NEW -- this may indicate #Russia intends to land ~2,500 troops outside #Kyiv in about an hour's time.
With an airfield outside #Kyiv already under Russian control, #Russia appears intent on taking the capital before the #EU, U.S. or anyone else even announces punitive measures.

These IL-76s could be landing within minutes, within city limits.
If reports are accurate that the #Ukraine military recaptured the Hostomel airfield outside #Kyiv tonight, that's no insignificant feat -- there were 150+ elite VDV paratroopers there earlier.

It'd also have stalled #Russia's plan to fly in a force to take the capital. For now.
Per U.S. intel, #Russia will inflict a "massive bombardment" on #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv.

This invasion is only in the very opening stage -- less than 25% of #Russia's 190,000 deployed force is currently involved.
Per #Ukraine President Zelenskyy, #Russia covert SOF are now inside #Kyiv (on outer limits) and likely to begin sabotage operations tonight.

U.S. intel says a massive shelling of the city is also planned to begin tonight, in less than 2hrs time (3am local).

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Charles Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Charles_Lister

Feb 24
Chilling close from #Putin, clearly aimed at the U.S. & #NATO:

“A couple words for those who would be tempted to intervene. #Russia will respond immediately & you’ll have consequences that you’ve never had in your history.”
NEW - massive explosions being reported in #Ukraine’s capital #Kyiv, as well as #Kramatorsk & #Odessa.
Explosions are now also being reported in #Kharkiv & #Berdyansk -- as well as alleged gunfire at #Kyiv Airport.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 22
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:

- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.

airwars.org/news-and-inves…
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.

=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**

Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
Finally had the time to listen to this @TheRedLinePod on #Syria, which I had the pleasure of speaking in -- it's a good listen that covers a lot over 1hr 40mins.

I'd be remiss though if I didn't highlight significant issues with claims made by another -- so here's a thread:
@TheRedLinePod In his section, Joshua Landis says (1) the revolution "quickly" became one of #Syria's Sunnis against Christians & Alawites' & (2) that #AlQaeda "quickly" dominated armed opposition.

Absolute nonsense -- simply re-voicing the #Assad regime's self-fulfilling sectarian framing.
@TheRedLinePod Landis then turns to #ISIS, claiming:

- US helped Maliki fight #ISIS & #Russia helped #Assad "destroy" #ISIS (NO)

- US & #Assad were "allies" -- and that "helped Shiites in the US" (WHAT?)

- As a result of that alliance, the US decided in '13 not to overthrow Assad (DATES!)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
Two core takeaways so far:

1) #Putin is a paranoid madman (with control over 1,000s of nukes)

2) This is clearly a speech to #Russia’s people aimed at justifying serious & risky military action.
So deploying 190,000 troops was a move aimed at recognising #Donetsk & #Luhansk

Yeah, that’s not convincing to me either. #Putin has a bigger game at play here.
And so it begins… This is #Putin’s intended slippery slope for #Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
U.S. intel expects the invasion to begin next week, beginning with x2 days of airstrikes, artillery & electronic warfare, followed by a mass ground invasion seeking regime change in #Kyiv.

All per @nickschifrin, citing x3 Western & defense officials.
@nickschifrin In a new announcement, the #UK has called on all citizens to leave #Ukraine "while commercial means are still available" -- which is as clear an indication of where we're headed.

Meanwhile, ceasefire violations are *rocketing* in #Donetsk & #Luhansk:

@nickschifrin U.S. National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 confirms reporting that a #Russia invasion of #Ukraine could begin during the Olympics, but won't comment on specific intelligence.

"We're in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should #Putin decide to order it."
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.
I'd give this vision a 0% chance of success.

There's just no way #Iran would re-enter the #JCPOA, take sanctions relief etc., and then agree to join a longer & more strict deal. It's a fantasy.
.@ChrisMurphyCT:

- "Now is the time for #Biden’s negotiating team to make the smart but necessary concessions to restart some version of #Obama’s nuclear deal."

No doubt #Trump put us in a horrible position, but framing things like this is problematic.

time.com/6146540/trumps… Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(