Thread by @Charles_Lister

Something big is going down in NW #Syria -- (a) U.S. helicopter gunships firing on a target in the #Jinderes area of #Afrin & (b) a possible SOF raid targeting Tauqir Sharif, a [former] #UK citizen in the Atmeh area of #Idlib.

Personally, I'd be amazed if such an operation was launched at Tauqir Sharif (Abu Hossam al-Britani) -- while his #UK citizenship was revoked, the cause for doing so never seemed more than tenuous.

The house in the #Atmeh area has reportedly been surrounded by [alleged U.S.] SOF -- a loudspeaker just ordered the building to be emptied.



My guess: it's a senior #AlQaeda (Huras al-Din) figure -- HaD seniors are known to hide in the Atmeh area.

Update: I'm reliably told this has nothing to do with Tauqir Sharif.

What do we know?

- 2 helicopter-borne ops: 1 in Jinderes and 1 in #Atmeh (Dayr Balut).
- The Atmeh raid has involved a ground landing of SOF troops, with an audibly American voice demanding the building empty.
- Shots fired at both locations.

This only happens with very HVTs.

I know for a fact that #AlQaeda seniors have used #Atmeh & its vast IDP population as a hideout area for years -- and since mid-2021, senior AQ folks have also hidden themselves in rural areas of #Afrin district.

It could be #ISIS-related, but I'd bet on AQ. Time will tell.

NEW - Tauqir Sharif denies having anything to do with what's going on in NW #Syria right now:

https://twitter.com/mohamad_alayid/status/1489010647975219201

Multiple U.S. jets, helicopters & drones are in the skies of NW #Syria & southern #Turkey -- amid these x2 simultaneous SOF raids.

Nothing of this scale has happened since #Baghdadi was killed in October 2019.

[Alleged U.S.] SOF personnel have been on the ground in Dayr Balut (nr #Atmeh) for nearly an hour now.

Heavy clashes have broken out in the vicinity of the targeted house -- after an attempt to remove women & children reportedly came to nothing.

While *a lot* remains unclear, if this was a Huras al-Din target, then an operation of this scale (& duration: 1hr+ now), it'd almost certainly be one of the U.S. most wanted #AlQaeda veterans:

- Samir Hijazi (Abu Hamam al-Suri)
- Abu Abd al-Karim al-Masri
- Sami al-Oraydi

Locals in the #Atmeh area say [U.S.] SOF forces have closed the #Atmeh-Dayr Balut road & have fired on several vehicles approaching them.

Locals also claim 1+ RPG & a round of anti-aircraft gun fire has targeted [U.S.] SOF personnel on the ground -- allegedly causing casualties.

NEW -- U.S. forces & helicopters have opened fire on the surrounded house in Dayr Balut, #Atmeh.

Audio clear here:

Tons of rumors swirling around (is it AQ? Is it #ISIS leader Qardash?) -- what *is* very clear now is that this [U.S.] operation is not going to plan.. at all.

They've been on the ground & engaged in on/off clashes for 90mins, a scenario that'd normally rule out any SOF op.

Some new info:

#HTS checkpts leading to #Atmeh have just received reinforcements, *allegedly* to block any movement to/from the site of the U.S. raid.

The name "Abu Obaydah" is being claimed as the target -- the only senior AQ Abu Obaydah I know of is #Zawahiri's #Syria envoy.

One source near #Atmeh tells me the raid initially started at 1am local time -- so that'd actually be over 2hrs ago.

That's *extremely* unusual for an operation like this. More evidence of the likely important associated with the target.

More helicopters just arrived in scene.

Abu Obaydah al-Masri arrived in #Syria in 2015 -- dispatched personally by #Zawahiri, to whom he has a decades-long relationship. He's a member of #AlQaeda's global Shura council and was thought to have become Zawahiri's personal 'envoy' in #Syria.

NEW - locals say all U.S. helicopters have left the #Atmeh area altogether, along with all ground troops.

Outcome of the operation entirely unclear, for now.

Abu Obaydah al-Masri arrived in #Syria alongside another veteran #AlQaeda leader & global Shura member, Abd al-Karim al-Masri -- whose name is also being associated with tonight's raid.

Abu Obaydah and Abd al-Karim are arguably the most revered #AlQaeda leaders on #Syria-n soil.

Locals say #HTS forces have arrived at the scene of the U.S. SOF raid in Dayr Balut.

Within mins, several #HTS sources have begun claiming the raid targeted senior Huras al-Din leader Sami al-Oraydi (Nusra's former deputy leader & for a time, HaD's deputy, under Samir Hijazi).

Locals on the scene report that x9 bodies have been discovered in the targeted 2-story building in Dayr Balut -- allegedly including 3 children & 1 woman.

Nothing in terms of any IDs, or whether someone was taken away in the helicopters - alive or dead.

Very grisly photos are coming out of the targeted site in Dayr Balut -- including the dead woman & children.

#AlQaeda sources are lashing out online at #HTS -- earlier today, #HTS arrested several senior Huras al-Din figures in #Idlib. Hours later, U.S. SOF launch a major raid.

3hrs ago, U.S. SOF helicopters landed at a residential building in Dayr Balut in NW #Syria -- and for ~2hrs, sought to evacuate non-combatants & capture an unknown target.

Fighting broke out & 9 people were killed (incl. 3 kids & a woman). Unclear if target was killed/captured.

It was clear for some time that the SOF operation wasn't going to plan -- 2hrs at site is very unusual & high-risk.

The house was virtually leveled, the helicopters left, but several drone strikes have since followed.

BIG questions around this one -- let's wait for more info.

There were widespread claims during the stand-off that U.S. SOF may have suffered casualties, as a result of enemy RPG & heavy machine gun fire -- but there's no confirmation on that.

There's no doubt that this was a U.S. operation, so DOD will confirm when the time is right.

After the botched #Kabul strike in Aug 2021, U.S. counterterrorism policy has been placed under the microscope -- with successive serious revelations from the @nytimes.

The optics of the raid in #Idlib tonight look decidedly bad for now -- multiple civilian/young child deaths.

@nytimes According to air flight monitors inside #Idlib, drones have been flying over the province, particularly near al-Dana and Sarmada, over the past hour.

@nytimes I'm told DOD has been unusually cagey about its plans all this week & @CENTCOM commander McKenzie's planned schedule for tomorrow (in DC) has been cleared.

It certainly seems like tonight's raid in #Idlib was targeting someone of very high rank -- whether in #AlQaeda or #ISIS.

@nytimes @CENTCOM NEW - sources on the ground in #Idlib are beginning to think last night's U.S. SOF raid in #Atmeh, #Idlib may have targeted #ISIS leader Abdullah Qardash -- but unclear if he was found/killed/captured.

13 killed, including 6 children & 4 women.

White House statement expected.

@nytimes @CENTCOM NEW - I'm also getting some speculation from a small number of sources close to the USG that the target could have been #AlQaeda leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri (would be truly wild, for a number of reasons).

What's clear is something big happened; very unusual for USG to be so cagey.

@nytimes @CENTCOM Images beginning to emerge showing the wreckage of a crashed ['stealth'] U.S. SOF chopper near #Afrin -- which was subsequently destroyed in an airstrike.

@nytimes @CENTCOM A lot of speculation right now is being based off images of a male corpse found at the scene -- claiming it looks like #ISIS leader Qardash.

First off, I don't think it does.

Second, in almost any case, U.S. forces would not have left the targeted body behind.

BREAKING - President #Biden confirms the overnight SOF raid in #Idlib killed #ISIS leader Abdullah Qardash.

Wow, not at all where I’d had expected him to be.

Lots of initial Qs about #Qardash's killing in #Idlib -- hiding there, like for #Baghdadi, was akin to hiding in the enemy's lair.

#HTS has been in a state of hostility with #ISIS for 8yrs -- still killing off #ISIS cells to this day.

#Atmeh is a complex place though.

#Atmeh is flooded with IDPs & a very fluid environment -- a constant movement of people, most displaced. Traditionally, it's been used by #AlQaeda & associated foreign fighter groups as a hideout, for leadership & covert operatives.

For #ISIS, that's very complex & risky.

So far, the U.S. [private] explanation for civilian/non-combatant casualties is that #Qardash detonated a suicide vest inside the building.

Not sure we'll ever see evidence of that -- but optics (6 kids & 4 women dead) are troubling, even taking into account #Qardash's death.

Last thing before I head offline for 2hrs -- was intel picked up/intercepted following #ISIS's attack on al-Sina Prison 2 weeks ago?

It's hard not to see some correlation -- otherwise, a huge coincidence.

As the dust settles from the overnight raid in NW #Syria, USG messaging is clearly portraying Haji Abdullah/Qardash as a leader fully in command - constantly in comms & coordinating operatives in the field, including in the recent #Hasakeh prison assault.

That runs contrary to the USG's public messaging - which has until now focused on an #ISIS in decline, weakened & decentralized.

It also appears that #Qurashi detonated explosives inside the building, causing substantial non-combatant casualties seen at the scene.

It appears clear now that 2 #HTS fighters living nearby were deemed in the moment to present a likely threat & were killed by U.S. SOF.

Local sources also described at the time, that #HTS checkpoints on the road to the raid site were being 'locked down' amid the operation.

.@PentagonPresSec confirms that DOD has verified 3 civilian fatalities from last night's raid in NW #Syria -- family members of #ISIS leader Qurashi on 3rd floor.

1 child was killed during a gun battle w. Qurashi's "lieutenant' on 2nd floor.

That leaves 6 more civilian deaths.

@PentagonPresSec Now comes the time when everyone stakes a claim of involvement in the operation -- first the #Iraqis & now the #SDF.

I'd pay an equal amount of attention to those who don't leap into claiming involvement too.