus -- while 50% trust what the media says about it.

The megalomaniacal prioritizing of protecting Trump above all else isn't working.

New piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Trump's propagandists have stampeded from bashing the media for supposedly hyping coronavirus, all to hurt Trump, to suddenly treating it as a serious crisis that actually displays Trump's bold and heroic leadership:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Staggeringly bad numbers for Trump:

Only 35 percent of independents trust what Trump says about coronavirus, versus 62 percent who do not.

Among women, that's 31-66 (!!).

I submit that when it comes to such public perceptions, a great deal is at stake:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW I wrote about "electability" and the 2020 Democratic primary for the paper this week. We combined political science and polling data and found that a moderate Dem with strength among working-class whites has the best chance against Trump.

<THREAD>

economist.com/united-states/…
The 2020 election is likely to be close. Trump's approval rating & GDP growth suggest that he'll win about 49% of the two-party vote, per our modeling. He's clearly competitive, especially when Democrats need to win the popular vote by about ~2.5pts to win the electoral college.
So the "electability" of the candidates is a particular concern for Democrats.

So what do we know about who is more likely to win general elections?
Read 13 tweets
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snarke
@snarke
Welcome to today's #Trump #ImpeachmentTrial thread (potentially one of a few)! I've been playing around with tags a little in other tweets this morning but for now, I'm going to stick with the two I've used here. That may change later on, though. Follow/mute at will!
Today is going to be procedural stuff. The Senate will have to approve the (completely BS) rules proposed by McConnell. Dems will offer amendments, of course, but since a simple majority rules I don't have a lot of hope any of the amendments will pass. #Trump #ImpeachmentTrial
For those of you just tuning in, McConnell is proposing that this trial have:

Zero witnesses
Zero admitted evidence
Ridiculously little time set aside for opening arguments and questions.
As little sunlight as possible.

#Trump #ImpeachmentTrial
Read 114 tweets
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𝗔𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿🌊
@AnIllicitWriter
𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 | 𝗧𝗵𝗲🍑𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽
Nancy Pelosi Announces Formal Impeachment Inquiry of Trump

🔗nyti.ms/2kORLLE #Trump #ImpeachTrumpNow #Resist #ImpeachTrump
Here’s a timeline of Trump’s Ukraine scandal. It’s damning.

🔗washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/… #Trump #ImpeachTrumpNow #Resist #ImpeachTrump
Read 352 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW Polling on impeachment from The Economist and YouGov:

- 50% of registered voters support impeaching POTUS. 39% oppose. !! +11 is up from -12 in July. !!
- 36% of Indies and 11% of Reps support impeachment

- 51% of RVs support impeachment AND removal from office, 39% oppose
- 67% of registered voters say that “abuse of power” warrants removal from office
- 68% of RVs say the same about obstruction of justice
- 71% of RVs say that perjury warrants removal
- 59% of registered voters say they believe it is illegal for the president “to threaten withholding foreign aid to a country if that country refuses to take action that benefits the president”
- 69% of RVs say it would be inappropriate for a president to do this
Read 5 tweets
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snarke
@snarke
So #Trump is holding a news conference in about five minutes. I’ll be watching (and probably tweeting). Follow/mute at will!
Okay, #Trump has started speaking. He's already slurring. He's already made a joke about "a lot of......MEDIA.".

This does not bode well.
#Trump is now saying that China wants to "see me lose an election because they've never been challenged before."

It's not just China, pal.
Read 63 tweets
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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
National politics correspondent for Newsweek, Nina Burleigh, with a fun find on a TV above the bar at the Trump Hotel DC bit.ly/2E37QRR
Two errors in the 2nd graf of Breitbart's Trump Hotel DC article:
-holdings aren't out of @realDonaldTrump's hands: trust isn't blind & he can profit from it
-Trump Org told Congress it was estimating foreign receipts—not auto donating in full
bit.ly/2CpL7z2
Read 1562 tweets

Trending hashtags

#thedonald #TBT #potus #InternetBillOfRights #Trump #ImpeachmentIsComing #Facebook #PanicInDC #SundayFunday #ImpeachBarr #ButtHisVoicemails #KAG #MAGA #DeclassifyFISA #LockThemAllUp #RedWave #USA #TRUMP #Dallas #BREXIT #turnaround #ColonialRally #POTUS #JohnKennedy #Republican

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