Thread by @WouterNijs

Thread (1/9) Proud of our new report! So many messages distilled for you, by our team @EU_ScienceHub and from a polyphony of #EnergyScenarios. Let the deeper understanding of it mature now. Enjoy its taste !
ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publica… #EUGreenDeal

(2/9) Scenarios achieving 50-56% CO2 reduction by 2030 see total #coal use reduce by 70%, #oil by 25-50% and #naturalgas by up to 25%. The use of total #biomass ranges from limited growth to an increase of up to 60%. All compared to 2017.

(3/9) The growth of #wind power generation varies between a factor of 1.5 and 3.5 and the growth of #solar power between 1.5 and 4.5. Between 2017 and 2030.
#Hydrogen and #CCUS emerges in some but not all scenarios.

(4/9) Based on JRC interpretation of scenario results, 30% to 50% of the total vehicle stock are #ElectricVehicles (#ZEV or #PlugInHybrid) already in 2030.
10-35% of the oil and gas #boilers in #buildings are replaced mainly by #heatpumps and #districtheating.

(5/9) Next tweets focus on 2050. Scenarios achieving more than 90% CO2 reduction by 2050 have a nearly complete phase-out of coal and a reduction of oil and natural gas use by at least 75%, compared to today.

(6/9) #Renewables provide 75% to 100% of the electricity. #Bioenergy use increases, from 9% of total energy today up to 20%, especially in the industry and transport sectors. #Biofuels use increases, with the largest share as #maritime and #aviation fuels.

(7/9) #ZEV are between 65% and 90% of the total vehicle fleet. There is a major uptake of electricity in transport, with the EU passenger #BEV fleet in most scenarios numbering between 100 and 220 million.

(8/9) #hydrogen is used in industry (5-20% of energy consumption, in addition to about 50% electricity), for fuel cell vehicles, and for #efuels (mainly for aviation).

(9/9) Wind and solar grow undisputedly by a factor 3 to 13, linked to the level of direct electrification and #hydrogen/#efuel production. In turn, hydrogen and e-fuel demand depends on the use of #energyefficiency, #CCS outside the power sector and #carbonremoval technologies.

Indeed. #Hydrogen and #CCUS emerges in some scenarios by 2030 but become much more relevant after 2030.

https://twitter.com/dani_devo/status/1267720171264905216

Early deployment (2030) of advanced fuels or hydrogen in transport is expected in two scenarios (fig 23, p.41). Early deployment of hydrogen for buildings is expected in one scenario (fig 23, p.41).

The hydrogen is produced mainly from renewable electricity. One scenario shows a faster deployment of hydrogen in countries with (1) favourable wind and solar but also with (2) higher wind and solar capacities so being the first to offer larger amounts of surplus electricity.

By 2050, hydrogen is part of all scenarios but to a different degree (see fig 17, p.34). The longer-term deployment of hydrogen and e-fuel depends on (1) the reduction of final energy demand (#energyefficiency, system efficiency and lifestyle changes)

(2) the use of #CCS (as alternative in industry), (3) the use of #carbonremoval technologies (negative emissions soften the need for hydrogen or e-fuels) and (4) alternative heating options for buildings (green electricity)

Also by 2050, all except 2 scenarios use underground storage of CO2, most with levels above 200MtCO2 per year (fig 3, p.19).