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12 Oct, 6 tweets, 9 min read
#Turkey-#Iraq coordinated #ISIS raid in #Syria.

I suspected this would have been the case -- #Turkey's (MIT) been tracking #ISIS senior movements between NW-NE #Syria in recent months.

Some #HTS (SSG) raids on #ISIS in #Idlib have (I'm told) been conducted on MIT intelligence.
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.

Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.

That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).

Fascinating new details.

reuters.com/world/middle-e… Image
@Reuters #HTS & its GSS have sustained a significant counter-#ISIS campaign in NW #Syria since mid-2017 -- launching 100s of raids on #ISIS "sleeper cells," kidnap-for-ransom units, financiers/facilitators & occasionally, leadership figures.

MIT intel has played a role, at times.
@Reuters For more info on HTS's campaign against #ISIS, its relationship with #Turkey (& MIT) & much, much more, read my recent @CTCWP Sentinel paper -- full of new revelations:

ctc.usma.edu/twenty-years-a… Image
@Reuters @CTCWP Capturing #ISIS senior leader Sami Jasim in #Syria alive represents "a potential intelligence gold mine" -- "over the years, only very rarely has someone of this seniority been captured alive."

My comments in @nytimes, today:

nytimes.com/2021/10/12/wor… Image

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
1 Oct
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.

There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
Read 8 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
16 Sep
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."

@BrookingsInst President Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."

Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."

Gen. Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
28 Aug
BREAKING -- a U.S. drone strike has targeted #ISIS-K operatives in eastern #Afghanistan.

via @idreesali114
@idreesali114 The U.S. strike today targeted #ISIS-K in #Afghanistan's #Nangarhar province

Earlier, unnamed IC officials had said explosive devices & other materials had been sent by #ISIS from #Nangarhar to #Kabul in recent days.
@idreesali114 Earlier today, the #Taliban was reported to have engaged in clashes with #ISIS-K cells in #Nangarhar's Dara-i-Noor district.

The #Taliban-#ISIS conflict has been centered in #Nangarhar & neighboring #Kunar provinces.
Read 8 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
24 Aug
#Biden's decision to stick to the Aug 31 deadline is bold -- it raises 2 key risks:

1) We'll be leaving people behind, certainly 1,000s of #Afghans & quite likely, a few Americans in hard-to-reach spots.

2) Other G7/NATO states have been rebuffed again by #Biden -- more anger.
"#Biden's decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal."

Overall approval rating now 41%.

New polling on #Afghanistan's impact:

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… Image
BREAKING -- The US military has begun re-withdrawing from #Afghanistan, per US officials.

Very worrying sign for the 10,000s of those left behind - mostly #Americans, but some U.S. & European nationals too.
Read 65 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
24 Aug
Note to all -- it *is* possible for both these things to be true:

1) The #Afghanistan withdrawal has been a debacle, due to a lack of planning; hurried schedule; & ignoring worst-case scenarios.

2) The USG & NATO evacuation effort in recent days has been extraordinary & heroic.
Similarly, while it's entirely legitimate to argue that staying in #Afghanistan for 20yrs was illustrative of mission creep and strategic errors, that doesn't in any way mean that a withdrawal was guaranteed to result in chaos, humanitarian crisis & a terrorist state.
If a public figure is telling you that policy 'failure' in #Afghanistan made chaos inevitable -- he/she is lying to you.

If a public figure tells you that the heroic [crisis] evacuation effort is evidence that everything's fine -- he/she is also lying to you.

Think & question.
Read 6 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
24 Aug
There's lots of first-hand accounts of this from recent days -- intensifying over time. For now, the window's closing/closed for #Afghans, as the U.S. & others prioritize their citizens' evacuation.

This was all inevitable given the tight timeline, and it'll worsen too.
More than any other aspect of the #Afghanistan withdrawal, this is what should have been 100% avoidable.

And as @RepAdamSchiff has just stated, the IC *did* warn of a swift #Taliban victory -- this was *not* an intelligence failure, it was a political/decision-making one.
@RepAdamSchiff The #Taliban aren't stupid; they know the U.S. (& #NATO allies) are under pressure -- #Taliban fighters have significantly increased their intimidation of Afghans outside #HKIA - countless reports of beating, whipping & even gunfire.

And they're blocking known meeting points.
Read 12 tweets

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