Yesterday U.S. Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman - who has come out of retirement for the task after retiring from UN in 2018 - was in Egypt discussing #GERD & related #Sudan and #Ethiopia conflict issues with close U.S. Ally Egypt.
This report from @AlMonitor >> al-monitor.com/originals/2021… << provides a very interesting insight into the scale of the challenges facing the US Envoy to the Horn of Africa during his visit during the lead up to June 5 elections in Ethiopia.
Note: That the March 5th dates referred to in the report are an error these events also took place yesterday May 5th, and indicate a sharp increase in tension.
Feltman also met separately with Egypt's President Al-Sisi. It is not clear from this tweet that this meeting was today, but it seems likely.
Here is the @StateDept statement on Jeffrey Feltman's trip which started on Tuesday May 4 and runs till next Thursday May 13th. state.gov/travel-of-spec…
“The Special Envoy’s travel underscores the Admin’s commitment to lead a sustained diplomatic effort to address interlinked political, security & humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa & he will coordinate US policy across the region to advance that goal.” US @StateDept Spox
The above ^^ quote comes from this backgrounder report from The East African in Kenya. theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/world…
This morning Ethiopia PM @AbiyAhmedAli announced the replacement of the interim head of Tigray Govt.

Dr. Abraham Belay, who has been serving as minister of innovation & technology is now "CE of the Tigray Provisional Administration."
There were two questions in the State Dept. Briefing on May 4th concerning Ethiopia. They are extracted below. state.gov/briefings/depa…

The @StateDept's Ethiopia Country Page contains earlier mentions of Feltman's mission and latest transcripts. state.gov/countries-area… ImageImage
Significantly more extensive remarks about Envoy Feltman's mission were made in the April 26th briefing] state.gov/briefings/depa…].

This occurred several days after the massacres in the area of Ethiopia where #GERD is located & for which Egypt & Sudan have now been implicated. Image

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More from @althecat

8 May
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela. Image
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread. Image
Read 16 tweets
8 May
A massive storm over the Ethiopian Highlands directly over the #GERD today. @NASA Modis landsat image taken this morning. Image
And this is the area off the Horn of Africa where the simulation models think a Cyclone may begin to form towards the end of the coming week. Image
Two low centers are currently modeled by the GFS, ECMWF and KMA models to form Wednesday/Thursday the southernmost of which is forecast to track in a southerly direction.
Read 5 tweets
7 May
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window. ImageImageImageImage
Read 16 tweets
7 May
I like @Keir_Starmer, he’s a nice guy, and clearly he thinks that being a sober and sensible person who takes responsibility for things is what the voters want. And maybe one day it will be. It’s fine for me now. But....
... the thing is it’s anachronistic in this day and age of political showpony-ship. And I expect his problem is that many voters just don’t get him. They don’t recognise his kind of politics and think it a bit weird.
They are used to politicians who are passionate (Corbyn) or articulate (Blair) or Gruff (Brown) or charming (@jacindaardern NZ) or combative (@ScottMorrisonMP Aus) or imperious (Merkle and Macron).
Read 4 tweets
7 May
The British Isles is about to receive a diluvial rain event.

@ECMWF latest 48 hour model from midnight Thursday to Midnight Saturday.

#Ireland and #UK #Deluge
48 hour rain totals from: ICONEU, ECMWF, GFS & HIRLAM Models. ImageImageImageImage
This is the cause - an Atlantic plume of precipitable water crossing the British Isles.

From latest @ECMWF 9km model.
Read 6 tweets
6 May
#Ethiopia the #RedSea coast of #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Somalia and #Oman all experienced spectacular thunderstorm activity today.

Today's #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorm rainfall forecasts follow:
First up today, long range @NOAA forecast models are now forecasting a cyclone may form in the Arabian Sea, providing a timely warning of the risk to those in the region. See thread here >> Image
The most important thing about these forecasts is to understand they are an early warning system about the possibility of a cyclone forming, not a forecast that one will do so.

If a threat materialises you will see official advice and warnings here >>
metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Read 14 tweets

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