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Alastair Thompson

24 Apr, 9 tweets, 16 min read

The Nile Basin & Arabian Peninsula near sunset 24/4. A line of storms extends from Sana'aa Yemen to the Jordan Border, a distance of 1777 kms.
Clouds cover large portions of Sudan and run along the north red-sea coast from Port Sudan to the Horn.

Region rain forecasts follow.

First an image of accumulated rainfall across the wider North African region showing all the West Africa Monsoon, the engine for life this region earth's cradle for biodiversity, including for humanity.

In the South East Cyclone Jobo is making landfall right now in Tanzania. /2

The are of rain bearing clouds accompanying Jobo will have a significant impact over the coming 10 days.

The latest 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA forecast models are below. They are in agreement. /3

@Arab_Storms

Today's forecasts for Middle East #ArabianStorms will be accompanied by live imagery from the ground today, curated by @Arab_Storms.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1385967155754242054?s=20

@Arab_Storms

10 day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and GEFS weather models.

@Arab_Storms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Levant #Jordan #Sudan #UAE #Iraq #Iran #Syria #Kuwait #GERD #Africa #NileBasin #HornOfAfrica #DesertRain

الله أعلم

@Arab_Storms

3 day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and GEFS weather models.

@Arab_Storms

#KSA #Yemen #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain #Makkah

الله أعلم

@Arab_Storms

It is clear from the three day forecasts in the previous tweet that the level of confidence/risk of a significant dangerous weather event, and the level of uncertainty around it is large.

Out second live report Taif #KSA, from @Arab_Storms:

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1385959021522432004?s=20

And finally, ultra long-range accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, GEFS (16 day) and KMA (12) weather models.

#ArabianStorms #Ramadan

#Levant #Jordan #Syria #KSA #Yemen #Oman #UAE #Qatar #Kuwait #Sudan #Eqypt #Iraq #Iran #GERD #DesertRain

الله أعلم

@Arab_Storms

& A P.S. Request:

Here's another eye-witness report of rain activity from @Arab_Storms.

It would be great to be able to also illustrate these Nile forecasts with recent images, photos or video.

So Ethiopia/Sudan, please DM or @me your storms.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1385963168539762689?s=20

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

25 Apr

@NASA

Below you see a @NASA WorldView image of the Nile Basin taken yesterday from Southern Egypt to Lake Victoria.

25th April computer model forecasts for rain across the ME and Africa follow.

#GERD #Ethiopia #KS

[Thanks to @Arab_Storms for live images of today's #ArabianStorms.]

25th April 10 Day GFS model accumulated rain forecast across the ME and Africa.

An animation from this afternoon of the rainy part of the Nile Basin. The Clouds over Sudan, South Sudan and Western Ethiopia all contribute to the flow in the Nile River.

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

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Today I stumbled upon this interview with @ValeriePlame, of @CIA 9/11 Niger Yellow Cake fame. It was recorded at the 2018 Scottish Beyond Borders event and it is stunning. I have started it at a particularly stunning bit....

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@ValeriePlame

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

23 Apr

The US has appointed a special envoy to the Horn of Africa specifically tasked with addressing:
- The war and humanitarian crisis in Tigray, Ethiopia
- Tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan in Al Fashoga
- The dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the filling of the #GERD

@Reuters

Jeffrey Feltman (born 1959) is an American diplomat and former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_D…

@Reuters on the appointment:
reuters.com/article/us-usa…

@jakejsullivan

White House National Security Advisor @jakejsullivan on the Jeffrey Feltman appointment as Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

23 Apr

The East Africa Monsoon gets a big boost with the arrival of Cyclone Jobo (a 15km high tower of water) in Tanzania on Saturday. The water heads north supercharging rains in the Horn of Africa & Sudan.

Today's 10-Day rain forecasts for #Ethiopia & #MiddleEast follow below:

For all those following the #GERD in #Ethiopia #Sudan & #Egypt active and increasing rains across the Nile Basin may provide more than ample water for the planned filling of the dam this rainy season.

Over 10 days rain is forecast for all the Nile Basin south of Egypt.