Tonight Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae is already a Cat 3 Hurricane equivalent Cyclone, 24 hours ahead of schedule and tearing up the West Indian coastline on its way north.

Today's #ME and #HOA rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Three more views from the image.

The first shows the positioning of this morning's @NASA Modis picture of Tauktae in relation to the coast. Nearly half the central convection area is over India.

The 2nd shows a wider perspective. & the 3rd provides borders for orientation. ImageImageImage
Further west here are four images from today of the #HornOfAfrica, the #NileDelta, the #Levant and #UAE + #Oman. ImageImageImageImage
By comparison to what's happening on the other side of the #ArabianSea today's weather in the #ME and #HOA was benign with modest and orderly cloud formation and from the look of things very little wind.
Here are today's forecasts, beginning with #Ethiopia #HOA 10-day rainfall ECMWF, GFS and KMA 16th May model runs. They are very much in agreement. Rainfall is expected to resume in #Somalia and #Somaliland ImageImageImage
+ 3-day forecasts till Thursday at midnight. On the basis of what we are seeing today. The KMA model which has rain resuming in #Somaliland resuming soon looks the most plausible. ImageImageImage
WRT to the sufficiency of rains to enable filling of the Grand Renaissance Ethiopia Dam, #GERD, we also have an encouraging report Data Guru of the Nile, Dr. @TirusewAsefa pointing to 200%-600% over normal rainfalls in the #HOA catchments.
If only a bit of extra rainfall could also help resolve the conflict in Israel-Palestine? In this satellite animation we can see an injection of water vapour into the Levant coming in rapidly as the sun sets over Greece.
In the latest ECMWF run the impact of this can be seen in a forecast increase in water vapour over nearly all of Israel at midday tomorrow. ImageImage
May 16th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms
#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم ImageImageImageImage
Today's 3-day accumulated rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast to midnight Thursday. ImageImageImageImage
The final forecasts for today, ultra-long range GFS (16-days) and KMA (12-days). Here are the last two GFS and KMA model runs. ImageImageImageImage
Today's final tweets return to #Tauktae, looking at what happens next in the apparently cyclone curious North Indian Ocean.

While today's GFS model runs have not shown cyclone formation in the #ArabianSea in the next 16 days, yesterday's did. Here's the latest 16:12 run.
The other model with a great track record for early warnings on cyclone formation is the European @ECMWF. While it does not see an #ArabianSea cyclone now in the next 10 days. It continues to foresee formation of a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal.
The reason for the disagreement is very obvious when you look at the corresponding précipitable water forecasts. The GFS is now forecasting a dry air mass arriving via Iran resulting in a massive reduction in North Indian Ocean water vapour.
The ECMWF largely agrees with this general phenomena but continues to see a Bay of Bengal event anyway. Here we can compare 240 hour predictive scenarios from the two models. ImageImage
Here are comparison 10 day accumulated rainfall forecasts from all four models. ImageImageImageImage
And finally. While it appears the #ArabianSea may be returning to something resembling normal following #Tauktae, further north the rain event modeled for central Asia remains on track. Unfortunately there are not a lot of people there to send us reports though. Image

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More from @althecat

18 May
Cyclone Tauktae is now onshore over the Indian State of Gujarat India. The storm has weakened since these photos were taken by @NASA Modis this morning, but is still packing 150kmh winds & has done a lot of damage.

Rainfall forecasts for #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow. ImageImageImage
Today's satellite presentation of the area has a new feature which has been strengthening over the past few days. A stream of water vapour out of Central Africa & Sudan transiting Chad and Sudan and then the Red Sea near Jeddah.
There is also an increasing amount of activity in the Western Sahara which supports the CMC and KMA model predictions of significant rainfall in these areas in recent forecasts.
Read 17 tweets
17 May
Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

Image: A @NASA Modis image of Egypt, the red sea and the Horn of Africa sources of the Nile taken this morning. Image
First up we have today's 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA weather models. ImageImageImageImage
Here are today's #HOA forecasts beginning with #Ethiopia 10-day rainfall from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA 17th May model runs. #Sudan, #SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
17 May
The thread concludes (after I had a close look) that actually yesterday the dam broke on the #GazaUnderAttack story on US Cable TV yesterday, most shows covered it, many mentioning the bombing of the @APNews / @AlJazeera building....

Thread below with reasoning.
Also I omitted to mention @MSNBC's @chucktodd (@MeetThePress*) who actually led his segment with a piece on #GazaUnderAttack and CNN's @camanpour who has, as is her way, been on the case all the way through. So as far as #USSundayPolutics is concerned there was a full court.
Some of the components deserve additional commentary. The ever affable @johndickerson's interview with Netanyahu was I think almost accidentally brilliant, as it provided Bibi with an opportunity to hang himself in his own delusion, it was very Trump.
Read 6 tweets
17 May
The time has come for @CNN @MSNBC and @FoxNews to stop hiding and start telling the story of what is happening in Israel-Palestine in a manner that is consistent with professional journalistic norms.
Maybe they don’t want to, or can’t tell this story through the rich lens of the humanity it is so redolent with.

That’s OK.

It would be suffice to tell it straight up and down in the manner of @bbcworldservice

bbc.co.uk/programmes/w17…

But radio silence is not acceptable.
Read 11 tweets
17 May
This is like one of those videos you see when buildings collapse in earthquakes and a child is miraculously found alive in the rubble. #GazaUnderAttak
This video shows a child being dug out of the rubble, but it looks as if she and her family may not have been so lucky.
Here’s another one of the children of Gaza who has survived the destruction of his home. But barely.
Read 4 tweets
15 May
Severe Cyclone Tauktae is happening..... moving north up the West India Coastline and strengthening rapidly. It is expected to become a very severe storm (Cat 3) in 48 hours.

Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow,
Meanwhile back on solid ground, East Africa is looking resplendently verdant this morning. Here in a photo taken by the @NASA Modis satellite. ImageImage
Eyes in the sky....

There's an unusually clear picture today of the Levant, Israel, Gaza and Jerusalem as the world is watching as the horrific bombardment of Gaza continue. Including today, the bombing of the @AJEnglish and @AP offices.

War crimes are multiplying by the hour. ImageImageImageImage
Read 16 tweets

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