So, the #UAE is the first to meet in-person, in the open with #Assad -- the 21st century's #Hitler.

Not a good look for a foreign ministry that in its own words, was established to "support internationally recognized morals & ethics."
As I wrote several weeks ago, the path towards #Assad's normalization may have been partially paved, but the ambiguity of the #Biden admin's #Syria policy & its inaction has provided an opening.

Green or orange light is irrelevant -- the effect is clear.

Some suggest the recent surge in engagement with #Assad is an implementation of the often discussed "step for step" approach.

Nonsense.

#Syria's regime is giving nothing in return for normalizing moves by the #UAE, #Jordan, #Algeria & others -- it remains as brutal as ever.
Whatever the motivation -- trade, energy, refugees or rivalry with #Iran or #Turkey -- there is & will be nothing to be gained from re-engaging & normalizing #Assad's rule in #Syria.

None of those goals will be met; they'll all end in disappointment -- only #Assad will benefit.
In July 2019, I wrote a then-controversial article in @ForeignPolicy -- "#Assad Hasn't Won Anything."

Even amid recent moves in the region, I stand by almost every word today, nearly 2.5yrs later.

You simply can't wish away/ignore the deep realities.

@ForeignPolicy For 10yrs, #Assad has presided over a conflict that's killed 500,000 & displaced 13+ million. 100,000 people are missing -- assumed "disappeared," thanks in part to bespoke prison crematoriums.

#Assad signed off on 340+ chemical weapons attacks, killing those he called "germs."
@ForeignPolicy A regime with a record of such enormous & unspeakable brutality should not be granted even a semblance of legitimacy.

There's more prosecutable evidence against #Assad than we had against #Hitler at #Nuremberg -- and yet some now celebrate a return to "brotherly" relations.
@ForeignPolicy .@DMiliband is sadly spot-on when he says we now live in "The Age of Impunity."

10yrs of unspeakable war crimes are now met with shrugged shoulders & policymakers are "fatigued" of talking about #Syria.

Never mind the deep analytical errors, the moral collapse is staggering.
@ForeignPolicy @DMiliband It's all well & good for the #Biden admin & EU allies to reiterate their public commitment to UNSCR2254 & 'no normalization' -- but the silence & inaction to recent actions speaks a thousand words.

Inaction is a policy too & it's often even more impactful than action itself.
@ForeignPolicy @DMiliband Apparently, today's ABZ visit to #Assad is going to:

- Help Syrians recover
- Help return 10 million refugees
- Increase Arab presence in #Syria
- Re-arrange the "Arab house"
- Reduce #Iran's presence
- End #Turkey's occupation

I'd laugh, if it wasn't so tragic.
@ForeignPolicy @DMiliband In response to today's #UAE visit to #Assad, @StateDeptSpox suggested that the U.S. was pre-informed of the trip... & he reiterated the long-standing #Obama-#Trump-#Biden lines:

- U.S won't normalize or upgrade ties with #Syria
- U.S doesn't support others normalizing/upgrading
@ForeignPolicy @DMiliband @StateDeptSpox After visiting #Assad in #Damascus, #UAE FM 'ABZ' is in #Jordan, meeting with King Abdullah, the other arm pushing the normalizing route with #Syria.

Our allies are clearly disinterested/undeterred by the meek statements of opposition from #Washington, #London et. al.
@ForeignPolicy @DMiliband @StateDeptSpox Rumors have been swirling since last night that during his visit to #Damascus yesterday, the #UAE FM may have invited #Assad to #Dubai to visit @expo2020dubai.

Very much unconfirmed, but if it happens, it'd be a development of enormous, irreversible significance.

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More from @Charles_Lister

12 Oct
#Turkey-#Iraq coordinated #ISIS raid in #Syria.

I suspected this would have been the case -- #Turkey's (MIT) been tracking #ISIS senior movements between NW-NE #Syria in recent months.

Some #HTS (SSG) raids on #ISIS in #Idlib have (I'm told) been conducted on MIT intelligence.
I'm seeing some credible claims that al-Juburi was captured *by* #Turkey in NW #Syria, brought north onto Turkish soil & then handed over to ISF for deportation to #Iraq.

Not confirmed, but would shake things up if true... and raise Qs about whether #HTS played a role too?
#ISIS leader "Jasim was in northwestern #Syria when he was caught with help from local security forces", per @Reuters.

That can only realistically mean #HTS &/or its Salvation Government's General Security Service (GSS).

Fascinating new details.

reuters.com/world/middle-e… Image
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
The idea that the CIA's T-50 program with the #FSA "failed" & the DOD's Train, Advise, Assist & Equip program with the #YPG-#SDF "succeeded" -- one key point made here -- is a bit of a simplification.

There can't be a direct comparison, given the operational differences.
The CIA's T50 program was covert & limited strictly to weapons supply & [very] limited intel support/external advice to groups (a) active in a highly complex environment, amid hostile jihadists & (b) against governments, with airforce/s, artillery etc.
The DOD's #YPG-#SDF program was initiated amid a direct U.S military intervention, in which U.S. SOF were deployed on the ground & close air support & later artillery support was provided -- to strengthen the #SDF, incentivize its unity, and protect it from *all* rivals/enemies.
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep
"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."

@BrookingsInst President Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."

Gen Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
@BrookingsInst @MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."

Gen. Allen speaking to @MiddleEastInst: Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Aug
BREAKING -- a U.S. drone strike has targeted #ISIS-K operatives in eastern #Afghanistan.

via @idreesali114
@idreesali114 The U.S. strike today targeted #ISIS-K in #Afghanistan's #Nangarhar province

Earlier, unnamed IC officials had said explosive devices & other materials had been sent by #ISIS from #Nangarhar to #Kabul in recent days.
@idreesali114 Earlier today, the #Taliban was reported to have engaged in clashes with #ISIS-K cells in #Nangarhar's Dara-i-Noor district.

The #Taliban-#ISIS conflict has been centered in #Nangarhar & neighboring #Kunar provinces.
Read 8 tweets
24 Aug
#Biden's decision to stick to the Aug 31 deadline is bold -- it raises 2 key risks:

1) We'll be leaving people behind, certainly 1,000s of #Afghans & quite likely, a few Americans in hard-to-reach spots.

2) Other G7/NATO states have been rebuffed again by #Biden -- more anger.
"#Biden's decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal."

Overall approval rating now 41%.

New polling on #Afghanistan's impact:

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… Image
BREAKING -- The US military has begun re-withdrawing from #Afghanistan, per US officials.

Very worrying sign for the 10,000s of those left behind - mostly #Americans, but some U.S. & European nationals too.
Read 65 tweets
24 Aug
Note to all -- it *is* possible for both these things to be true:

1) The #Afghanistan withdrawal has been a debacle, due to a lack of planning; hurried schedule; & ignoring worst-case scenarios.

2) The USG & NATO evacuation effort in recent days has been extraordinary & heroic.
Similarly, while it's entirely legitimate to argue that staying in #Afghanistan for 20yrs was illustrative of mission creep and strategic errors, that doesn't in any way mean that a withdrawal was guaranteed to result in chaos, humanitarian crisis & a terrorist state.
If a public figure is telling you that policy 'failure' in #Afghanistan made chaos inevitable -- he/she is lying to you.

If a public figure tells you that the heroic [crisis] evacuation effort is evidence that everything's fine -- he/she is also lying to you.

Think & question.
Read 6 tweets

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