#COP26 & #GlobalSteel: Steel sector must invest in 2020s into climate-neutral technologies to meet emission reductions target + to get on a 1.5°C pathway. We examined the opportunities + challenges for a green asset transition of the steel sector in various countries. Thread👇1/6
Finding 1: Before 2030, 71% of existing coal-based blast furnaces (1090 Mt) need reinvestment. Together with new investment in emerging markets (170 Mt), it must flow to low-carbon technologies to save jobs and align the sector with 1.5°C pathway. 2/6
Finding 2: #GlobalSteelTransformation must start in 2020s: key low-carbon technologies can be deployed now. Green steelmaking capacity before 2030 ➡️ many projects in pipeline. Operators should switch to secondary steel production + DRI, coal-based may be a dead-end road. 3/6
Finding 3: Moving from coal to clean is🔑to stay on 1.5°C pathway. How? Short extension of lifespan of old #blastfurnaces ▶️by 2025 invest in #DRI directly. Additional low-carbon #GlobalSteel capacity by 2030: 390 Mt of DRI + 278 Mt secondary steel. CO2-reduction: 1.3 Gt p.a. 4/6
Finding 4: A #GlobalSteelTransformation can enhance international cooperation + create a level playing field. A successful transition will make 1.3 million existing jobs future-proof & green + creates 240,000 new jobs in emerging markets. 5/6
The publication “Global Steel at a Crossroads: Why the global steel sector needs to invest in climate-neutral technologies in the 2020s” was produced in cooperation with @Wupperinst and @lunduniversity. Download the paper here 👉 bit.ly/3Exe4c2#AgoraIndustry 6/6
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Do you already know our #GlobalSteel Transformation Tracker? Our new online tool provides insights on the status quo of #steelproduction worldwide, to the necessary reinvestments, announcements of #greensteel production before 2030 and more. Ready for some insights? 👇 #COP26 1/7
Where are the steel centres located? Are blast furnaces, integrated direct reduced iron or electric arc furnace used for production? Our interactive map with data from @GlobalEnergyMon/@caitlinswalec lets you explore steelmaking around the world. 2/7
Our #GlobalSteel Transformation Tracker visualises the required reinvestments of a country’s #blastfurnace fleet from 2021-2050. That most of the blast furnaces will reach the end of its working life before 2030 is an opportunity to replace them with low-carbon technologies. 3/7
Where do we stand today? WB-6 power markets consist almost exclusively of two generation technologies: #lignite and #hydro. The share of either source varies considerably between the countries. 2/12
Finding 1: 90 % of #lignite power plants in the #westernbalkans was put into operation 30 or more years ago. 40 % of the capacities are older than 40 years. The power plant park is in urgent need of #modernisation. 3/12
EU #CoalPhaseOut action plan: 16 EU Members States will be #coal free by 2025, remaining states must follow by 2030 for a cost-efficient #netzero pathway. 6 countries not yet committed to 2030. We identified a policy mix without new fuel lock-ins & minimum costs. Findings 👇1/9
Key Finding 1: The EU's 2030 climate target of -55 % requires a complete #coal phase-out in the power system by 2030. An EU-wide #CoalPhaseOut2030 saves 1 billion tons of CO2 compared to 40 % emissions reduction at little additional costs to consumers. 2/9
How will the EU coal phase-out by 2030 affect the price of #electricity? Consumers can expect a price increase of only 0.5 ct/kWh with a policy mix scenario - a figure that is dwarfed by the current increase in #powerprices driven by more costly #fossilgas. 3/9
Wahlkampfthema #Klimapolitik – wie erreicht DE das 2030-Klimaziel (-65 % ggü 1990)? Im Szenarienvergleich sind sich Gutachter:innen einig: Im Stromsektor muss die neue #BuReg mindestens zwei Punkte in den kommenden Jahren umsetzen. #btw21 1/7
1️⃣ Der Erneuerbaren-Ausbau muss an Tempo gewinnen – d.h. konkret: eine Verdreifachung der jährl. Installationszahlen von #Windkraft + #Solar|anlagen (5–6 GW #Windkraft an Land & 15 GW #Solarenergie). Je nach Szenario braucht DE bis 2030 zw. 435 und 554 TWh erneuerbarem Strom. 2/7
2️⃣ Die #BuReg muss den #Kohleausstieg auf 2030 vorziehen, um die gesetzlich verpflichtenden #Klimaziele zu erfüllen. In allen 2030-Szenarien sinkt #Kohlestrom auf 10 bis max. 28 TWh. Das entspricht dann noch 1 bis max. 5 % der gesamten dt. Stromerzeugung. 3/7
Damit DE das 2030-Klimaziel erreicht, müssen jährl. knapp 30 Mrd. € Bundesmittel in den #Klimaschutz fließen – 2x so viel wie bisher veranschlagt. Mit kommunalen Bedarfen sogar 3x mehr öffentl. Mittel. Unsere Studie mit @ForumNewEconomy + @Tom_Krebs: bit.ly/2X2XPDr 1/11
Ergebnis 1: Insgesamt müssen in DE von 2021–2030 rund 46 Mrd. € jährl. in Klimaschutz fließen (Bund + Kommunen). Der Finanzbedarf ist hoch, aber der Herausforderung angemessen. Zum Vergleich: Bund & Länder zahlen für Wiederaufbau nach der diesjähr. Flut 30 Mrd €. 2/11
Ergebnis 2: Es braucht knapp 30 Mrd. € jährlich an Bundesmitteln für den Klimaschutz – fast doppelt so viel wie bisher geplant. Dazu gehört auch die Förderung privater #Investitionen. 3/11
Die Emissionen steigen wieder. Damit DE die Klimaziele nicht verfehlt, muss die neue #BuReg in den ersten 100 Tagen das ehrgeizigste #Klimaschutzsofortprogramm der Geschichte vorlegen. Unser Vorschlag: 22 Maßnahmen für alle Sektoren #100Tage4Climatebit.ly/2YdkFIV 1/11
Die neue #BuReg muss in den ersten 100 Tagen schnell handeln + die Anstrengungen im #Klimaschutz verdreifachen. Denn künftig muss DE statt bisher 14 Mio t jährlich 30-40 Mio t CO2 einsparen, um das 2030-Ziel & #klimaneutral2045 zu erreichen. #100Tage4Climate#btw21 2/11