Since this article on #import duties as implicit #export taxes went to 'print', I received some very good feedback, so let me add two points below to add clarity mechanisms at play here. ๐๐
1\ An 'innocent' 10% #import duty on bikes increases the relative profits of selling domestically versus #exporting by 40%! thus deterring new #exporters [assumptions are based on @PBSofficialpak numbers!]
Table below takes you through it. #Pakistan#Trade ๐๐
2\ From a #policy angle, how do you shift from an #ImportSubstitution mindset (which is the same as saying #Export substitution one) to an #Export led growth one? All of a sudden? No. Here are some ideas. #Pakistan
PS: thanks to @MOPasha84 for helping make the case clearer.
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Thank you for the feedback, dear Yousuf. If you read the article carefully, you will see this is specific & data driven. A short thread to explain. ๐๐๐
Figure 2 in the article is built from a careful analysis combining micro-level *data* from all listed firms in Pakistan, & effective rates of protection (calculated based on FBR data on import duties and the latest input output *data* from IFPRI. It conveys the key message. ๐
Figure 3 comes from a careful econometric analysis we did w/@StefaniaLovo in which we recover markups from the data, and estimated systematic effects of changes in #import duties on these markups. It conveys the key message. ๐
Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short ๐งต๐ w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply#chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. ๐๐๐
The largest untapped #export potentials for #Pakistan are with #China, and with its own region, #SouthAsia, for about 13 and 12.5 billion respectively, stressing the importance #regional#integration initiatives. 3/n
1/n Since the turn of the century, #Pakistan has become a more inward oriented economy, with exports/GDP falling from 16 to 10%.
2/n As a result, #Pakistan's share of world markets fell from 16USD to 12USD out of every 1000USD traded between 1990 and 2019. #Bangladesh moved from 5 to 18USD in the same period. #Vietnam from 14 to 113USD!!!