BREAKING -- reports of an attack on the al-Sina prison in al-Hasakeh, NE #Syria, possibly involving an IED/VBIED.

The prison holds 5,000 #ISIS militants, mostly foreign fighters.

Local sources say prisoners conducted some form of incident in coordination with the bombing.
An #ISIS plot to attack al-Sina Prison was foiled in November 2021 -- involving an SVBIED & assault team equipped with a pick-up truck of rifles to provide to #ISIS prisoners inside.

Very concerning to see prisons coming under #ISIS's attention again, in January 2022.
This video reportedly shows the aftermath of a suspected car bomb outside al-Sina Prison's exterior walls:



Some sources say ~20 #ISIS detainees escaped. U.S. aircraft now overhead.
NEW - the #SDF claim to have “thwarted” the #ISIS attack on the prison, though the VBIED did detonate & clashes reached the prison perimeter & caused casualties.

Unclear if initial reports of prisoner escape were accurate or leaked amid chaos.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the #SDF's reporting of last night's #ISIS assault on al-Sina Prison was questionable, at best.

We now know 18 #SDF were killed in the attack & a *large* number of #ISIS militants escaped -- 89 have been captured since & 5 killed.
#ISIS prisoners continued to riot on/off thru the night & into today, leading to more violence & *possibly* more escapes.

One #SDF image of a killed #ISIS 'escapee' this AM appears to show a man/corpse clutching a walking stick.

#ISIS-linked sources claim 3 "leaders" are out.
Nearly 24hrs after #ISIS's attack on al-Sina prison began, the #SDF is still engaged in clashes in #Hasakeh's Ghweiran area.

Per #SDF, 89 #ISIS escapees have been caught -- but judging by events, it wouldn't surprise me if 100s had escaped overnight.

Area being evacuated now. Image
Meanwhile, across the border in #Iraq, 11 Iraqi soldiers were killed in a dawn #ISIS assault on a military base in #Diyala -- yet another reminder that the #ISIS challenge is far, far from over.
Local sources in #Hasakeh say US helicopters have fired on #ISIS militants in the Ghweiran area within the last hour -- #SDF forces remain engaged in heavy fighting too.

Increasingly clear that initial #SDF reporting was very flawed -- this was *far* from a "thwarted" attack.
This #ISIS attack on al-Sina prison is our clearest warning yet of the consequences of leaving 1,000s of jihadists in makeshift prisons in NE #Syria.

While many governments have begun a slow process of assessing returns of women/kids, the male prisoner issue remains 100% stuck.
For 2+yrs, most Western governments refused to repatriate women/kids -- until relatively recently.

BUT now the obstacle has changed (according to 6 European officials leading on this issue that I've spoken to) -- the #SDF is now throwing obstacles into the repatriation process.
Why would the #SDF slow down (not block) EU govt's newly open position to assessing repatriation of women/kids?

The officials I've spoken to had the same answer: 'the moment women/kids cease to be a policy issue, EU govt's will have less of an incentive to invest in NE #Syria.
But none of that touches upon the fact that 10,000+ battle-hardened #ISIS male fighters remain in poorly-managed, minimally-resourced prison facilities in NE #Syria.

As many of us have said for years now -- it's a ticking time bomb with no visible solution.
The fighting ongoing in #Hasakeh right now is the heaviest I've seen since 2019 -- constant heavy weapons fire & reported strikes by helicopters & drones.

One battle, involving #ISIS holed up in a multi-storey building, brought a massive U.S. airstrike:

The U.S. airstrike (video above) hit this targeted building & turned 25% of it into rubble.

Civilian evacuation of Ghweiran is ongoing -- 100s moved into the countryside today, to make space for intense fighting. ImageImage
In an interview 30mins ago on @alhurranews, #SDF spokesman @farhad_shami provided new details about the #ISIS attack on al-Sina prison in #Hasakeh:

- "80" #ISIS militants launched an assault overnight on the prison's east wing
- Prisoners inside launched a coordinated mutiny. Image
@alhurranews @farhad_shami #pt: According to the #SDF spokesman:

- The entire northern wing of al-Sina prison is completely under #ISIS control -- he didn't know how many militants were in that zone of the facility.
- Fighting with #ISIS is also still ongoing in #Hasakeh city tonight (24hrs later).
@alhurranews @farhad_shami The @alhurranews interviewer then suggested the #ISIS attack represented an #SDF intelligence failure.

- @farhad_shami responded claiming that a "foreign power" had provided resources for the attack (he means #Turkey, which is of course, absurd).
@alhurranews @farhad_shami Putting aside the politics, an 80-man + VBIED #ISIS assault in an urban environment fully controlled by the #SDF, targeting the biggest prison for #ISIS detainees is... a VERY big deal.

That's a massive & complex operation -- FAR bigger than anything we've seen since March 2019.
@alhurranews @farhad_shami NEW -- reports that #ISIS is engaged in a full assault on an #SDF prison (holding senior #ISIS commanders) near the Conoco facility in Deir ez Zour, amid several other attacks on #SDF positions in DZ (presumably intended to distract & stretch resources).

Marked escalation.
@alhurranews @farhad_shami Meanwhile, #ISIS & the #SDF remain engaged in clashes in #Hasakeh & U.S. Apache helicopters continue to fire on #ISIS positions in the city.

It's now been 30hrs since the initial attack on al-Sina prison & #ISIS also still control 25% of the prison (the north wing) itself.
Clashes between the #SDF & #ISIS continue today, as #ISIS’s assault on al-Sina prison extends to nearly 48hrs.

#ISIS (& 100-1000s of prisoners) still controls the prison’s northern wing & dozens of militants continue to hold positions in the surrounding streets in #Hasakeh city.
48hrs ago, an #ISIS truck bomb detonated outside the al-Sina prison & ~80 #ISIS militants launched a multi-axis assault -- freeing 100s of prisoners.

48hrs later, 100+ dead, intense battles continue in #Hasakeh city & #ISIS controls ~30% of the prison.

While U.S. Apache helos have been engaged in supporting #SDF units on the ground, it appears the U.S. military has now deployed Bradley Fighting Vehicles into #Hasakeh, as the fighting enters a 3rd night.

U.S. SOF also allegedly advising behind frontlines, calling strikes etc. Image
I spoke to @alhurranews yesterday, alongside @jassim__press, about the significance of #ISIS's prison attack in #Hasakeh, #Syria.

It's the biggest #ISIS attack & most sustained fighting in ~3yrs -- in other words, it's a big deal.

@alhurranews @jassim__press I also spoke to @TheWorld's Carol Hill about #ISIS's attack on al-Sina prison in #Hasakeh -- covering the attack, its implications & what this means going forward, for the U.S.-led coalition, the #SDF, #ISIS & more.

From 15:29:

theworld.org/programs/world… Image
@alhurranews @jassim__press @TheWorld Having watched the 1st #ISIS footage recorded at the time of the initial attack on al-Sina Prison, it's increasingly clear that this was a *serious* intelligence failure from @CJTFOIR & the #SDF -- dozens of armed #ISIS militants are seen storming the prison facility in #Hasakeh.
@alhurranews @jassim__press @TheWorld @CJTFOIR Per #SDF spokesman yesterday, 80+ #ISIS militants were involved in the initial attack -- just a stunning intel 'miss' in an urban environment.

Were #SDF prison guards bribed to facilitate the initial attack -- there's no way to know, but that was standard for #ISIS in 2012-2014.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Jan 14
What's strange about this paper though, is that the conclusion rules that [in the context of the #Afghanistan withdrawal], drone campaigns *are* a viable alternative to large-scale deployments, though are insufficient to eliminate a terror group outright.

Let's dig into that...
The @TXNatSecReview paper's focus is on a drone campaign that benefited from an enormous U.S. & allied deployment in #Afghanistan & an accompanying extensive intelligence network that fed strikes.

With all of that on-side, the campaign was judged good, but far from a success.
@TXNatSecReview So with troops now out of #Afghanistan, the #Taliban in control, and no basing rights for near-proximity drone ops, how can the #FATA drone campaign be used to defend the viability of what's being proposed today -- a [distant] "over horizon" effort with little/no intel network?
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
So, the #UAE is the first to meet in-person, in the open with #Assad -- the 21st century's #Hitler.

Not a good look for a foreign ministry that in its own words, was established to "support internationally recognized morals & ethics."
As I wrote several weeks ago, the path towards #Assad's normalization may have been partially paved, but the ambiguity of the #Biden admin's #Syria policy & its inaction has provided an opening.

Green or orange light is irrelevant -- the effect is clear.

Some suggest the recent surge in engagement with #Assad is an implementation of the often discussed "step for step" approach.

Nonsense.

#Syria's regime is giving nothing in return for normalizing moves by the #UAE, #Jordan, #Algeria & others -- it remains as brutal as ever.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
#Turkey-#Iraq coordinated #ISIS raid in #Syria.

I suspected this would have been the case -- #Turkey's (MIT) been tracking #ISIS senior movements between NW-NE #Syria in recent months.

Some #HTS (SSG) raids on #ISIS in #Idlib have (I'm told) been conducted on MIT intelligence.
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.

Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.

That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).

Fascinating new details.

reuters.com/world/middle-e… Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 1, 2021
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.

There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 16, 2021
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."

@BrookingsInst President Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."

Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."

Gen. Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 28, 2021
BREAKING -- a U.S. drone strike has targeted #ISIS-K operatives in eastern #Afghanistan.

via @idreesali114
@idreesali114 The U.S. strike today targeted #ISIS-K in #Afghanistan's #Nangarhar province

Earlier, unnamed IC officials had said explosive devices & other materials had been sent by #ISIS from #Nangarhar to #Kabul in recent days.
@idreesali114 Earlier today, the #Taliban was reported to have engaged in clashes with #ISIS-K cells in #Nangarhar's Dara-i-Noor district.

The #Taliban-#ISIS conflict has been centered in #Nangarhar & neighboring #Kunar provinces.
Read 8 tweets

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