One word @CaitlinLong_: GREED.
You’ve been spot on. I struggled w/ noticing the same issue of #derivative and #TradFi games infecting #bitcoin & #Crypto over the last 1.5yrs or so.
Structurally it was quite easy to see. But...
/1 👉🧵 on a few thoughts.
You’ve been spot on. I struggled w/ noticing the same issue of #derivative and #TradFi games infecting #bitcoin & #Crypto over the last 1.5yrs or so.
Structurally it was quite easy to see. But...
/1 👉🧵 on a few thoughts.
you have to know how these things have played out in other markets as well as how intermarket relationships work within markets in general. And, you never really know how the change will play out. Especially, in new asset classes like #DigitalAssets.
/2
/2
It felt like most in the space chose not to acknowledge the changes & continue to pump the narrative of NGU and BTFD with little regard for what’s *actually* happening w/ the fundamental picture. Time horizon matters. All participants have different goals.
/3
/3
The fundamental change was twofold (probably more):
1. Broader #WallSt adoption - casino mentality w/ #leverage
2. Mass adoption - “I can make a living trading” or erosion of #hodl culture (the avg person has a very high time preference).
/4
1. Broader #WallSt adoption - casino mentality w/ #leverage
2. Mass adoption - “I can make a living trading” or erosion of #hodl culture (the avg person has a very high time preference).
/4
With infrastructure in place & regulations scant, #degen leverage was used by both, while OGs and holders seemingly became obsessed w/ seeking yield for the first time.
The latter was largely unavailable and considered unacceptable in prior cycles.
/5
The latter was largely unavailable and considered unacceptable in prior cycles.
/5
Enter the #lending games, #leverage, & #rehypothecation. I’m guessing the historic accounts of money changing forms felt like?
It seems we’re at that conversion pt. w/ the US’s EO & acknowledgment last week.
kanemcgukin.substack.com/p/the-white-ho…
🙏 it's genuine.
/6
It seems we’re at that conversion pt. w/ the US’s EO & acknowledgment last week.
kanemcgukin.substack.com/p/the-white-ho…
🙏 it's genuine.
/6
Personally, the leverage/manipulation conversations I attempted to have seemed to fall on deaf ears.
It's hard to battle the ideals of there is “no bear market” in #bitcoin. Or, “you can’t corrupt the hardest soundest money ever”.
/7
It's hard to battle the ideals of there is “no bear market” in #bitcoin. Or, “you can’t corrupt the hardest soundest money ever”.
/7
While great narratives to #pump… all money is corruptible (you’ve noted) & only gold has survived for thousands of yrs.
#boomer rocks may not be popular (not a $gold bug), but that’s the fact.
#btc's had a phenomenal run to date, but asset allocation is still required.
/8
#boomer rocks may not be popular (not a $gold bug), but that’s the fact.
#btc's had a phenomenal run to date, but asset allocation is still required.
/8
Anyone interested in finding out what real money & wealth is should sit through the 39 lessons by @HassanBoyle 👉
/9
/9
Or, listen to our conversation on some of these topics
/10
https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1498314163893977088?s=20&t=RQRe5JSZDbzIPYFEy9Kzcg
/10
Fortunately, in regard to these games, I was able to discuss some of these points w/ @FossGregFoss
/11
https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1487154692467658752?s=20&t=ZMptslbQEZvAJ4dsOET3bg
/11
And in more detail on the #TradFi derivatives games with @LawrenceLepard
/12
https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1480913846806224904?s=20&t=ZMptslbQEZvAJ4dsOET3bg
/12
There is still much promise for #btc & #crypto. Together, they can provide a means for struggling individuals & nations to opt-out, even if temporary.
/13
https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1479284087105884160?s=20&t=ZMptslbQEZvAJ4dsOET3bg
/13
As all markets do, #Crypto is finding that when all views pt in one direction participants miss what’s right in front of their face.
At that pt, markets change course. That's just part of being a participant. @nntaleb covers this well in The Black Swan.
/14
At that pt, markets change course. That's just part of being a participant. @nntaleb covers this well in The Black Swan.
/14
Sound #money is a great thing. It’s necessary for the foundations of a booming economy that can last generations.
Yet, growth and production within an economy require more than sound money to generate wealth.
/15
Yet, growth and production within an economy require more than sound money to generate wealth.
/15
Sound money alone is not the only driver of an economy, though it is the core at the beginning of new cycles.
/16
https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1481980980277694465?s=20&t=RQRe5JSZDbzIPYFEy9Kzcg
/16
Were youth & lack of asset market experience the cause of what was missed in this cycle?
Too much reliance on the nuances of the #tech behind the #digitalAsset?
Or, boredom? Creating the feeling of needing to do something; using #leverage for an adrenaline pump?
/17
Too much reliance on the nuances of the #tech behind the #digitalAsset?
Or, boredom? Creating the feeling of needing to do something; using #leverage for an adrenaline pump?
/17
Even if the #leverage meant succumbing to the greed and high time preference that so many shout from the hilltops to avoid.
I say these things tongue in cheek w/ the goal of better understanding the foundational details.
/18
I say these things tongue in cheek w/ the goal of better understanding the foundational details.
/18
I believe fundamentals are what get us through bear mkts & allow #builders to have the confidence to continue on & make the space better in #future years, hopefully ridding out some of the bad.
/19
/19
Original context:
https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1503716226798960649?s=20&t=XkiJ-zhkpUd71qeComhkcg
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