Thread by @NTenzer

I note with concern that this interview of @EmmanuelMacron with @leJDD raises a lot of concerns, not unfounded, among our Allies.
I also wonder if it was entirely appropriate on the eve of a discussion with Vladimir Putin.
#Thread
1/8
lejdd.fr/International/…

1 First, on the process, was it appropriate to publicly state his positions? Is it not, unintentionally of course, giving the enemy an advantage? This is also a problem of diplomatic #communication.
Something that I stresed here.
2/8
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/how-well-can…

2 Secondly, while our Allies remain distrustful & suspicious, this text risks increasing their distrust & thus the division of the EU on this subject. This may increase our fragility. It would have been wise to give the opposite signal.
My @cepa piece.
3/8
cepa.org/does-france-ha…

3 On the substance, the essential thing is to support #Ukraine. @EmmanuelMacron is clear on this, but the stated objective must be that Russian troops leave #Donbass and #Crimea, regardless of a new aggression. The war is still going on.
No compromise.
4/8
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/why-the-west…

4 The words used can also be confusing. Yes, we can "talk" with #Russia, but let's not speak of "dialogue" and let's not imply that there could be "negotiations". There couldn't be any.
Words matter as I emphasized on in my last piece.
5/8
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/discussions-…

5 The narrative is potentially problematic. There is no danger from @NATO to #Russia's security unless it wants to expand its zones of influence. @EmmanuelMacron says this between the lines, but why buy into Moscow's alleged security concerns?
6/8
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/fogs-of-war-…

6 Using the term "concessions" today is surprising. Concessions in what and on what? Why use the term "trust" again, which is inappropriate with this regime when we know its very nature? Discussions on arms control, yes. But that is where it ends.
7/8
politico.eu/article/emmanu…

7 Finally, talking about #Russia as if it were first & foremost a historical entity endowed with constancy, independently of its regime, makes no sense (a point already made by Raymond #Aron 60 years ago).
Knowing the regime is the first requirement.
8/8
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl…