At edecarb.org I’ve updated 24-country #electricity profiles, to 2020, with constant prices & stand-alone wind & solar, as below.
Mini-thread presents interim analysis, with time-series cross-section (TSCS) regression forthcoming for inference/significance testing
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Analyzing rollout, look at sustained material peak rollout (SMPR) – any period in which Nuclear (N) or Wind & Solar (WS) expanded gen%mix >1%/year over ≈10 yrs.
Graphic shows sample countries on average rolled out N faster (3.5%) than WS (2.0%).
What may explain result? Am researching diff. contexts N/WS started SMPRs (avg. 1978/N; 2009/WS): 1) political/financial costs of %mix growth (i.e. adding to vs. displacing (stranded) assets) lower for N during robust TWh growth (≈8%/yr early-1970s) vs ≈0%/yr late-2000s for WS.
2) also means N had to compete with fossil fuel (FF) only, while WS with FF & N; 3) implement. of N facilitated by trad. State-centralized sector in 1970s, vs. liberalized & decentralized 2000s for WS.
Given this, unlikely any sample WS SMPR will match BE,FI,FR,HU ≈6%/yr N SMPRs
What effect of N & WS on emissions? Graphic shows simple regression analysis of SMPRs & shows that on average both N & WS associated with similar emissions reduction ≈6.5 kg/MWh per 1%mix.
Result consistent with my expectations, nevertheless, significance testing forthcoming.
How about effect of N & WS on prices? Graphic shows simple regression analysis of SMPRs & shows on average N has ≈$0 price association, but WS is associated with price increase of ≈$1/MWh per 1%mix.
Result consistent with expectations, inference/significance testing forthcoming
What may explain result? Am researching diff. econ regulation: 1) N prices at “cost-plus” under trad. 1970s regulation vs. WS subsidies in 2000s (e.g FIT (EEG) levies in DE); 2) whether grid-integration costs (lower gas CFs, etc.) are higher for WS than N. bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/A…
This is an ongoing research project.
One aim is to prepare/submit time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) paper to peer-review journal.
I've started lit. review – would appreciate refs. to TSCS/quantitative electricity papers.
Check out country profiles at edecarb.org
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Include emissions & price averages (AVG) from 24-country sample 4 comparison!
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With no hydro resources, Denmark relied on coal & oil and had very high emissions until early 2000s when non-hydro renewables (RE) & gas started to displace coal.
Since then, RE has grown but so has biomass, so that emissions lowered to AVG.
Prices have increased well above AVG.
France reduced emissions intensity by 80% in 11 peak years of nuclear rollout of late-1970s. Went from AVG to very low emissions, maintaining AVG prices.
Emissions have stayed very low with stable nuclear & some hydro, sup. by small non-hydro renewables. Prices remain below AVG.
For comparison, I now also include price & emissions average (AVG) from full 24-country sample!
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First off, Austria, with ample hydro resources (70%), resulting in whole-period low emissions, well below 24-country AVG
Remaining oil & coal now replaced with non-hydro renewables & gas, further lowering emissions
Prices have tracked AVG prices, with increase last 15 years
Finland reduced emissions intensity by 70% in 8 years due to nuclear rollout of late-1970s. Went from AVG to low emissions, maintaining below-AVG prices.
Emissions have stayed below AVG with stable nuclear & hydro stable, supplemented by non-hydro renewables recently.
2/n. There are many ways to compare performance "traditional" vs. "restructured" USA states.
An influential analysis by @BorensteinS & Bushnell (2015) argues restructuring did not lower retail prices and was mostly driven by “pursuit of quasi-rents”.
3/n. In a very recent paper, Ken Rose et al (2021) confirm that retail prices have increased in restructured states relative to traditional states, after controlling for a series of other variables...
1/n. Who can be opposed to "energy democracy", right?
When writing my 2018 @ccpa article on the Ontario, Canada electricity reforms, I wanted to explore whether the now-revoked Green Energy Act (GEA) had "democratized" electricity supply.
2/n. Cost side of GEA ledger is known (+prices, +budgets, etc.), but could we add "democracy" to benefits side?
Gov't promoted GEA based on Germany, where 50% RE contracts are co-ops+.
In prepping for @Dr_Keefer episode, looked for updated Ontario %
3/3. Data hard to come by; in 2018 I estimated 5% RE contracts were coops.
New PhD calculates only 3.3%, stating "GEEA turned out to be a failure on energy democracy front, continuing...corporate welfare"
So no, the GEA did not "democratize" the grid... tspace.library.utoronto.ca/handle/1807/10…
1/N: My previous 9-country #COVID19 age-based case analysis was "static" due to data limitations, etc.
In this thread I present a dynamic analysis of case rates for high-risk age groups since the beginning of the pandemic in #Italy, #Spain, #Germany, #Canada & #Chile
Thread...
2/N: Focus is on 60+ age groups because, due to higher CFRs, these account for 90-95% of all fatalities
To reduce fatalities in current AND future #COVID19 waves, it is critical to understand case dynamics & whether "real" and generalized and if so, what are possible drivers?
3/N: @AndreasShrugged beat me to presenting dynamic analysis for #Germany & started interesting discussion, which can now be generalized based on 4+ countries
F3 presents same data differently (distinct periods, excl <60), with same results - an increase in cases for 80+ group