#Putin's invasion of #Ukraine has thrown a spanner into the #Russia-#Turkey relationship.

That offers the U.S. (& NATO) an opportunity to explore avenues for improving ties with #Ankara -- far from straightforward, but it's an opening.

For #Syria policy, this could be vital.
War in #Ukraine will have extremely negative impact on the humanitarian situation in #Syria -- and #Russia is now more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid access in July.

Any alternative plans will be dead in the water, without #Turkey playing a central role. We need that.
The #Biden admin appears to already be preparing for a possible severing of X-border aid access -- in part by seeking to provide a full sanctions waiver to NE & NW #Syria.

But we'll also need a massive #Turkey-based aid effort to fill [some of] the gap resulting from a UN veto.
There are enormous obstacles to an improvement in US-#Turkey ties (S-400, #PKK-#SDF), but with NATO taking center stage vis-a-vis #Ukraine, there's rarely been a more opportune time to revisit these issues.

The Q is, does the U.S. have the bandwidth & political will to try?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Charles Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Charles_Lister

Mar 4
In the last 48hrs, #Syria's banned almost all food exports, amid acute concern about the implications of war in #Ukraine.

#Syria is *deeply* reliant on staple food (esp. wheat) shipments from #Russia via the Black Sea. Those shipments (& #Russia financial aid) have 100% stopped.
Already, #Syria's fiscal crisis, energy shortages, unprecedented drought & the resulting crippled agricultural output had seen some aid figures warn of a famine in 2022.

#Putin's war on #Ukraine has just placed those fears on steroids -- I'm told #Damascus is extremely worried.
To make matters even worse, the war in #Ukraine has distracted international attention from #Syria & its acute humanitarian crises -- donor payments will almost certainly decline & future pledges will be [further] cut, just as the humanitarian suffering looks destined to worsen.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
Bear in mind the true number is likely far higher, not to mention that 1,000s of #Russia troops who have fled &/or been captured.

That's a staggering scale of loss in less than a week. #Ukraine
#Russia is clearly taking painfully significant losses in #Ukraine -- and is now even admitting it.

That'll surely have domestic repercussions, but #Putin is unlikely to concede anything; he'll double down.

#Syria shows what a terrifying prospect that could be.
In #Syria, #Russia literally flattened urban centers; it facilitated & covered for chemical weapons use; it bombed UN aid convoys & reinforced brutal sieges that saw people eating grass & weeds for years.

#Putin cannot be shamed, only challenged -- but nobody has ever done that.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
NEW -- this may indicate #Russia intends to land ~2,500 troops outside #Kyiv in about an hour's time.
With an airfield outside #Kyiv already under Russian control, #Russia appears intent on taking the capital before the #EU, U.S. or anyone else even announces punitive measures.

These IL-76s could be landing within minutes, within city limits.
If reports are accurate that the #Ukraine military recaptured the Hostomel airfield outside #Kyiv tonight, that's no insignificant feat -- there were 150+ elite VDV paratroopers there earlier.

It'd also have stalled #Russia's plan to fly in a force to take the capital. For now.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
Chilling close from #Putin, clearly aimed at the U.S. & #NATO:

“A couple words for those who would be tempted to intervene. #Russia will respond immediately & you’ll have consequences that you’ve never had in your history.”
NEW - massive explosions being reported in #Ukraine’s capital #Kyiv, as well as #Kramatorsk & #Odessa.
Explosions are now also being reported in #Kharkiv & #Berdyansk -- as well as alleged gunfire at #Kyiv Airport.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 22
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:

- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.

airwars.org/news-and-inves…
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.

=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**

Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
Finally had the time to listen to this @TheRedLinePod on #Syria, which I had the pleasure of speaking in -- it's a good listen that covers a lot over 1hr 40mins.

I'd be remiss though if I didn't highlight significant issues with claims made by another -- so here's a thread:
@TheRedLinePod In his section, Joshua Landis says (1) the revolution "quickly" became one of #Syria's Sunnis against Christians & Alawites' & (2) that #AlQaeda "quickly" dominated armed opposition.

Absolute nonsense -- simply re-voicing the #Assad regime's self-fulfilling sectarian framing.
@TheRedLinePod Landis then turns to #ISIS, claiming:

- US helped Maliki fight #ISIS & #Russia helped #Assad "destroy" #ISIS (NO)

- US & #Assad were "allies" -- and that "helped Shiites in the US" (WHAT?)

- As a result of that alliance, the US decided in '13 not to overthrow Assad (DATES!)
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(