Thread by @kanemcgukin

Time for a 🧵 on two charts (at the end) that seem to tell an interesting #Bitcoin story.

For several yrs @CaitlinLong_ has openly discussed the potential negative impact of #rehypothecation of #bitcoin by banks, wall street, hedge funds & the broader #tradfi community.

@saylor has discussed and shown the need for sound money and the value that having a savings mechanism brings to the system.

@JeffBooth has shed light on the fact that #deflation isn’t such a bad thing when #technology is actually making our lives better and costs cheaper.

@saifedean taught the 🌏 the importance of time, effort, and energy & the value that living by the #Bitcoin Standard can bring to individuals and countries across the globe.

@FossGregfoss has done a phenomenal job helping to #educate on the benefits of owning #volatile #assets.

@PrestonPysh, @LynAldenContact, @RayDalio, and @PeterMcCormack create content that has made it much easier for the average person to understand the finer points of #Bitcoin, the #economy, and the broader financial system.

These individuals along with your own curiosity about financial history can help you understand how all of these work together.

IMO… In #crypto, too much time is spent bickering over what #coin or #token is the best.

Most of the bickering revolves around “what is #money?”

#Money is construct backed by #faith and belief - faith that someone will take the unit you are using for the good or service they have.

A good money should provide more in the #future for your efforts today. That’s all money is. It’s not backed by anything other than faith

Among all the bickering, there is little consideration for the fact that there are really two separate markets, if not more, that make up the #cryptocurrency ecosystem.

1. #bitcoin is geared to be money > it solves the problem of a lacking savings mechanism.

2. #Ethereum, #NFTs, #Web3 (see @cdixon) are geared toward #tech innovation > they solve the lack of #banking #innovation and lack of connectivity / speed.

https://twitter.com/kanemcgukin/status/1403057325498318853?s=20

In 2017 CME #Bitcoin futures were released… for a reason… which matches the recent angst and questioning over why @GaryGensler would allow a futures-based #btc #ETF and not a spot ETF???

Looking at the details and the finer points of #financial market history, it seems to align less w/ the ideals of investor protection and more so favors commercial market participants & banks.

Read: Lords of Finance, When Money Dies, and Debt & Delusion if you aren’t exactly sure how financial markets, panics, and changes around money take hold.

The #stockmarket gambling of 2020 isn't that big of an anomaly when viewed through the lens of history.

If you follow the path of the geopolitical transgressions from the early 1900s through the end of WWII, one can easily see how we sit in much the same position in today's world. Both from a #currency and #Nation #State jockeying standpoint.

The driver of this thread is much deeper than the synopsis laid out above but it was triggered by charts of $GOLD and #btc that I’ve been watching for months.

In a recent podcast, @LawrenceLepard with @FossGregfoss hinted at exactly what I’ve been 👀👀. It’s a concern, though lower probability, that seems overlooked or misunderstood by the broader #Bitcoin community.

https://twitter.com/BITCOINALLCAPS/status/1461685942771716099?s=20

What is pointed out, is this is how governments & financial institutions suppressed the price of #gold to continue to kick the #keynesian can down the road. Don’t be fooled. Now that futures are fully in play this is absolutely something that can happen just as easily to #btc.

Yes, @CaitlinLong_ has been right.
Yes, @LawrenceLepard and @FossGregfoss are right.
Yes, #Bitcoin can be manipulated or suppressed with #Leverage and #rehypothecation that futures markets allow.

That is what is important about a futures #ETF approval over a spot approval.

That’s what’s important about the growing #btc futures & #options markets which obfuscate transactions more so than spot. These tools are that of the titans of #WallStreet and allow both directional exposure and capture of #volatility.

This is a weekly chart of #gold from 1975 until 1981 and $GOLD did not find its bottom until 2001 (71% decline) and did not reach these highs again until 27 years later in 2007.

#btc’s current chart structure looks very similar to where $gold sat back then. Not all charts will repeat but looking across many assets & across various timeframes can provide quality insight. Bc, human psychology drives markets. The events change but the responses rarely do.

It’s important to understand what happened when Nixon “removed” the #gold standard (also in the 1930s) in 1971. During the early stages of massive debasing of #money, the broad futures markets were also being built out to suppress the #SoundMoney of that day 👉 gold.

Ways of suppressing the price of $gold were being developed and used in order to kick the #keynesian #debt can down the road. It successfully happened for 50 more years.

I’m not sure what the future holds but these two charts look too similar to overlook.

As #Bitcoin #derivatives #BUIDL out & we see #tradfi tactics invade crypto #markets. The more important the warnings of @CaitlinLong_, @LawrenceLepard, and @FossGregfoss become around $BITO, #futures, and rehypothecation.

If I recall, @TuurDemeester once posted that historically, the introduction of #futures into new and #volatile #assets tend to suppress price into a more stable range. If it's true, then we could definitely see a change in the way #Bitcoin behaves going forward.

Especially considering the amount of speculation that now takes place vs. the mentality of #hodl of years past.

These are my personal opinions and not financial advice.