With the #SofiaDeclaration, the 6 #WesternBalkans countries have committed to #climateneutrality in 2050. To achieve this, a #lignite phase-out for power production is needed, ideally by 2040. To support the debate, we have developed 6 pathways (THREAD). #EUGreenDeal 1/12 The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans
Where do we stand today? WB-6 power markets consist almost exclusively of two generation technologies: #lignite and #hydro. The share of either source varies considerably between the countries. 2/12 The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans
Finding 1: 90 % of #lignite power plants in the #westernbalkans was put into operation 30 or more years ago. 40 % of the capacities are older than 40 years. The power plant park is in urgent need of #modernisation. 3/12
Finding 2: 2 GW of new #lignite capacity is planned. However, with a CO2 price on the horizon, lignite plants will generate more and more loss by 2040. Why? Low efficiency of lignite mining + cost of air pollution regulations + little export opportunities due to #CBAM. 4/12 The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans
Finding 3: Economically, existing #lignite units should be closed by 2040. Lignite phase-out without CO2 pricing (unlikely) increases system costs by €3-4/MWh. However, with EU #CBAM scheme or another CO2 pricing form, lignite plant retirements by 2040 reduce system costs. 5/12 The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans
The recently proposed CBAM (@EU_Commission) questions the economics of newly planned #lignite in the Western Balkans. Any form of carbon pricing makes new lignite loss making. The plans for new lignite power plants should be halted and investments diverted. 6/12 The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans
Finding 4: Security of supply will be ensured with: 1) rapid #renewables expansion, 2) strengthened interconnected grids, 3) regional #electricity market integration, 4) expansion of existing water storage facilities 5) targeted investment in flexible gas-fired power plants. 7/12
Finding 5: Replacing #lignite with renewables lowers wholesale prices, hedges against carbon prices & avoids stranding fossil infrastructure. Renewable expansion can be financed from market revenues. Coupled with a "just transition" policy ensures that no one is left behind. 8/12
Finding 6: To achieve phase-out by 2040, WB-6 need #investments of € 38-40 billion by 2050. Investment parts can be financed by #EU + other IFIs, burden should not be shouldered by the region alone. Investment boost will increase economic activity + employment potential. 9/12
Outlook: The study and accompanying results are based on 6 core scenarios for the 6 Western Balkan power markets along 2 dimensions: 1) the future #energy policy strategy + 2) presence & design of a regional #CO2pricing mechanism. 10/12
For this publication we have teamed up with enervis energy advisors + our regional think tank partners RESET (Bosnia and Herzegovina), INDEP (Kosovo) and ASOR (Serbia). Our Colleagues involved: Christian Redl & Sonja Risteska. 11/12
Our study “The Future of Lignite in the Western Balkans” is now on our website available for download: bit.ly/3uIYM0f 12/12

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5 Oct
EU #CoalPhaseOut action plan: 16 EU Members States will be #coal free by 2025, remaining states must follow by 2030 for a cost-efficient #netzero pathway. 6 countries not yet committed to 2030. We identified a policy mix without new fuel lock-ins & minimum costs. Findings 👇1/9 Phasing out coal in the EU’s power system by 2030
Key Finding 1: The EU's 2030 climate target of -55 % requires a complete #coal phase-out in the power system by 2030. An EU-wide #CoalPhaseOut2030 saves 1 billion tons of CO2 compared to 40 % emissions reduction at little additional costs to consumers. 2/9
How will the EU coal phase-out by 2030 affect the price of #electricity? Consumers can expect a price increase of only 0.5 ct/kWh with a policy mix scenario - a figure that is dwarfed by the current increase in #powerprices driven by more costly #fossilgas. 3/9 Phasing out coal in the EU’s power system by 2030
Read 9 tweets
17 Sep
Wahlkampfthema #Klimapolitik – wie erreicht DE das 2030-Klimaziel (-65 % ggü 1990)? Im Szenarienvergleich sind sich Gutachter:innen einig: Im Stromsektor muss die neue #BuReg mindestens zwei Punkte in den kommenden Jahren umsetzen. #btw21 1/7 Blog: Es führt nur ein Weg ...
1️⃣ Der Erneuerbaren-Ausbau muss an Tempo gewinnen – d.h. konkret: eine Verdreifachung der jährl. Installationszahlen von #Windkraft + #Solar|anlagen (5–6 GW #Windkraft an Land & 15 GW #Solarenergie). Je nach Szenario braucht DE bis 2030 zw. 435 und 554 TWh erneuerbarem Strom. 2/7
2️⃣ Die #BuReg muss den #Kohleausstieg auf 2030 vorziehen, um die gesetzlich verpflichtenden #Klimaziele zu erfüllen. In allen 2030-Szenarien sinkt #Kohlestrom auf 10 bis max. 28 TWh. Das entspricht dann noch 1 bis max. 5 % der gesamten dt. Stromerzeugung. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
8 Sep
Damit DE das 2030-Klimaziel erreicht, müssen jährl. knapp 30 Mrd. € Bundesmittel in den #Klimaschutz fließen – 2x so viel wie bisher veranschlagt. Mit kommunalen Bedarfen sogar 3x mehr öffentl. Mittel. Unsere Studie mit @ForumNewEconomy + @Tom_Krebs: bit.ly/2X2XPDr 1/11 Öffentliche Finanzbedarfe für Klimainvestitionen im Zeitra
Ergebnis 1: Insgesamt müssen in DE von 2021–2030 rund 46 Mrd. € jährl. in Klimaschutz fließen (Bund + Kommunen). Der Finanzbedarf ist hoch, aber der Herausforderung angemessen. Zum Vergleich: Bund & Länder zahlen für Wiederaufbau nach der diesjähr. Flut 30 Mrd €. 2/11 Öffentliche Finanzbedarfe für Klimainvestitionen im Zeitra
Ergebnis 2: Es braucht knapp 30 Mrd. € jährlich an Bundesmitteln für den Klimaschutz – fast doppelt so viel wie bisher geplant. Dazu gehört auch die Förderung privater #Investitionen. 3/11 Öffentliche Finanzbedarfe für Klimainvestitionen im Zeitra
Read 11 tweets
30 Aug
Die Emissionen steigen wieder. Damit DE die Klimaziele nicht verfehlt, muss die neue #BuReg in den ersten 100 Tagen das ehrgeizigste #Klimaschutzsofortprogramm der Geschichte vorlegen. Unser Vorschlag: 22 Maßnahmen für alle Sektoren #100Tage4Climate bit.ly/2YdkFIV 1/11 Das Klimaschutz-Sofortprogramm
Die neue #BuReg muss in den ersten 100 Tagen schnell handeln + die Anstrengungen im #Klimaschutz verdreifachen. Denn künftig muss DE statt bisher 14 Mio t jährlich 30-40 Mio t CO2 einsparen, um das 2030-Ziel & #klimaneutral2045 zu erreichen. #100Tage4Climate #btw21 2/11
Diese 22 Eckpunkte für ein #KlimschutzSofortprogramm stellen die Weichen für eine Verdreifachung der #Erneuerbaren + einen früheren #Kohleausstieg 2030 + eine soziale Verkehrs- und Wärmewende und bringen DE auf Kurs für #klimaneutral2045. #100Tage4Climate #btw21 3/11
Read 11 tweets
14 Jul
Ahead of crucial #COP26 & amid intensifying climate crisis, the @EU_ Commission today presents the #FitFor55 package aiming at cutting EU emissions by 55% by 2030. Implementation will require far-reaching changes in mobility, housing, land use, industrial production. 1/11
The @EU_Commission sends the following signal to the international community: EU ups the ante to align the block on the 1.5° pathway, as pledged in the #ParisAgreement. #Fitfor55 will show whether the EU is ready to walk the climate talk while ensuring a just transition. 2/11
The walk will only be fully successful if environmental integrity and social and distributional justice go hand in hand. Agora welcomes the setting up of a social fund to ensure that its #Fitfor55 proposals lead to greater social solidarity. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
16 Jun
#Kohleausstieg 2030: Green Deal und Klimaschutzgesetz sorgen dafür, dass Deutschlands Ausstieg aus der Kohle deutlich früher kommt als geplant. THREAD. Mehr Details gibt’s hier: bit.ly/3zE94ki (1/7) Warum Deutschlands neue Klimaziele den Kohleausstieg bis 203
Zwischen 2015 und 2020 hat sich die europäische Stromerzeugung aus #Kohlekraftwerken bereits halbiert. (2/7)
Der Hauptgrund: Mehr #ErneuerbareEnergien, niedrige Gaspreise und steigende Preise im CO₂-Zertifikatehandel. Letztere sind bis Mai 2021 auf über 50 €/t gestiegen. Das führt dazu, dass #Kohlestrom immer teurer wird. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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