As I wrote several weeks ago, the path towards #Assad's normalization may have been partially paved, but the ambiguity of the #Biden admin's #Syria policy & its inaction has provided an opening.
Green or orange light is irrelevant -- the effect is clear.
Some suggest the recent surge in engagement with #Assad is an implementation of the often discussed "step for step" approach.
Nonsense.
#Syria's regime is giving nothing in return for normalizing moves by the #UAE, #Jordan, #Algeria & others -- it remains as brutal as ever.
Whatever the motivation -- trade, energy, refugees or rivalry with #Iran or #Turkey -- there is & will be nothing to be gained from re-engaging & normalizing #Assad's rule in #Syria.
None of those goals will be met; they'll all end in disappointment -- only #Assad will benefit.
In July 2019, I wrote a then-controversial article in @ForeignPolicy -- "#Assad Hasn't Won Anything."
Even amid recent moves in the region, I stand by almost every word today, nearly 2.5yrs later.
You simply can't wish away/ignore the deep realities.
@ForeignPolicy For 10yrs, #Assad has presided over a conflict that's killed 500,000 & displaced 13+ million. 100,000 people are missing -- assumed "disappeared," thanks in part to bespoke prison crematoriums.
#Assad signed off on 340+ chemical weapons attacks, killing those he called "germs."
@ForeignPolicy A regime with a record of such enormous & unspeakable brutality should not be granted even a semblance of legitimacy.
There's more prosecutable evidence against #Assad than we had against #Hitler at #Nuremberg -- and yet some now celebrate a return to "brotherly" relations.
10yrs of unspeakable war crimes are now met with shrugged shoulders & policymakers are "fatigued" of talking about #Syria.
Never mind the deep analytical errors, the moral collapse is staggering.
@ForeignPolicy@DMiliband It's all well & good for the #Biden admin & EU allies to reiterate their public commitment to UNSCR2254 & 'no normalization' -- but the silence & inaction to recent actions speaks a thousand words.
Inaction is a policy too & it's often even more impactful than action itself.
- Help Syrians recover
- Help return 10 million refugees
- Increase Arab presence in #Syria
- Re-arrange the "Arab house"
- Reduce #Iran's presence
- End #Turkey's occupation
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.
Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.
That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.
There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."
#Biden's decision to stick to the Aug 31 deadline is bold -- it raises 2 key risks:
1) We'll be leaving people behind, certainly 1,000s of #Afghans & quite likely, a few Americans in hard-to-reach spots.
2) Other G7/NATO states have been rebuffed again by #Biden -- more anger.
"#Biden's decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal."
Note to all -- it *is* possible for both these things to be true:
1) The #Afghanistan withdrawal has been a debacle, due to a lack of planning; hurried schedule; & ignoring worst-case scenarios.
2) The USG & NATO evacuation effort in recent days has been extraordinary & heroic.
Similarly, while it's entirely legitimate to argue that staying in #Afghanistan for 20yrs was illustrative of mission creep and strategic errors, that doesn't in any way mean that a withdrawal was guaranteed to result in chaos, humanitarian crisis & a terrorist state.
If a public figure is telling you that policy 'failure' in #Afghanistan made chaos inevitable -- he/she is lying to you.
If a public figure tells you that the heroic [crisis] evacuation effort is evidence that everything's fine -- he/she is also lying to you.