1/🧵 How Contagious is #Delta? @NPRHealth
Let’s compare Ro (R nought) i.e. in a gathering of all vulnerable people, how many get infected? Now some math!👇
Ebola/Flu = 2
Original #COVID19 = 3
HIV/SARS = 4
#DeltaVariant COVID = 6 to 7
Chicken Pox = 10
n.pr/2VM5apO
Let’s compare Ro (R nought) i.e. in a gathering of all vulnerable people, how many get infected? Now some math!👇
Ebola/Flu = 2
Original #COVID19 = 3
HIV/SARS = 4
#DeltaVariant COVID = 6 to 7
Chicken Pox = 10
n.pr/2VM5apO
2/ The difference between R0 of 3 and 6 is massive. With original COVID, 1 person infects 3 who infects 3 more. After 2 rounds, cases would rise by nine (3 x 3 = 9). After 3 rounds, cases rise by 27 (3 x 3 x 3 = 27)…
3/ But with delta, 1 person infects 6, who each infect 6 more people. So after 2 rounds, there are 36 (6 x 6 = 36) and after 3 it surges to 216 (6 x 6 x 6 = 216).
Ro of 7 gives you 343!
Ro of 7 gives you 343!
https://twitter.com/WesElyMD/status/1424950696114274304?s=20
4/With an R0 of 6, delta will be extremely difficult to slow down unless we reach high levels of #vaccination.
"Anyone who chooses not to get vaccinated will in all likelihood get infected by #delta over coming months."
"Anyone who chooses not to get vaccinated will in all likelihood get infected by #delta over coming months."
https://twitter.com/WesElyMD/status/1424950702665781256?s=20
5/fin
Although cases of delta are inevitable, hospitalizations aren't. For example, the city of San Francisco has had 3,041 people hospitalized with COVID-19 since March 18, 2020. Only 16 of them were fully vaccinated.
I want you safe. So be on guard! #Mask indoors & #Vax.
Although cases of delta are inevitable, hospitalizations aren't. For example, the city of San Francisco has had 3,041 people hospitalized with COVID-19 since March 18, 2020. Only 16 of them were fully vaccinated.
I want you safe. So be on guard! #Mask indoors & #Vax.
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