Trump is doing a terrible job handling #coronavirus - So why are his approval numbers going up? A thread about polling, politics and people....
In the last two weeks #Trump has hit the highest approval numbers of his presidency. Upwards of 60% approval for handling the pandemic specifically and between 47-49% overall job approval. Which, seems shocking given the administration's horrible messaging
There are 3 likely reasons for this. First, hard as it is to believe but most Americans aren't online and get their news locally. They only see snippets pressers, so they don't actually KNOW how bad #Trump is doing, and assume he is doing his best (a low bar for him)
Next, polling during #CoronaLockdown is going to be tricky for awhile. Reliable polls use landline, cell and online surveys to get people. But what happens when millions of people are locked at home? You get more responses from different populations.
Imagine a church pastor who's usually preaching to 200 people every Sunday. They respond one way to his message, but on #EasterSunday the church fills to 400 people. They have a slightly different response. But is that indicative of how the church feels or just who's available?
I'm not suggesting Trump voters are at home, but I am saying that pollsters are catching people that they usually wouldn't catch, and that may impact how popular, or unpopular Trump is handling #coronavirus
The 3rd reason Trump's approval is up during #coronovarius is because of a mini-rally around the flag moment. Mixed with ... And put this in context ...Things are bad, but they haven't gotten apocalyptic - YET. Once that happens, his mini-boost will likely crater and stay there.
I see many people cite that GW Bush's approval jumped to 90% after 9-11 then fell back down. 9-11 was an attack on American soil by a foreign enemy, the epitome of a rally around the flag moment. A better polling comparison is Bush's approval around Hurricane Katrina
#CoronavirusOutbreak is a natural disaster with ripple effects for months. Comparing #Trump to Bush's post Katrina numbers is a more effective comparison than 9-11. The bottom fell out for W months after Katrina when the economic slow down took full effect 
#Trump peaks at perhaps 50% approval, in the early weeks of a natural disaster, in an election year. In 2 months, when 3.3 million unemployed Americans, and #CoronaLockdown have ground the economy to a halt, his numbers will drop like a rock because they aren't high as it is
Post Katrina, Bush's leadership and competence numbers took a dive, Trump's have never been good and as suffering continues he'll face the same fate. Even the stimulus may not save him. Assuming it even happens.
Final note: These polls today don't guarantee a Dem victory in November. But while #CoronaLockdown may be our new normal, a decimated economy is unacceptable to most voters, and almost any Democrat might be able to beat him this fall.
