#ISIS's choice of NW #Idlib as a hiding point for leaders raises complex analytical Qs.
What it does not suggest, is that #Idlib's de facto governing actor, #HTS, is in some way complicit in harboring #ISIS. That's simply factually illogical, given years of open hostility.
What it does not suggest, is that #Idlib's de facto governing actor, #HTS, is in some way complicit in harboring #ISIS. That's simply factually illogical, given years of open hostility.
#HTS has conducted 100+ deadly raids targeting #ISIS cells in #Idlib since mid-2017 -- & is similarly hostile to #AlQaeda too, having wiped out AQ's operational presence in #Idlib 18 months ago.
Like all non-state actors, #HTS's capacity to know everything is distinctly limited.
Like all non-state actors, #HTS's capacity to know everything is distinctly limited.
Just like the #SDF missed 200-300 #ISIS militants & x2 SVBIEDs crossing 12 of their own checkpoints into #Hasakeh city & al-Sina Prison, #HTS missed a man & his family living in one level of a 3-storey building near #Atmeh -- an area flooded with transitory IDPs communities.
So as the dust settles following last night's SOF raid against #ISIS, let's ask & assess the many important analytical questions -- about #ISIS, its leadership, command/control, operational capabilities etc.
This was a U.S. SOF op -- nothing more.
This was a U.S. SOF op -- nothing more.
On those important Qs, one issue springs to my mind today:
For 1-2yrs, USG messaging has presented #ISIS as a weak terror group in decline, but today, we've heard a different story; a leader in consistent communication locally & globally, coordinating ops & more.
Which is it?
For 1-2yrs, USG messaging has presented #ISIS as a weak terror group in decline, but today, we've heard a different story; a leader in consistent communication locally & globally, coordinating ops & more.
Which is it?
Some Qs about the raid itself:
- The U.S. claims casualties were sustained when (1) Haji Abdullah detonated the 3rd floor & (2) in a gun battle with his deputy & his wife on the 2nd floor.
- The U.S. acknowledges 4 deaths, but we know there were 14, including 6 kids & 4 women.
- The U.S. claims casualties were sustained when (1) Haji Abdullah detonated the 3rd floor & (2) in a gun battle with his deputy & his wife on the 2nd floor.
- The U.S. acknowledges 4 deaths, but we know there were 14, including 6 kids & 4 women.
From multiple videos last night, we also heard crystal clear audio of U.S. helicopters firing heavy weapons at the house -- long, sustained bursts over a prolonged period of time.
It seems almost guaranteed that that killed more than a man & his wife (armed with AKs), right?
It seems almost guaranteed that that killed more than a man & his wife (armed with AKs), right?
Over the past 24hrs, I've heard from several reliable sources in #Atmeh & NW #Idlib that #HTS:
- Totally locked down all roads around #Atmeh & prevented some people living close to #HTS positions from leaving their homes during & after the U.S SOF raid on #ISIS's leader nearby.
- Totally locked down all roads around #Atmeh & prevented some people living close to #HTS positions from leaving their homes during & after the U.S SOF raid on #ISIS's leader nearby.
As the raid was ongoing, I was told by someone in #Atmeh that #HTS checkpoints had been significantly bolstered that evening -- but it was unclear then whether those reinforcements had arrived before the U.S. raid began, or during it.
It now seems they were deployed beforehand.
It now seems they were deployed beforehand.
I've also heard from reliable sources that #HTS issued a district-wide security alert in #Harem (within which Atmeh is located) early on Feb 2, ~12hrs before the U.S. raid began.
That *could've* been related to an #HTS arrest campaign launched against #AlQaeda figures that day.
That *could've* been related to an #HTS arrest campaign launched against #AlQaeda figures that day.
Or, that district-wide security alert may have been in response to a tip-off given to #HTS -- but personally, that'd be *highly* unusual, so count me skeptical on that one.
Nevertheless, there are some intriguing details emerging here about #HTS's response to the U.S. raid.
Nevertheless, there are some intriguing details emerging here about #HTS's response to the U.S. raid.
The other #HTS angle here is that U.S. SOF fired on x2 #HTS fighters - one of whom is now dead & the other injured.
I have it on good authority they did not fire on anyone, but they approached the location (they lived in a nearby building); were deemed a threat & were fired on.
I have it on good authority they did not fire on anyone, but they approached the location (they lived in a nearby building); were deemed a threat & were fired on.
#HTS & its dynamics vis-a-vis #ISIS & #AlQaeda in NW #Syria are *very* complex, and few have actually dug into the details & evolution over time.
I did -- with a ~15,000 word deep dive, for @CTCWP. I don't think there's anything more detailed out there:
ctc.usma.edu/twenty-years-a…
I did -- with a ~15,000 word deep dive, for @CTCWP. I don't think there's anything more detailed out there:
ctc.usma.edu/twenty-years-a…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
