- 175 #ISIS dead, 450 recaptured & dozens, possibly 100s more escaped & on the loose.
- 27 #SDF dead & 25 held hostage;
- 45,000 civilians displaced.

This was #ISIS's biggest attack in #Syria & #Iraq for 3yrs
After 5 days of fighting, a mammoth force -- 10,000 #SDF fighters + U.S. & UK special forces + U.S. air support -- has fought back, but still, 25% of al-Sina Prison remains in #ISIS hands & #ISIS cells continue to fight in x2 parallel neighborhoods.
Q -- how did 200 #ISIS fighters (many wearing suicide belts) & x2 car bombs get past ~12 #SDF checkpoints, into a heavily fortified city, home to the largest #ISIS detainee facility in the world?

It's almost certain now that #ISIS infiltrated/bribed #SDF-linked security forces.
Footage from inside the prison suggests #ISIS prisoners likely knew about the attack in advance -- it's an open secret that cell phone access (often via bribed #SDF guards) is commonplace inside al-Sina Prison.

A coalition investigation should look squarely into all of this.
The #SDF has been accusing #Turkey of complicity, yet:

- "The #SDF missed entirely a force of 200 jihadists & 2 car bombs entering a heavily guarded city under its control, so its claims to know precisely where they came from should be treated with a mightily big grain of salt."
It's been clear for yrs that holding 1,000s of #ISIS fighters in makeshift prisons (al-Sina is a former school complex, surrounded by walls) was a ticking time bomb -- and yet the detainee file "hasn't moved an inch" since 2014.

Not to mention the women/kids in internment camps.
Ultimately however, the biggest takeaway is that #ISIS has -- as some of us have warned -- been slowly & methodically rebuilding itself since 2019.

Rolling back territory was the easy part -- COIN + CT requires deeper resources, not troop/funding cuts & more pressure on #SDF.
A new #ISIS Amaq release shows fighters inside al-Sina Prison's northern wing, as of today, amid *heavy* fighting.

Worth asking the Q at this point -- whenever this is resolved, is the facility still going to be a viable prison for the ~1,000s of #ISIS detainees? If not, where?
I spoke with @ritula & @R4WorldTonight this evening about #ISIS's assault on the al-Sina Prison in #Hasakeh & the 5-day battle that's followed -- a clear indicator of #ISIS's recovery & strategic intent in #Syria/#Iraq.

From 31:30:

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…
Beyond images of Bradley’s from previous days, more of an indication here of U.S. SOF involvement in the #SDF operation to retake al-Sina Prison & nearby streets/buildings from #ISIS:
We're now entering Day 6 of fighting, since #ISIS's assault on al-Sina Prison in NE #Syria.

Per the #SDF, ~20% of the prison remains in #ISIS control amid a slow-grinding stand-off in the northern wing.

100s remain in that 20% -- #ISIS fighters, underage detainees & hostages.
The situation in the #ISIS-held "20%" of the prison is deteriorating fast -- *very* grisly video has emerged via #ISIS fighters, showing corpses & many wounded/dying men & unarmed boys.

That footage is being widely shared across #ISIS's channels -- eerily reminiscent of Baghouz.
Meanwhile, #ISIS fighters remain active in x2 parallel neighborhoods (al-Ghweiran & al-Zuhour), periodically engaging the #SDF.

We now also know that #ISIS escapees have fanned out -- dispersing along the river SW of Hasakeh & to Jabal Abdulaziz, swelling long-term capabilities.
BREAKING -- #SDF claim to have fully secured al-Sina Prison, after nearly 7 days of fighting.

Huge #ISIS surrender just now, as the northern wing (a) ran out of ammunition & (b) buckled after no food for a week.
The #SDF & @CJTFOIR now face an extraordinary challenge -- of re-housing & re-securing 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners.

Al-Sina Prison has sustained heavy damage & it's unclear how much of its "extension" is ready to replace the original facility.

Big short-term security risks now.
@CJTFOIR According to the #SDF, 'approximately' 250 #ISIS fighters have been killed in/around al-Sina Prison over the last 6 days -- but around 200 were involved in the initial attack.

So if there's a headcount done of previous/current detainees, we'll soon know how many got away alive.
@CJTFOIR Perhaps "the safety of the children" would have been better achieved had they not been placed in a makeshift prison, alongside 1,000s of battle-hardened #ISIS jihadists, *by the #SDF,* which previously judged them to be security risks, for the past 3-4yrs??

Let's be honest here.
@CJTFOIR There's still a lot we don't know about al-Sina Prison numbers.

The #SDF's numbers have varied in recent days, from a pre-attack population of 3,000-5,000.

"100s" surrendered today & before that, about 1,000 more, so did some never escape?

If not, then a lot escaped for good.
@CJTFOIR Good @CJTFOIR statement:

- This is a global problem requiring a multinational, long-term solution;
- Makeshift prisons are a breeding ground for #ISIS;
- A thorough investigation is needed into how this attack was allowed to happen.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Jan 20
BREAKING -- reports of an attack on the al-Sina prison in al-Hasakeh, NE #Syria, possibly involving an IED/VBIED.

The prison holds 5,000 #ISIS militants, mostly foreign fighters.

Local sources say prisoners conducted some form of incident in coordination with the bombing.
An #ISIS plot to attack al-Sina Prison was foiled in November 2021 -- involving an SVBIED & assault team equipped with a pick-up truck of rifles to provide to #ISIS prisoners inside.

Very concerning to see prisons coming under #ISIS's attention again, in January 2022.
This video reportedly shows the aftermath of a suspected car bomb outside al-Sina Prison's exterior walls:



Some sources say ~20 #ISIS detainees escaped. U.S. aircraft now overhead.
Read 28 tweets
Jan 14
What's strange about this paper though, is that the conclusion rules that [in the context of the #Afghanistan withdrawal], drone campaigns *are* a viable alternative to large-scale deployments, though are insufficient to eliminate a terror group outright.

Let's dig into that...
The @TXNatSecReview paper's focus is on a drone campaign that benefited from an enormous U.S. & allied deployment in #Afghanistan & an accompanying extensive intelligence network that fed strikes.

With all of that on-side, the campaign was judged good, but far from a success.
@TXNatSecReview So with troops now out of #Afghanistan, the #Taliban in control, and no basing rights for near-proximity drone ops, how can the #FATA drone campaign be used to defend the viability of what's being proposed today -- a [distant] "over horizon" effort with little/no intel network?
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
So, the #UAE is the first to meet in-person, in the open with #Assad -- the 21st century's #Hitler.

Not a good look for a foreign ministry that in its own words, was established to "support internationally recognized morals & ethics."
As I wrote several weeks ago, the path towards #Assad's normalization may have been partially paved, but the ambiguity of the #Biden admin's #Syria policy & its inaction has provided an opening.

Green or orange light is irrelevant -- the effect is clear.

Some suggest the recent surge in engagement with #Assad is an implementation of the often discussed "step for step" approach.

Nonsense.

#Syria's regime is giving nothing in return for normalizing moves by the #UAE, #Jordan, #Algeria & others -- it remains as brutal as ever.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
#Turkey-#Iraq coordinated #ISIS raid in #Syria.

I suspected this would have been the case -- #Turkey's (MIT) been tracking #ISIS senior movements between NW-NE #Syria in recent months.

Some #HTS (SSG) raids on #ISIS in #Idlib have (I'm told) been conducted on MIT intelligence.
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.

Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.

That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).

Fascinating new details.

reuters.com/world/middle-e… Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 1, 2021
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.

There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 16, 2021
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."

@BrookingsInst President Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."

Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."

Gen. Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
Read 5 tweets

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