You will find many tweets with, 'No one is against the lockdown but..'
So let me be clear that I was against this useless and cruel 21 days lockdown from the very first day.
Nothing about the pandemic was going to change substantially in 21 days other than buying us time. 1/n
So let me be clear that I was against this useless and cruel 21 days lockdown from the very first day.
Nothing about the pandemic was going to change substantially in 21 days other than buying us time. 1/n
The futility of a 21 day lockdown that could be logically deduced has now been corroborated by this University of Cambridge paper. The paper, although not without flaws, forecasts that even a perfect lockdown would only help us delay the explosion, if at there was going to be any 
A bit on the paper for reference. It makes a lot of best case assumptions. But still is in consonance with what is logical. 3/n
That was why it was important that government be transparent about the criteria it is going to use to review the lockdown after 21 days period. Without that we are going to be as much in the dark about the scale and spread of the virus as we are today. 4/n
Now comes the most important questions.
1. Do you have a better/Is there any other solution if not lockdown?
2. Isn't the delay helpful to the government to ramp up state capacity to deal with the crisis?
We will try and answer both questions. 5/n
1. Do you have a better/Is there any other solution if not lockdown?
2. Isn't the delay helpful to the government to ramp up state capacity to deal with the crisis?
We will try and answer both questions. 5/n
1. Do you have a better/Is there any other soln if not lockdown?
The issue such line of questioning is the implicit assumption that lockdown is a solution without probing
a. Whether is it actually a soln?
b. If yes, under what conditions?
c. Are those conditions possible? 6/n
The issue such line of questioning is the implicit assumption that lockdown is a solution without probing
a. Whether is it actually a soln?
b. If yes, under what conditions?
c. Are those conditions possible? 6/n
Is lockdown a solution?
Yes, says WHO. Provided
1. We are able to enforce proper social distancing and
2. We are able to test, isolate, trace and treat each of the potential patient. 7/n.
Yes, says WHO. Provided
1. We are able to enforce proper social distancing and
2. We are able to test, isolate, trace and treat each of the potential patient. 7/n.
Now is a country as large as India in a position to enforce nationwide lockdown?
Absolutely not. It is just 6 days into lockdown, apart from migrants exodus, you yourself can see the relaxed enforcement in the neighbourhood already. But yes it definitely reduces contacts. 8/n
Absolutely not. It is just 6 days into lockdown, apart from migrants exodus, you yourself can see the relaxed enforcement in the neighbourhood already. But yes it definitely reduces contacts. 8/n
The second condn of testing is where we are failing miserably. But even that was predictable. As is evident from the testing rates, we do not have the capacity to ramp up testing to desired levels during the period. So isolation, tracing also patchy. But this was also known. 9/n
With both conditions failing, we can easily deduce that a 21 day lockdown is not going to be the soln.
But then it does delay the spread & gives the govt some time to build up the state capacity?
So isn't that sufficient enough to do the lockdown? 10/n
But then it does delay the spread & gives the govt some time to build up the state capacity?
So isn't that sufficient enough to do the lockdown? 10/n
Well, in a developed country with decent social security net, the answer would have been yes, may be.
But in our country, every day of lockdown drains people, economically, physically and psychologically. A severe erosion in public resilience. 11/n
But in our country, every day of lockdown drains people, economically, physically and psychologically. A severe erosion in public resilience. 11/n
When the govt looks, what it sees, this delay, is as an opportunity to build up its capacity.
But what it does not see is that this delay is being bought at a tremendous cost. I am not saying anything about economy, supply chain disruption etc. Just the cost to individual. 12/n
But what it does not see is that this delay is being bought at a tremendous cost. I am not saying anything about economy, supply chain disruption etc. Just the cost to individual. 12/n
Now we are left with just one question. Can the govt ramp up state capacity to match and compensate for the erosion in societal capacity in this period?
And my answer is a resounding no.
State is already exhausted on the 6th day of lockdown.13/n
And my answer is a resounding no.
State is already exhausted on the 6th day of lockdown.13/n
To revisit those questions,
So no. Lockdown is not a soln at all. Rather it adds to the problem by imposing tremendous cost to society in general & poor in particular.
And alternative to something that adds to the problem is simply to not do that thing.
So no. Lockdown is not a soln at all. Rather it adds to the problem by imposing tremendous cost to society in general & poor in particular.
And alternative to something that adds to the problem is simply to not do that thing.
