With an airfield outside #Kyiv already under Russian control, #Russia appears intent on taking the capital before the #EU, U.S. or anyone else even announces punitive measures.
These IL-76s could be landing within minutes, within city limits.
If reports are accurate that the #Ukraine military recaptured the Hostomel airfield outside #Kyiv tonight, that's no insignificant feat -- there were 150+ elite VDV paratroopers there earlier.
It'd also have stalled #Russia's plan to fly in a force to take the capital. For now.
Per U.S. intel, #Russia will inflict a "massive bombardment" on #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv.
This invasion is only in the very opening stage -- less than 25% of #Russia's 190,000 deployed force is currently involved.
Per #Ukraine President Zelenskyy, #Russia covert SOF are now inside #Kyiv (on outer limits) and likely to begin sabotage operations tonight.
U.S. intel says a massive shelling of the city is also planned to begin tonight, in less than 2hrs time (3am local).
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Chilling close from #Putin, clearly aimed at the U.S. & #NATO:
“A couple words for those who would be tempted to intervene. #Russia will respond immediately & you’ll have consequences that you’ve never had in your history.”
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:
- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.
That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.
=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**
Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
Finally had the time to listen to this @TheRedLinePod on #Syria, which I had the pleasure of speaking in -- it's a good listen that covers a lot over 1hr 40mins.
I'd be remiss though if I didn't highlight significant issues with claims made by another -- so here's a thread:
@TheRedLinePod In his section, Joshua Landis says (1) the revolution "quickly" became one of #Syria's Sunnis against Christians & Alawites' & (2) that #AlQaeda "quickly" dominated armed opposition.
U.S. intel expects the invasion to begin next week, beginning with x2 days of airstrikes, artillery & electronic warfare, followed by a mass ground invasion seeking regime change in #Kyiv.
All per @nickschifrin, citing x3 Western & defense officials.
@nickschifrin In a new announcement, the #UK has called on all citizens to leave #Ukraine "while commercial means are still available" -- which is as clear an indication of where we're headed.
Meanwhile, ceasefire violations are *rocketing* in #Donetsk & #Luhansk:
@nickschifrin U.S. National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 confirms reporting that a #Russia invasion of #Ukraine could begin during the Olympics, but won't comment on specific intelligence.
"We're in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should #Putin decide to order it."
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.