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Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

14 Mar

I see some are arguing that the economic hit from #coronavirus means we should now extend the #brexit transition period (or even #rejoinEU 🙄). They typically make up to four points – but none of them seem at all convincing… (1/6)

First, that it's now much harder for UK and EU negotiators to travel and meet in person. But so what? This is the age of video conferencing and the internet, and we can surely work around this... (2/6)

Second, that government energy spent on #Brexit negotiations would be better spent on dealing with #coronavirus. I have a little more sympathy with this point, but don’t we still have enough ministers, civil servants etc to do more than one thing at a time? (3/6)

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Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

11 Dec 19

If Jeremy #Corbyn becomes PM on Friday 13th, here's my rundown of 13 of #Labour’s worst policies which will hurt many, not just the few.

PS. I could have chosen a completely different 13, and these are in no particular order… (thread)

#GeneralElection19

1. Expropriating up to 10% of the value of corporate equity. Employee share ownership is usually a good thing, but dictating the terms would deter job creation and investment, and encourage firms to relocate overseas. More explanation here... capx.co/the-10-share-p…

2. Rent controls. Almost all economists agree that these are a bad idea and, like many of Labour’s policies, would actually end up hurting the very people they are supposed to help. And before replying ‘well, it works in Germany', read this… iea.org.uk/blog/qtwtain-h…

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Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

2 Dec 19

The main users of railways are commuters, who are relatively well-off and most likely live or work in London and the South East. So cutting #railfares by 1/3 would increase both income #inequality and regional inequality.

(snips from factsheets here: gov.uk/government/sta…)

To be fair, distributional impact also depends on how lower #rail fares are funded. Higher taxes on car ownership and/or use might even the impact out a little, and could be better for the environment, but plenty of poorer people rely on cars too.

Finally, remember any environmental benefits rely on more people travelling on trains which are already overcrowded. Much better to use the money to improve infrastructure than cut #railfares, especially as users themselves will benefit from this too.

Read 4 tweets

Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

29 Oct 19

Calls for #Votesat16 in all UK elections are widely seen as trendy and progressive. But their arguments are seriously flawed. Extending the franchise without proper debate and preparation would actually be deeply undemocratic... (1/11)

Most 16-year olds are still children living at home and going to school. There is enough pressure on them already. Just imagine the online barrage of political advertising they would face. Their votes are also more likely to be susceptible to influence by their parents. (2/11)

Advocates of lowering the voting age often say that 16 is the age at which you can marry or join the army. But at this age you would still require the consent of your parents or guardians (at least in England), and would not be eligible to serve in combat roles. (3/11)

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Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

14 Aug 19

Confirmed: German #GDP also fell in Q2, by 0.1% q/q. Indeed, German GDP is now only 0.4% higher than a year ago, compared to growth of 1.2% in the UK. The equivalent figure of 1.1% for the euro zone as a whole is now likely to be revised down too... (1/4)

The original timing of #Brexit played a part in the fall in German GDP in Q2 too, as activity (eg exports to UK) was brought forward to Q1. But Germany is also more exposed to global trade wars and the #auto crisis, and worried about its currency becoming too *strong*... (2/4)

What’s more, in contrast to the stabilisation in (most) business surveys in the UK, conditions in Germany are continuing to worsen. See, in particular, the July #IFO and #PMIs, and the latest #ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for August (the lowest since December 2011). (3/4)

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Julian Jessop

@julianHjessop

27 Jun 19

Beware the latest dire warnings about the impact of #Brexit on the #tech sector. Main fear seems to be the impact on skilled #migration from the EU, but this would be entirely in the UK government’s hands to manage. Tech is also one of the most global of industries... (1/4)

The UK’s advantages as a location for #tech investment are also largely #Brexit-proof or might actually be strengthened by leaving (e.g. chance to escape some of the crazier regulations). Loss of EU official funding is a red herring too, since the UK is a net contributor... (2/4)

There is some evidence that #Brexit uncertainty is holding back private #investment in the #tech sector – as it is in the economy as a whole. But the UK still tops the league tables and any pause is likely to be temporary. See this from KPMG... (3/4)
kpmgenterprise.co.uk/perspectives/v…

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