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La dizione #Asintomatico compare più spesso in pubblicazioni scientifiche con (o senza ma con evidente riferimento a) varia ulteriore #specificazione e rivolto a soggetti #affetti (es. infezioni: #asintomatici #infetti, pazienti infetti asintomatici, casi asintomatici, ecc.) 1/14
ma #senza #manifestazioni cliniche (sintomi e segni). Tuttavia pare che il termine #asintomatico abbia anche un significato più ampio, cioè di soggetto #senza #manifestazioni cliniche il cui esatto #stato di #salute, di #affetto o meno, sia #determinabile solo con un #test. 2/14
Almeno così potrebbe sembrare dalle letture di un profano come me che ha fatto alcune ricerche. Ad es. su #PubMed sono molteplici le pubblicazioni che esplicitano che gli #asintomatici possano essere anche #non #infetti e #negativi alla diagnostica. 3/14
Sto preparando una lista delle #pubblicazioni degli ultimi #20 #anni, accessibili #gratuitamente e quasi tutte in #full #text, in cui la comprensione dell’utilizzo del termine #asintomatico pare essere alla portata anche dei non specialisti. 4/14
Es. cito da:… …To forecast likely future behavior in the earliest stages of an emerging outbreak, it is therefore vital to develop and deploy accurate #diagnostic #tests that can determine whether #asymptomatic individuals are actually #uninfected, 5/14
or instead are #infected but just do not yet show detectable symptoms…
Estimation of the chance of a major outbreak can be improved by the use of #diagnostic #tests to determine whether #asymptomatic individuals are #susceptible or #presymptomatic infected. 6/14
Since the reliability of diagnostic tests affects the extent to which forecasting is improved, it is not only important to develop diagnostic tests but also to ensure their continued refinement. 7/14
To illustrate the general principle that diagnostic tests could be used to improve prediction, we simply choose individuals to test at random from the #asymptomatic individuals in the #population. 8/14
With random selection, the diagnostic test must be deployed widely to reduce the error in estimates significantly, although of course careful choice of which individuals to test (e.g. via contact tracing) would reduce the need for such widespread deployment in practice…9/14
While our simulations consider random testing of #asymptomatic individuals, in practice testing is costly, so it is vital that predictability is further improved in a cost-effective way by careful selection of individuals to test. 10/14
This could be done by contact tracing or using statistical methods to identify individuals with the highest risk of being infected, although of course effective and cheap diagnostics are still required. 11/14
A systematic investigation into which #asymptomatic individuals ought to be tested, accounting for the specificity of the tests as well as the sensitivity, would be a valuable extension to our work… 12/14
In light of our analysis the continued development, deployment and improvement of... diagnostic tests that determine #whether #asymptomatic individuals are #infected is of obvious public health importance, not only for Ebola but also for other infectious diseases 13/14
...To calculate the estimated probability of a major outbreak, we instead imagine that the #exact #infection #statuses of individuals that are #asymptomatic (i.e. #susceptible individuals & #presymptomatic #infected individuals) are #unknown, as would be... in #practice14/14
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