Yesterday U.S. Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman - who has come out of retirement for the task after retiring from UN in 2018 - was in Egypt discussing #GERD & related #Sudan and #Ethiopia conflict issues with close U.S. Ally Egypt.
This report from @AlMonitor >> al-monitor.com/originals/2021… << provides a very interesting insight into the scale of the challenges facing the US Envoy to the Horn of Africa during his visit during the lead up to June 5 elections in Ethiopia.
Note: That the March 5th dates referred to in the report are an error these events also took place yesterday May 5th, and indicate a sharp increase in tension.
Feltman also met separately with Egypt's President Al-Sisi. It is not clear from this tweet that this meeting was today, but it seems likely.
Here is the @StateDept statement on Jeffrey Feltman's trip which started on Tuesday May 4 and runs till next Thursday May 13th. state.gov/travel-of-spec…
“The Special Envoy’s travel underscores the Admin’s commitment to lead a sustained diplomatic effort to address interlinked political, security & humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa & he will coordinate US policy across the region to advance that goal.” US @StateDept Spox
Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile#GERD#Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
A massive storm over the Ethiopian Highlands directly over the #GERD today. @NASA Modis landsat image taken this morning.
And this is the area off the Horn of Africa where the simulation models think a Cyclone may begin to form towards the end of the coming week.
Two low centers are currently modeled by the GFS, ECMWF and KMA models to form Wednesday/Thursday the southernmost of which is forecast to track in a southerly direction.
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.
Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
I like @Keir_Starmer, he’s a nice guy, and clearly he thinks that being a sober and sensible person who takes responsibility for things is what the voters want. And maybe one day it will be. It’s fine for me now. But....
... the thing is it’s anachronistic in this day and age of political showpony-ship. And I expect his problem is that many voters just don’t get him. They don’t recognise his kind of politics and think it a bit weird.
They are used to politicians who are passionate (Corbyn) or articulate (Blair) or Gruff (Brown) or charming (@jacindaardern NZ) or combative (@ScottMorrisonMP Aus) or imperious (Merkle and Macron).
First up today, long range @NOAA forecast models are now forecasting a cyclone may form in the Arabian Sea, providing a timely warning of the risk to those in the region. See thread here >>
The most important thing about these forecasts is to understand they are an early warning system about the possibility of a cyclone forming, not a forecast that one will do so.