BREAKING -- reports of an attack on the al-Sina prison in al-Hasakeh, NE #Syria, possibly involving an IED/VBIED.
The prison holds 5,000 #ISIS militants, mostly foreign fighters.
Local sources say prisoners conducted some form of incident in coordination with the bombing.
An #ISIS plot to attack al-Sina Prison was foiled in November 2021 -- involving an SVBIED & assault team equipped with a pick-up truck of rifles to provide to #ISIS prisoners inside.
Very concerning to see prisons coming under #ISIS's attention again, in January 2022.
This video reportedly shows the aftermath of a suspected car bomb outside al-Sina Prison's exterior walls:
Some sources say ~20 #ISIS detainees escaped. U.S. aircraft now overhead.
NEW - the #SDF claim to have “thwarted” the #ISIS attack on the prison, though the VBIED did detonate & clashes reached the prison perimeter & caused casualties.
Unclear if initial reports of prisoner escape were accurate or leaked amid chaos.
Nearly 24hrs after #ISIS's attack on al-Sina prison began, the #SDF is still engaged in clashes in #Hasakeh's Ghweiran area.
Per #SDF, 89 #ISIS escapees have been caught -- but judging by events, it wouldn't surprise me if 100s had escaped overnight.
Area being evacuated now.
Meanwhile, across the border in #Iraq, 11 Iraqi soldiers were killed in a dawn #ISIS assault on a military base in #Diyala -- yet another reminder that the #ISIS challenge is far, far from over.
Local sources in #Hasakeh say US helicopters have fired on #ISIS militants in the Ghweiran area within the last hour -- #SDF forces remain engaged in heavy fighting too.
Increasingly clear that initial #SDF reporting was very flawed -- this was *far* from a "thwarted" attack.
This #ISIS attack on al-Sina prison is our clearest warning yet of the consequences of leaving 1,000s of jihadists in makeshift prisons in NE #Syria.
While many governments have begun a slow process of assessing returns of women/kids, the male prisoner issue remains 100% stuck.
For 2+yrs, most Western governments refused to repatriate women/kids -- until relatively recently.
BUT now the obstacle has changed (according to 6 European officials leading on this issue that I've spoken to) -- the #SDF is now throwing obstacles into the repatriation process.
Why would the #SDF slow down (not block) EU govt's newly open position to assessing repatriation of women/kids?
The officials I've spoken to had the same answer: 'the moment women/kids cease to be a policy issue, EU govt's will have less of an incentive to invest in NE #Syria.
But none of that touches upon the fact that 10,000+ battle-hardened #ISIS male fighters remain in poorly-managed, minimally-resourced prison facilities in NE #Syria.
As many of us have said for years now -- it's a ticking time bomb with no visible solution.
The fighting ongoing in #Hasakeh right now is the heaviest I've seen since 2019 -- constant heavy weapons fire & reported strikes by helicopters & drones.
One battle, involving #ISIS holed up in a multi-storey building, brought a massive U.S. airstrike:
The U.S. airstrike (video above) hit this targeted building & turned 25% of it into rubble.
Civilian evacuation of Ghweiran is ongoing -- 100s moved into the countryside today, to make space for intense fighting.
- The entire northern wing of al-Sina prison is completely under #ISIS control -- he didn't know how many militants were in that zone of the facility.
- Fighting with #ISIS is also still ongoing in #Hasakeh city tonight (24hrs later).
- @farhad_shami responded claiming that a "foreign power" had provided resources for the attack (he means #Turkey, which is of course, absurd).
@alhurranews@farhad_shami Putting aside the politics, an 80-man + VBIED #ISIS assault in an urban environment fully controlled by the #SDF, targeting the biggest prison for #ISIS detainees is... a VERY big deal.
That's a massive & complex operation -- FAR bigger than anything we've seen since March 2019.
@alhurranews@farhad_shami NEW -- reports that #ISIS is engaged in a full assault on an #SDF prison (holding senior #ISIS commanders) near the Conoco facility in Deir ez Zour, amid several other attacks on #SDF positions in DZ (presumably intended to distract & stretch resources).
It's now been 30hrs since the initial attack on al-Sina prison & #ISIS also still control 25% of the prison (the north wing) itself.
Clashes between the #SDF & #ISIS continue today, as #ISIS’s assault on al-Sina prison extends to nearly 48hrs.
#ISIS (& 100-1000s of prisoners) still controls the prison’s northern wing & dozens of militants continue to hold positions in the surrounding streets in #Hasakeh city.
48hrs ago, an #ISIS truck bomb detonated outside the al-Sina prison & ~80 #ISIS militants launched a multi-axis assault -- freeing 100s of prisoners.
48hrs later, 100+ dead, intense battles continue in #Hasakeh city & #ISIS controls ~30% of the prison.
While U.S. Apache helos have been engaged in supporting #SDF units on the ground, it appears the U.S. military has now deployed Bradley Fighting Vehicles into #Hasakeh, as the fighting enters a 3rd night.
U.S. SOF also allegedly advising behind frontlines, calling strikes etc.
It's the biggest #ISIS attack & most sustained fighting in ~3yrs -- in other words, it's a big deal.
@alhurranews@jassim__press I also spoke to @TheWorld's Carol Hill about #ISIS's attack on al-Sina prison in #Hasakeh -- covering the attack, its implications & what this means going forward, for the U.S.-led coalition, the #SDF, #ISIS & more.
@alhurranews@jassim__press@TheWorld Having watched the 1st #ISIS footage recorded at the time of the initial attack on al-Sina Prison, it's increasingly clear that this was a *serious* intelligence failure from @CJTFOIR & the #SDF -- dozens of armed #ISIS militants are seen storming the prison facility in #Hasakeh.
What's strange about this paper though, is that the conclusion rules that [in the context of the #Afghanistan withdrawal], drone campaigns *are* a viable alternative to large-scale deployments, though are insufficient to eliminate a terror group outright.
The @TXNatSecReview paper's focus is on a drone campaign that benefited from an enormous U.S. & allied deployment in #Afghanistan & an accompanying extensive intelligence network that fed strikes.
With all of that on-side, the campaign was judged good, but far from a success.
@TXNatSecReview So with troops now out of #Afghanistan, the #Taliban in control, and no basing rights for near-proximity drone ops, how can the #FATA drone campaign be used to defend the viability of what's being proposed today -- a [distant] "over horizon" effort with little/no intel network?
As I wrote several weeks ago, the path towards #Assad's normalization may have been partially paved, but the ambiguity of the #Biden admin's #Syria policy & its inaction has provided an opening.
Green or orange light is irrelevant -- the effect is clear.
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.
Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.
That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.
There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."