Thread by @rdanielkelemen

Just out in @jepp_journal - "The European Union's authoritarian equilibrium" - my article explaining why autocratic member governments like Orbán's can endure so comfortably within the EU. Warning to fellow Europhiles: it is a very depressing read tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 1/12

Three factors underpin the EU's autocracy trap: 1) half-baked Europarty politics protects autocrats, 2) EU funding & investment bankrolls autocrats, 3) EU migration facilitates exit of dissatisfied citizens, thereby depleting the opposition. 2/12

Europarties like @EPP protect pet autocrats like Orbán for partisan gain, but their mainstream member like @CDU pay no political price for this since voters barely know that Europarties exist & don't care. Also intergovernmentalism & sovereignty norms discourage intervention 3/12

The EU subsidizes autocrats - handing them billions of euros with inadequate scrutiny that they can then use to finance patronage networks that support their regimes. EU membership also helps backsliding regimes attract FDI. 4/12

Finally, the free movement of persons within the EU acts as a pressure release valve, facilitating exit of regime opponents & dissatisfied citizens more generally. Emigrants also send back remittances which support the domestic economy. 5/12

You can check out a longer thread I posted summarizing the article here

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1173600894753132545

or a @monkeycageblog summary here washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/… 6/12

The conclusions are sobering. Though I wish it were otherwise and do all that I can to fight it, my academic analysis suggests there is little reason to think the EU will escape the authoritarian equilibrium any time soon. Rather, the authoritarian rot is likely to spread. 7/12

Any good news? Well, my father who survived the Holocaust & later escaped the communists taught me to keep things in perspective: EU membership doesn't ensure that govs remain democracies, but it will likely keep soft authoritarian govs from becoming full-blown dictatorships 8/12

I warned you that the article was depressing! Everyone who cares about democracy and the rule of law in the EU should keep fighting to break the authoritarian equilibrium. I know I will. Nothing last forever, and neither will this. 9/12

Article is in a great special issue edited by Christine Reh, Christel Koop, & Edoardo Bressanelli, with terrific pieces by @sarahobolt @chriswratil @mblauberger @dm_martinsen @ManuMoschella @fabio_franchino & more. Thanks to all of them! tandfonline.com/toc/rjpp20/27/3 10/12

Thanks also to other colleagues who offered advice or inspiration including @m2matthijs @Erik_Jones_SAIS @ProfPech @BardPetra
@halmai_gabor @alemannoEU @AndrasBozoki1
@ZgutEdit @dziblatt @bartbonikowski @akreppel @AnnaGBusse @peterkreko @DanielHegedus82 @m_orenstein & more 11/12

& thanks to the journalists doing great reporting on these issues from which I've learned so much, including @b_novak @PatrickKingsley @liliebayer @mattsteinglass @AgnesSzucs2 @panyiszabolcs @eublogo @hallbenjamin @Mikepeeljourno @Atlatszo @VALERIEin140 @EuroSandor @eszterz END