More #Russiasanctions do not necessarily increase the probability of #Peace, it could end up meaning the opposite. Many rightly point out that #oilandgas revenues dull the G7 block of Russian foreign exchange and have helped stabilize the #Ruble, at least for now. But...🧵
...we've never had sanctions like this and may be losing tabs on the strategy. Is a sovereign default a pre-requisite? Is there a bleed-rate on the #Ruble that equals a bleed-rate in the #war? We want to punish--understandably--but with what outcome?
We overestimated #RussianArmy and underestimated #Ukraine, thought we needed to hit immediately. But things have changed. Russia will fight an insurgency. This gives #sanctions and #Export controls more time. It also means in conflict, the return on additional sanctions weakens.
Further disruption of global #oilandgas markets could have ramifications we cannot currently calculate. It's not just about European #Industry, it's about a network of democratic and non-democratic trading nations with divergent interests who still must find common benefit.
Yes, we could force a Russian default (they're likely well on their way already). But upholding oil restrictions would require secondary #sanctions threats on the world. Do we want that? Does #India? Governments hold the bag on these decisions, not only for now, but for decades.
Lesson being: we have to be very careful. I say this as someone who considers herself, relatively speaking, a hawk.
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