Tensions rapidly escalating between the #SDF & #Turkey.

- Overnight #TSK strikes on #PKK in #Iraq & NE #Syria, killed combatant & civilians.

= #SDF shelling barrage killed 9 civilians & wounded 30 in al-Bab this AM.

= SNA retaliatory shelling

= #SDF accusing US of complicity.
The U.S. considers the #PKK a designated terrorist organization and *does* share intelligence & coordinate with #Turkey on countering the #PKK -- in #Syria, #Iraq & #Turkey.

As a member of the #PKK network, that places the #SDF in a very awkward place -- and @CJTFOIR too.
@CJTFOIR The #SDF's decision to shell from NE #Syria cross-border into #Turkey today -- targeting #Cizre was a serious escalation.

One #TSK soldier was killed in that attack -- and #Ankara has long determined cross-border attacks to be a thick red line.

Escalatory spiral well underway.
@CJTFOIR #ISIS's attack on al-Sina Prison in #Hasakeh was an embarrassment for the #SDF -- a massive security failure, missing 200-300 jihadists & x SVBIEDs passing 12 checkpoints inside a city.

Hysterical language since has been nothing more than an attempt to distract/divert attention.
@CJTFOIR The U.S. is not going to militarily protect the #SDF from #Turkey, let alone block #Turkey from striking the #PKK.

By escalating against #Turkey & inviting #TSK counter-escalation only endangers the #SDF & its relationship with the U.S.

It must (but won't) sever its #PKK ties.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Feb 3
#ISIS's choice of NW #Idlib as a hiding point for leaders raises complex analytical Qs.

What it does not suggest, is that #Idlib's de facto governing actor, #HTS, is in some way complicit in harboring #ISIS. That's simply factually illogical, given years of open hostility.
#HTS has conducted 100+ deadly raids targeting #ISIS cells in #Idlib since mid-2017 -- & is similarly hostile to #AlQaeda too, having wiped out AQ's operational presence in #Idlib 18 months ago.

Like all non-state actors, #HTS's capacity to know everything is distinctly limited.
Just like the #SDF missed 200-300 #ISIS militants & x2 SVBIEDs crossing 12 of their own checkpoints into #Hasakeh city & al-Sina Prison, #HTS missed a man & his family living in one level of a 3-storey building near #Atmeh -- an area flooded with transitory IDPs communities.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
Something big is going down in NW #Syria -- (a) U.S. helicopter gunships firing on a target in the #Jinderes area of #Afrin & (b) a possible SOF raid targeting Tauqir Sharif, a [former] #UK citizen in the Atmeh area of #Idlib.

Personally, I'd be amazed if such an operation was launched at Tauqir Sharif (Abu Hossam al-Britani) -- while his #UK citizenship was revoked, the cause for doing so never seemed more than tenuous. Image
The house in the #Atmeh area has reportedly been surrounded by [alleged U.S.] SOF -- a loudspeaker just ordered the building to be emptied.



My guess: it's a senior #AlQaeda (Huras al-Din) figure -- HaD seniors are known to hide in the Atmeh area.
Read 36 tweets
Feb 1
In providing cover for a regional energy deal via #Assad's #Syria, the #Biden admin has provided no "legal rationale" for avoiding #CaesarAct sanctions.

@SFRCdems & @HouseForeign should call the admin to testify & explain, or otherwise intervene.

fdd.org/analysis/2022/…
@SFRCdems @HouseForeign At the signing, #Lebanon's Energy Minister was caught on 'hot mic,' telling #Assad's Minister:

"I tell the US Ambassador she's my best friend; she could kill this deal.'

['Sure, sure,' in reply.]

'I say this laughing [to you] but I want to cry.'

@SFRCdems @HouseForeign What #Lebanon's Energy Minister was saying, was he's played U.S. Amb. Shea along, but in truth, his true allegiance is with #Assad's regime & its interests.

Even when faced with such bold [& embarassing] reality, some still appear totally blinkered:

Read 8 tweets
Jan 24
- 175 #ISIS dead, 450 recaptured & dozens, possibly 100s more escaped & on the loose.
- 27 #SDF dead & 25 held hostage;
- 45,000 civilians displaced.

This was #ISIS's biggest attack in #Syria & #Iraq for 3yrs
After 5 days of fighting, a mammoth force -- 10,000 #SDF fighters + U.S. & UK special forces + U.S. air support -- has fought back, but still, 25% of al-Sina Prison remains in #ISIS hands & #ISIS cells continue to fight in x2 parallel neighborhoods.
Q -- how did 200 #ISIS fighters (many wearing suicide belts) & x2 car bombs get past ~12 #SDF checkpoints, into a heavily fortified city, home to the largest #ISIS detainee facility in the world?

It's almost certain now that #ISIS infiltrated/bribed #SDF-linked security forces.
Read 19 tweets
Jan 20
BREAKING -- reports of an attack on the al-Sina prison in al-Hasakeh, NE #Syria, possibly involving an IED/VBIED.

The prison holds 5,000 #ISIS militants, mostly foreign fighters.

Local sources say prisoners conducted some form of incident in coordination with the bombing.
An #ISIS plot to attack al-Sina Prison was foiled in November 2021 -- involving an SVBIED & assault team equipped with a pick-up truck of rifles to provide to #ISIS prisoners inside.

Very concerning to see prisons coming under #ISIS's attention again, in January 2022.
This video reportedly shows the aftermath of a suspected car bomb outside al-Sina Prison's exterior walls:



Some sources say ~20 #ISIS detainees escaped. U.S. aircraft now overhead.
Read 28 tweets
Jan 14
What's strange about this paper though, is that the conclusion rules that [in the context of the #Afghanistan withdrawal], drone campaigns *are* a viable alternative to large-scale deployments, though are insufficient to eliminate a terror group outright.

Let's dig into that...
The @TXNatSecReview paper's focus is on a drone campaign that benefited from an enormous U.S. & allied deployment in #Afghanistan & an accompanying extensive intelligence network that fed strikes.

With all of that on-side, the campaign was judged good, but far from a success.
@TXNatSecReview So with troops now out of #Afghanistan, the #Taliban in control, and no basing rights for near-proximity drone ops, how can the #FATA drone campaign be used to defend the viability of what's being proposed today -- a [distant] "over horizon" effort with little/no intel network?
Read 5 tweets

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