I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the economic shock of our current conditions are worse than many people realize and will last longer than most people expect. [THREAD]
For context, I'm a hotel refugee for a few weeks: I left France on short notice before flights were cancelled and made it to Austin to be close to family. But I can't move in my house for 3-5 weeks because there is a family living in it. Meanwhile, I'm staying at a major hotel...
....chain. This is a prominent hotel in the heart of one of America's hippest, fastest-growing cities. The SXSW cancellation and travel bans mean this hotel is at 5% occupancy. Just 20+ rooms out of ~400+ are occupied. They laid off the entire restaurant and bar staff...
...they laid off all but 1 of the 40 maids. There is 1 maid to service the entire hotel. Incredible. But this is a lucky hotel because it's still open. Several other major hotels with national chains closed in Austin, and some of those people will move to this hotel.
Restaurants and bars are closed in Austin as they are elsewhere. Austin has more of a delivery and take-out culture than a typical American city, so many of them closed their dining rooms but are still open for business. Nevertheless, there are fewer shifts. My son who works...
...at one of those eating establishments lost all his shifts. So even those who stay open lay people off.
All of these workers will need support at the same time that governments are financially thin because of decades of tax cuts and lack of investment in preparedness.
All of these workers will need support at the same time that governments are financially thin because of decades of tax cuts and lack of investment in preparedness.
We are still in denial about what exponential growth means for infections and deaths. This will be months to years in terms of battling the pandemic. But I would not be surprised if the economic effects last years. The Great Depression was roughly 15 years. Get ready. [END]
