Some key numbers from this story, drawing on interviews w/a dozen epidemiologists. The essential number is 12-18 months. That's the optimistic scenario for development of a COVID-19 vaccine. The disease probably won't be under control until. 1/n apnews.com/67ac94d1cf08a8…
In simplest terms, scientists say the epidemic will slow when people w/infections don’t pass virus to others. Based on data from China & cruise ships, scientists estimate w/out measures to limit spread, each infected person infects 2 or 3 others, leading to exponential growth. 2/
If the COVID-19 virus makes a jump to new person every two to five days, as scientists calculate, then a single infected person could lead to 4,142 total infections within a month — assuming nothing is done to break chains of transmission. 3/
Without effective social distancing measures, scientists estimate that 40-80% of global population could become infected. Based on analysis of data from China, scientists found that most new infections are transmitted by people w/mild symptoms, aka "stealth transmission""). 4/
Even if most people do recover from COVID-19 and only a fraction of total confirmed infections are severe enough to require medical care - about 14% hospitalized, 5% critical condition, per estimates - the sheer scale of the epidemic will put enormous strain on hospitals. 5/
The point of social distancing - including closing schools, offices, restaurants, etc - is to break or slow chains of COVID-19 virus transmission. That is to ensure that emergency rooms aren’t quickly overwhelmed by surges in critically ill patients. Italy crisis is warning. 6/
“The best-case scenario is that we have vaccine in 12 or 18 months and then our lives go back to normal,” said epidemiologist Mark Jit. “The worst-case scenario it takes long time for vaccine to be developed, and the world is really changed and our lives aren’t the same again” 7/
While we wait for a COVID-19 vaccine, are we all shut-ins for more than a year? Almost no one thinks that’s realistic. What scientists now expect is a regime of tightening and loosening restrictions, combined with enhanced monitoring for the virus. 8/
Once the # of new COVID-19 cases falls below a certain threshold, schools, offices & restaurants could perhaps reopen. But if the number of infections spikes again, restrictions may be reinstated. This idea was explored in new study from researchers at Imperial College London. 9/
To explain idea of intermittent closures, epidemiologist Michael Levy said: “The analogy of pumping car brakes on an icy road is what we should be thinking about ... you push on brakes to slow things down, then ease up – but if you skid, you have to pump the brakes again.” 10/10
