THREAD: Now is not the time for blame, and there will doubtless be major public inquiries once the #COVID19 pandemic is over. However, I have some nagging thoughts and questions that I just can’t get over, so help my out if you can, because I’m no expert
The first question is that the CMO and Chief Scientific Advisor stated that it was inevitable the 60-80% of the population would become infected. I believe this was one of the initial reasons for the “herd immunity” and “cocooning” the elderly approach
However, despite the rapidity of outbreak in the China, they have it under control with no new domestic cases. They have 80,000 confirmed cases in a country of 1.6 billion. That’s ~0.005% of the population. Clearly there were lots of undiagnosed cases, but it’s nowhere near 60%!
I accept China will get a 2nd & 3rd wave etc, because the population still lacks immunity. But these waves could be shut down again with the same authoritarian public health approach. In fact, with surveillance & testing, they will be better prepared to tackle future outbreaks.
This obviously means that the difficult and economically damaging approach of locking down would need to be repeated, but the point is that it flattens the curve by reducing the R (reproductive) number to below 1, halting the spread of the virus, allowing health systems to cope
This delay will give more time to develop treatments and ultimately a vaccine, which is clearly the best way to achieve herd immunity and ultimately defeat the virus. Although, the mass production of the vaccine is many months away (early 2021 at best), we must hold out for it
The rapidity of scientific advances is amazing. The full viral genome sequence was published within a few months of the first case and the first Phase I trial of a vaccine has already started. A randomised controlled trial of anti-virals has already published (negative result ☹️)
The incredible scientific advances coupled with the amazing public health achievements in China and South Korea should surely be a cause to question the nihilistic approach of accepting that 60-80% of the global population will *inevitably* become infected.
If China and South Korea can protect their populations through vigilant and state driven public health measures until a *successful* vaccine is produced, then this will be one of the most astonishing achievements in history of public health, saving millions of lives.
It would also highlight how catastrophic the initial UK approach of accepting the inevitably of 60-80% of the population becoming infected. Even a mortality rate of 0.2% amongst young people, would be devastating if 60-80% of all youngsters were infected.
This is why I cannot get my head around the UK approach to the problem. I accept that the economic consequences of shutdown are devastating too, but a Government stimulus that supports everyone can help get us through. I also understand it needs to be repeated in a 2nd/3rd wave
I’m sorry, but I just think we are about to witness & endure the consequences of a catastrophic failure of public health policy. We had advanced warning and evidence of what worked. We had advice of the WHO. The nihilism & complacency of the UK approach has shocked me to the core
Please tell me and explain to me if you think I am completely wrong on this. It might actually help me feel a lot better!
