Thread by @jseldin

NEW: Day 30 of #Russia' invasion of #Ukraine - "We've more than 1,250 missile launches since the start" per a senior US defense official

Russian forces "no closer than they were " to #Kyiv, per the officials "They are in defensive positions..."

#Makariv - "at the very least contested & may now be in #Ukrainian control" per a senior US defense official

#Chernihiv - "No real progress there" by #Russia|n forces, per a senior US defense official

#Ukraine forces - "some indications they are pushing the #Russians back"

#Russia still trying to block off #Kharkiv but being met with heavy resistance from #Ukraine forces" per a senior US defense official

#Izyum - #Russia appears to broken through a #Ukraine line there, getting closer, per a senior US defense official

"We think they're trying to cut off the #Donbas area...but they haven't gotten much farther than that [progress in Izyum]" per official

#Russia "prioritizing the #Donbas...publicly acknowledged" per a senior US defense official

"Trying to secure some sort of gains" to secure better negotiating position per official

#Mariupol - "Vicious, vicious fighting continues there" per a senior US defense official

Heavy #Russia|n bombardment continues

NEW: #Ukraine "They did strike a #Russia|n LST" in #Berdyansk, per a senior US defense official

"It appears from the images we've seen, they destroyed that ship" official says, adding ship appears to have been on a resupply mission for fighting near #Mariupol

#Kherson - "Reports of resistance there of areas that previously were reported to be in #Russia\n control" per a senior US defense official

"Kherson is contested territory again"

#Mykolaiv - Russian forces still about 15km outside the city to S, SE, w/heavy fighting, per a senior US defense official

#Ukraine's airspace still contested on Day 30 - "We do see that the #Russia|ns are concentrating their airstrikes in #Kyiv, #Chernihiv" and in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"No activity in #Odesa, no sign they [#Russia] are about to assault Odesa" per a senior US defense official

#Belarus - no signs Belarusians will join the fight, per a senior US defense official

Also - cannot confirm #Russia

NEW: #Russia trying to move in some reinforcements from #Georgia to the fight in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Overall, Russia combat power down to less than 90% - "They continue to expend their resources" but no indication of imminent resupply from elsewhere

Heavy fighting NW of #Kyiv - in #Bucha #Irpin, per a senior US defense official

#Russia as of now "NOT pursuing a ground offensive toward #Kyiv" per official, as #Moscow appears to be prioritizing the #Donbas

"The defensive crouch they're [#Russia] taking in #Kyiv is consistent w/their desire now to be more aggressive" in the East, per a senior US defense official

Russia appear not to want to take Kyiv now "frankly at all"

#Russia still flying about 300 sorties a day, concentrating on #Kyiv, #Chernihiv and the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"But the Donbas, that's where their focus is right now" per official

Just over 100,000 US troops in #Europe - "there's no change to their presence on the ground" or at sea w/the USS Harry S Truman, per a senior US defense official

"The thing they're [#Russia] running the lowest on is cruise missile, particularly air-launched cruise missiles" per a senior US defense official

"There dwindling stocks are starting to be a factor" official adds re: precision guided munitions

#Russia missile problems - "We think they have experienced failures in some of their missiles, particularly cruise missiles....failure to actually launch or to hit the target" per a senior US defense official

Does not share any numbers/estimates on failure rates

#Russia intelligence failures - "Clearly they overestimated their ability to take #Kyiv...to take any population center" per a senior US defense official

#Russia's chances in the #Donbas - "I don't think anybody shud write off the #Donbas as something that is not going to be significantly fought for by the #Ukrainians" per a senior US defense official

Talks to get #Ukraine long-range air defense systems still ongoing, per a senior US defense official

#DPRK test of a new, long-range ballistic missile - "We're still assessing the intelligence on this launch" per a senior US defense official

#NorthKorea

US unsure of where #Russia|n reinforcements coming from #Georgia will be headed, per a senior US defense official

"You can see for yourself how they [#Russia] have tried to make up for the fact they haven't been able to move well on the ground" per a senior US defense official, pointing to "dreadful" bombing of #Mariupol

A couple of shipments from the new $800 million US security assistance package arriving now in #Ukraine

"Another flight arrived in the region today" per a senior US defense official, who says 3 more flights expected to land in the region in the next 3 days

"This is a relatively new decision by the #Russia|ns" a senior US defense official says of Russian focus on the #Donbas

#Russia has 22 ships in #BlackSea, 15 of which are surface combatants, per a senior US defense official

Most of the rest are amphibious

NEW: #Russia|n failure rate w/precision guided missiles has been at times "significant" per a senior US defense official

Official does not push back vs reports the failure rate could be bteween 20%-%60

NEW: #Russia|n forces "continue to suffer from significant command & control problems" per a senior US defense official

Official says Russian commanders having trouble talking w/troops in the field & with being able to talk to one another