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Where is the money going? The ongoing #COVID19 outflow episode of non-resident portfolio flows is unprecedented. YTD EMs have suffered an outflow of around $80bn. These flows have been reassigned to other asset classes and geographies, but where? 1/n
ETF high freq data and ESG data show some correlation with the recent outflow, another good reference point is the non-resident flow accounting for DM. Weekly data from Japan shows inflows ytd
2/n
Up until last week, there was a strong negative correlation between EM and Japan non-res flows (the comparison is not direct though since there are many many differences between DM and EM non-res flows) 3/n
Yet, there is some suggestion that the outflow from EM (At least in the debt side) has landed to some extent in DM debt (also supported by recent movements in DM yields) 4/5
The picture for equities though is clear, the selloff happened across the board (EM and DM), with investors switching to defensive assets (i.e. gold and others) 5/5
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