China is top carbon emitter - burning half world's coal, but also using more clean energy than any other nation. As world leaders meet to discuss climate, I took a deep look at conflicting trends shaping China's energy trajectory and planet's climate. 1/ apnews.com/0383cebcfa1941…
From 2000-2018, China's annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for about 30% of world’s total. Yet it’s also the leading market for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and it manufactures about two-thirds of solar cells installed worldwide. 2/
That apparent paradox is possible because of sheer scale of China’s energy demands. As a fast-growing economy, it was inevitable that China's energy use would climb steeply. The only question was whether China could derive enough power from renewables to curb emissions growth. 3/
In signing Paris climate agreement, China committed to shifting its energy mix to 20% renewables, including nuclear and hydroelectric energy, and to peaking emissions by 2030. Those are fairly conservative goals. Many experts hope China will pledge more by 2020 climate summit. 4/
But now as China’s economy slows to lowest level in quarter century - 6% GDP growth - policymakers are doubling down on support for coal & other heavy industries, the traditional backbones of China’s energy system and economy. The country is reducing subsidies for renewables. 5/
Recent media reports & satellite images suggest that China is building or planning to complete new coal power plants with total capacity of 148 gigawatts — nearly equal to the entire coal-power capacity of the European Union, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor. 6/
Meanwhile, investment in China’s renewable energy dropped almost 40 percent in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research organization. The government slashed subsidies for solar energy. 7/
China's existing coal plants only run on average about 50% capacity. While energy grid structures always require extra capacity, this % still indicates overcapacity. The new coal plant construction seems to be driven by local govt desire for economic boost from infrastructure 8/
But once new coal-power infrastructure is built, it's hard to ignore. So building a large fleet of new coal plants, even ahead of demand, will make it harder to transition away from coal, experts worry. It's politically hard to shut down new facilities which support jobs. 9/
China's carbon emissions climbed sharply for 2 decades, then stalled around 2013 and declined slightly in 2015 and 2016, according to Global Carbon Budget. This gave many experts hope China's emission would peak early. But carbon emissions then rose again for last 3 years. 10/
Bottom line is that when China's economy slows - because of internal factors, the US-China trade war, other reasons - govt pushes heavy industry and infrastructure construction to stimulate economic activity. Cement & steel production, coal plants = carbon intensive. 11/
Ah, here is the full version of the story. A few more details included than in the earlier link (which needed to be under 1000 words). 12/ apnews.com/9a0f0b14a8034b…
Thanks to talented video & photo colleagues @stmcneil and @OliviaRuochen, who helped make the story more than just words. 13/
@stmcneil @OliviaRuochen One more aspect of China climate story is that, whatever its own emissions trends, China's supply chain & manufacturing processes have helped lower costs of solar panels, wind turbines & lithium-ion batteries -thereby growing global clean-energy usage. 14/ apnews.com/0383cebcfa1941…
