Chilling close from #Putin, clearly aimed at the U.S. & #NATO:

“A couple words for those who would be tempted to intervene. #Russia will respond immediately & you’ll have consequences that you’ve never had in your history.”
NEW - massive explosions being reported in #Ukraine’s capital #Kyiv, as well as #Kramatorsk & #Odessa.
Explosions are now also being reported in #Kharkiv & #Berdyansk -- as well as alleged gunfire at #Kyiv Airport.
NEW -- @CNN's @fpleitgenCNN, in #Belgorod, says #Russia fighter jets just flew overhead towards #Kharkiv, #Ukraine.
@CNN @fpleitgenCNN #Ukrainian Interior Ministry has confirmed a #Russia "invasion" is now underway & [cruise] missile strikes have hit the #Kyiv area.

Via @CNN.
@CNN @fpleitgenCNN Unconfirmed reports now that covert (& possibly airborne) #Russia troops have captured #Kyiv Airport tonight.

Intel intercepts had predicted that as an initial move.
@CNN @fpleitgenCNN Multiple sources -- U.S. intelligence believes a #Russia amphibious landing may be underway targeting the port in #Odessa, alongside targeted missile strikes.
@CNN @fpleitgenCNN #Ukraine's UN Amb., speaking directly to #Russia's Amb. Nebenzia:

- I want you to say on the record, that at this very moment, your troops do not shell and bomb #Ukrainian cities.. You have a smartphone, you can call #Lavrov right now!" Image
@CNN @fpleitgenCNN Daylight now emerging in #Ukraine, amid increasing reports of rocket & missile strikes.

With the sun up, the risk of #Russia ground maneuvers is acute. Troops already, allegedly, in #Odessa & #Kyiv airport.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Feb 24
NEW -- this may indicate #Russia intends to land ~2,500 troops outside #Kyiv in about an hour's time.
With an airfield outside #Kyiv already under Russian control, #Russia appears intent on taking the capital before the #EU, U.S. or anyone else even announces punitive measures.

These IL-76s could be landing within minutes, within city limits.
If reports are accurate that the #Ukraine military recaptured the Hostomel airfield outside #Kyiv tonight, that's no insignificant feat -- there were 150+ elite VDV paratroopers there earlier.

It'd also have stalled #Russia's plan to fly in a force to take the capital. For now.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:

- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.

airwars.org/news-and-inves…
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.

=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**

Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
Finally had the time to listen to this @TheRedLinePod on #Syria, which I had the pleasure of speaking in -- it's a good listen that covers a lot over 1hr 40mins.

I'd be remiss though if I didn't highlight significant issues with claims made by another -- so here's a thread:
@TheRedLinePod In his section, Joshua Landis says (1) the revolution "quickly" became one of #Syria's Sunnis against Christians & Alawites' & (2) that #AlQaeda "quickly" dominated armed opposition.

Absolute nonsense -- simply re-voicing the #Assad regime's self-fulfilling sectarian framing.
@TheRedLinePod Landis then turns to #ISIS, claiming:

- US helped Maliki fight #ISIS & #Russia helped #Assad "destroy" #ISIS (NO)

- US & #Assad were "allies" -- and that "helped Shiites in the US" (WHAT?)

- As a result of that alliance, the US decided in '13 not to overthrow Assad (DATES!)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
Two core takeaways so far:

1) #Putin is a paranoid madman (with control over 1,000s of nukes)

2) This is clearly a speech to #Russia’s people aimed at justifying serious & risky military action.
So deploying 190,000 troops was a move aimed at recognising #Donetsk & #Luhansk

Yeah, that’s not convincing to me either. #Putin has a bigger game at play here.
And so it begins… This is #Putin’s intended slippery slope for #Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
U.S. intel expects the invasion to begin next week, beginning with x2 days of airstrikes, artillery & electronic warfare, followed by a mass ground invasion seeking regime change in #Kyiv.

All per @nickschifrin, citing x3 Western & defense officials.
@nickschifrin In a new announcement, the #UK has called on all citizens to leave #Ukraine "while commercial means are still available" -- which is as clear an indication of where we're headed.

Meanwhile, ceasefire violations are *rocketing* in #Donetsk & #Luhansk:

@nickschifrin U.S. National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 confirms reporting that a #Russia invasion of #Ukraine could begin during the Olympics, but won't comment on specific intelligence.

"We're in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should #Putin decide to order it."
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.
I'd give this vision a 0% chance of success.

There's just no way #Iran would re-enter the #JCPOA, take sanctions relief etc., and then agree to join a longer & more strict deal. It's a fantasy.
.@ChrisMurphyCT:

- "Now is the time for #Biden’s negotiating team to make the smart but necessary concessions to restart some version of #Obama’s nuclear deal."

No doubt #Trump put us in a horrible position, but framing things like this is problematic.

time.com/6146540/trumps… Image
Read 4 tweets

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